Update on Global Passenger Car Landscape 2015: Full-Year Sales of cars in the World’s 10 Largest Markets

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Aggregated full-year 2015 car sales in Top-10 grow slightly in 2015 but global rankings change

Passenger car sales in the world’s 10 largest car markets, who’s aggregated (full-year) sales accounted for 77.8% of 2014 global car sales, amounted to 59.29 million in 2015, up 1.4% from 2014 (58.49 million).

Even though the status of global car sales, here represented by the 10 largest car markets, is relatively stable comparing to 2014, a significant change in the global ranking in terms of P.C sales has occurred.

Recovery of major Western European car markets, combined with the continuous slowdown of Russia and Brazil, resulted in the latter losing 3 positions each in global ranking by car sales; Brazil from 4th in 2014, to 7th in 2015 and Russia from 7th in 2014 to 10th in 2015.

On the contrary, Germany and India climbed one spot each whereas the UK and France two spots each, now 6th and 8th respectively.

Top-10 car sales grew just 1.4% in 2015 despite growth in 8 out of 10 car markets

Eight out of the ten key car markets recorded considerable growth in 2015 over the year before.

Sales in China experienced the largest unit increase (+1,439,473) among all the examined markets during this 12 month period, followed by Western Europe which gained almost 1.2ml sales from 2014 respectively.

However, the severe downturn of car sales in Russia (-35.7% year-on year, or 890,188 units less than 2014), Japan (-10.3% y-y, -483,700), and Brazil (-25.6%, -852,950) respectively did not allow the combined sales in Top-10 car markets to grow more than 799,241 unit sales from 2014.

Reverse growth trends for Asia’s leaders

Car sales in China amounted to 21.15 million as the world’s largest car market continued to expand in 2015, but at a lower rate of 7.3% over 2014. SUVs and MPVs recorded strong growth of 52.4% and 10.1% year-on-year respectively demonstrating a consumer preference shift away from sedans, the prevailing segment.

Furthermore, the government’s decision (Oct’15) to halve taxes for the purchase of cars with 1.6 litre engines or smaller until the end of 2016 boosted growth of 10.38% in these types of cars; now they account for 68.6% of total sales of passenger cars.

On the contrary, in Japan, car sales dropped by 10.3% in 2015 comparing to 2014 following a moderate recovery of the domestic economy and an increase in the mini-vehicle tax in April 2015 (Apr 2014 saw also a hike in national consumption tax). All car segments experienced declining sales; Standard (-5.8% y-y), Small (-5.1%), and Mini cars (-17.8%) respectively. As a result, the Japanese market returned to the 2010 sales’ levels.

NAFTA grows but Brazil shrinks

Moderate economic growth and low fuel prices enabled the U.S car market to achieve the 6th consecutive year of growth as sales of Light Vehicles grew by 5.7% in 2015 comparing to 2014. Demand was driven by soaring sales of Crossovers (+18.5% y-y) and SUVs (+10.7% y-y).

In Brazil, the combination of weak economic activity, high inflation and interest rates have damaged consumers’ confidence. Consequently, domestic car sales contracted by 25.6% in 2015 comparing to the year before.

Recovery of the Western Europe compensated for falling sales in Russia

The recovery of the Western Europe car market continued in 2015 (9.2% y-y) driven by improving economic conditions and credit availability.

In the 5 largest Western European car markets by car sales, which collectively accounted for 73.0% of 2015 sales, Germany (+5.6% y-y) and France (+6.8%, y-y) continued to grow even faster than in 2014. The biggest winner was Spain which, after the second consecutive year of double-digit growth, returned very close to the 2008 levels.

The booming sales in the UK combined with shrinking sales in Russia and Brazil have resulted in the UK claiming the 6th spot in the 2015 global car sales’ ranking.

Finally, low oil prices and the effect of the economic sanctions in the Russian economy have adversely affected the domestic car market. Thus, sales of Light Vehicles were down 35.7% in 2015 comparing to 2014.

To read more about our forecasts for the development of the global car market and key markets such as Connected Cars, Automotive Cyber Security and Automotive Powertrains please contact us on:

(+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com or visit auto2xtech.com

© Auto2x 2016. All rights reserved. All fact and figures are for information purposes only and are believed to be accurate at the time of publication.

Automotive Cyber Security Market: How 4 January news provide evidence of what to expect in 2016?

 

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We haven’t yet reached mid-way through the first month of 2016 but 4 key events in M&A, OEM action and standards provide clear evidence of what to look for in the Automotive Cyber Security Market over the year.


 

Timeline of key events in the Automotive Cyber Security Market in Jan 2016

Jan 6 | Harman is acquiring TowerSec for an estimated $70-75 million

Jan 6 | GM launched a cybersecurity bug bounty program which encourages researchers to find vulnerabilities in its cars and disclose them

Jan 5 | NHTSA ends 5-month investigation on Fiat-Chrysler’s automotive radios following the Jeep hack

Jan 15 | The USDOT, the NHTSA and 16 major automakers are expected to announce voluntary agreements on cybersecurity, recalls, defect reporting and proactive safety


 

Harman leads acquisitions in the marketplace, similar to 2015 

2016 started with the announcement that US-based Harman is acquiring car cybersecurity company TowerSec for an estimated $70-75 million.

Harman, which in Mar 2015 acquired another Israeli company engaged in car cyber security, Red bend, as well as Symphony Teleca, aims to integrate TowerSec’s ECUSHIELD and TCUSHIELD into its own ‘’5+1 security architecture’’ to protect connected and autonomous cars. This move demonstrates how integral cyber security is for a comprehensive Connected Car portfolio.

Ann-Arbor, Michigan-based TowerSec delivers on-board cyber security technology to OEMs, suppliers and telematics unit and service providers. The company received an undisclosed investment from IncWell back in Oct 2014 and it has cooperative agreements with British AC Cars and French SEGULA Technologies to embed its technology to their offerings.


‘’The ECUshield can be built-into smart gateways, body control modules, and other CAN-based ECUs and no additional hardware required’’

Dr Anuja Sonalker, VP of Engineering and Operations at TowerSec


2 reasons why M&A and partnerships will continue in 2016

With a government mandate in the horizon, carmakers will face an additional cost from having to integrate cybersecurity solutions into their future Connected Car offerings. Automotive Cyber Security expertise though is rare among their Tier-1 suppliers therefore demand for car cybersecurity experts will increase. This will probably lead to more partnerships or M&A over the next few years as carmakers tend to prefer having all the expertise in-house.

What is more, the viability and successful monetisation of Connected Car business models requires the incorporation of robust automotive cyber expertise and the capability to implement cyber security. This will attract further investment for cyber security experts, either in terms of capital or personnel.

GM joins Tesla in bug bounty programs

So far, Tesla was the first and only company to reward hackers with $100-$10,000 for reported bugs in its cars. Daimler has its own team of hackers testing the vulnerabilities of its vehicles since 2012.

Now GM launches a cybersecurity bug bounty program which encourages researchers to find vulnerabilities in its cars and disclose them. This comes almost after a year since a researcher named Samy Kamkar demonstrated the capabilities of remotely locating, unlocking and starting the engine of vehicles equipped with GM OnStar. In its first 8 days of the bug bounty program’s operation there have already been 2 issues identified by a researcher and already closed.


‘’In the last 6 months, the awareness level has risen much higher in the industry. We see a lot more activity in terms of the penetration testing requests we receive and also in terms of evaluation of our product’’

Ziv Levi, CEO Arilou Technologies Ltd


OEM demand for vulnerability assessments to rise in 2016- product integration follows

GM’s move demonstrates that demand for cyber expertise, both in terms of 3rd party vulnerability assessments and/or personnel, will rise even more in 2016. This will lead to more product evaluation and in some cases product integration for their next generation vehicles before the end of 2016.

Additionally, as the number of Connected Car and Connected-to-the-car devices increases, the vehicle’s attack vector will grow exponentially. OEMs realise that a collaborative approach, together with a proactive strategy can lead to more effective car cybersecurity. Thus, we expect more OEMs to follow on GM’s footsteps of GM and adopt similar practices.

The USDOT, the NHTSA and 16 major carmakers are expected to announce voluntary privacy principles on car cybersecurity

In a nutshell, no official regulation or common standards in Automotive Cyber Security exist yet. But regulators and the auto industry are working on both as demonstrated by the SPY Act in the US and the announcement of J3061 standards from SAE International.

Following a record 63.95 million vehicle recall in the United States in 2014 and multiple fines for safety violations, the government and the car industry are working on a framework that will guide their work on cyber security, as well as safety, defect reporting and recalls. In this direction, multiple industry sources indicate that the USDOT, the NHTSA and 16 major carmakers are expected to announce voluntary agreements on Jan 15, as required by their meeting in Chicago on Dec 16.

This step reaffirms our position that Automotive Cyber Security is now a top priority for carmakers, as well as regulators, because of its implications on physical safety, the carmakers’ whole business and the transition towards more automated vehicles.

Collaborative, proactive Automotive Cyber Security is paramount, but is it realistic?

Although we view any collaborative, industry-wide agreement as a step forward, we approach this development with scepticism because of the degree of effectiveness when relying in voluntary agreements in an industry characterised by the lack of collaboration among OEMs, as in the case of Electric Vehicles.

Carmakers disagree on the effectiveness of a mandate, with some arguing that industry-wide cybersecurity guidelines and practices would be more appropriate to mitigate real-life malicious cyber-attacks than a government regulation in terms of speed of action and relevance.

But in our view, mandatory fitment of robust software and/or hardware solutions together with industry-wide standards and certification of peripheral devices can reduce organised crime’s incentives to attack cars as their probability of success and their gain from infiltrating car security will decrease significantly.

Fiat-Chrysler’s investigation ends but is there more to come?

On Jan 5, the NHTSA ended its 5-month investigation on the 1.4 million recalled Chrysler’s (FCA US LLC) models equipped with Uconnect head units (HU) 8.4A (RA3 radio) and 8.4AN (RA4 radio) manufactured by Harman International. The investigation, issued by the Office of Defects Investigation (ODI) on Jul 24 2015, aimed to ‘’examine HU security vulnerabilities and remedy effectiveness in the recalled population and to determine whether similar units have been supplied for use in other FCA vehicles’’ according to the agency.

The recall query investigation is now closed following remedies in the recall vehicle population and no findings that infotainment units sold to other companies by Harman were susceptible to hacking.


‘’The opportunity cost of management distraction, the potential loss of sales, the cost of a recall, and then potential lawsuits and/or fines from the regulators mean that OEMs must take Cyber Security seriously and act now-doing nothing is not an option’’

Mike Parris, Head of SBD Secure Car Division


Car hacking is inevitable so what can be done to secure Connected Cars?

Malicious cyber-attacks on cars from organised crime can and will move from a possibility to reality. Why?

Simply because we expect the proliferation of Connected Cars over the next ten years and considering that more than once ‘’white hat’’ researchers have demonstrated that modern Connected Cars can be hacked, there are many reasons to worry about. To put it simply, in many cases the existing in-vehicle network security needs to be upgraded to withstand the new cyber-threats arising from the introduction of the Cyber-Physical System.

Additionally, the amount of personal data (e.g. preferences, behaviour, location, even credit card details) collected and distributed over the network by Connected Cars will increase significantly over the next decade as the Internet-of-Cars develops (OTA, V2V, V2I, Autonomous).


‘’A multi-layer approach is always a good practice, starting with a holistic process of security by design which involves addressing potential threats right from the requirement and design phase of products’’

 Asaf Atzmon, VP of Business Development, TowerSec


Finally, as the number of connected-to-the-car devices increases, the vehicle’s attack vector will grow exponentially. And what’s worse, what we call Peripheral car cybersecurity will never be 100% robust. Even the smallest breach in car cybersecurity, whether it’s in-vehicle, peripheral and/or cloud security, is enough to draw the attention of sophisticated criminals who look for opportunities to monetize vulnerabilities.

Read more

To learn more about the Automotive Cyber Security market, including our forecast on the adoption of Cyber Security solutions for Connected Cars in key geographies over the next decade and insight into the evolution of the market landscape read our report:

Automotive Cyber Security Market Forecast: the secure Connected Car

For a detailed Table of Contents or Sample Pages contact us on:

(+44) (0)20 3286 4562 info@auto2xtech.com or visit auto2xtech.com

Only One Week To Go Until China Automotive Cyber Security Summit 2016

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As the “China Automotive Cyber Security Summit 2016” to be held on 21-22 Jan. 2016 in Sheraton Shanghai Hongkou Hotel giants momentum, we are very pleased to announce that the worldwide first class speakers Mr.  Chris Reeves, the Intelligent Mobility & Future Transport Technology from Horiba Mira Ltd, UK, will present the rapidly emerging challenge of cyber security for the automotive sector. With ever increasing levels of automation and connectivity there is a growth in the vulnerability and risk associated with automotive cyber security. Mr. Reeves’s presentation will look at the increasing need to address this problem and implement mitigation strategies using systematic methodologies building on ISO26262 and emerging standards.

In addition, global leading information technology company IBM and Alibaba will also present their cutting edge technology and innovative strategies on how to secure connected cars. Today’s instrumented and intelligent automobiles offer a plethora of driver features — from creature comforts like synching smart phones with vehicle systems to safety features like emergency assistance systems and real-time driver alerts.

Connected vehicles also offer advantages for automakers, such as the ability to proactively detect and respond to warranty and maintenance issues. However, along with these advances come the risks associated with system and vehicle security breaches, as well as concerns over data privacy. To mitigate such threats, the automobile industry must continue to make security a top priority by building protection against computer incursions. In fact, digital security must be infused into every step of the manufacturing process — from design through production, the supply chain and the maintenance ecosystem. Mr. Giuseppe Serio, the Global Solution Leader for Connected Vehicle Security at IBM, will bring his 25+ years professional experiences from various areas and fields, with a clear predominance in the automotive business to CACSS2016. Mr. Serio will present his prospective technological solutions on “driving security –  cyber assurance for next generation vehicles”, that you can not afford to miss out! Register Now


Other TOPICS:

• Developing prospects of Quantum communication technology

• Understand the requirement of Telematics Service Providers

• Dynamics of Internet companies and cyber security companies around connected car conceptions

• The latest standards and regulations of connected car and cyber security and that future developing trends

• Identification of cyber attack that can affect automotive functioning

• Potential risks on security, safety and privacy, and assess severity

• Telematics Security and Evaluation

• Automotive Secure Development Lifecycle (ASDL)

 

PART OF THE SPEAKERS:

Chris Reeves, Horiba Mira Ltd, UK 
Giuseppe Serio, Security IBM   
Shaun Man, Alibaba
Shoutai Wang, Shanghai JiaoTong University
For detailed information about speakers and topics please  Click Here to Download the Brochure.  
“This event is the ultimate guide to develop China Automotive cyber security strategies. It assesses progression of Automotive cyber security to help you predict future and benefit from the deployment; Understand widely variable of levels of Automotive cyber security deployed in China to help you develop bespoke and interoperable solutions and products to suit the markets; Hear who you should align yourself with for future gains!”
Register Now to meet up with LG Electronics, E-trans, Visteon Corporation, Delphi, CommuniTake, CHINAGPS, Haima Automotive, Cherry Jaguar and Landrover, Mazda Automotive, Audi, Bosch, Auto Navinfo, Dongfeng Automotive, Volvo, Cherry Automotive, Changcheng Automotive, Shanghai General Motors, Volkswagen, PSA Peugeot Citroen,Beijing 95190 Yesway, Pan Asia Technical Automotive Center,  Kaspersky, NXP,  China Telecom, China Unicom, Baidu, Infineon,  SBD, France Ministry of Public Security,  The Third Research Institute of Ministry of Public Security, 360 Security,  China Legend Team, China Blackhat Alliance, Alibaba, ..etc.
For registration information about the “CACSS 2016” please contact with Coco Liu at Tel: +86 21 5271 0279, Cell: 13918410123 or email to coco@grccinc.com or visit http://www.acss2016.grccinc.com/index/?en=1
CACSS 2016 is a sister event of “The 5thAnnual Telematics Summit” hold on 10-11 Sep and organized by Genesis Resourcing Consulting China this year. During that Summit the connected car industry colleagues are all concerning the automotive cyber security issues. As the General Manager of China Mobile spoke during the event that without the successful solving the security problem, the China government will intervene the development of connected car industry and then will make the industry development getting even harder. Therefore under the requirement of China automotive OEMs, we plan to produce and organize the “China Automotive Cyber Security Summit”, which will gather 200+ Automotive OEMs, Tier 1 suppliers, Automotive security solution/ technology/products developers,IT companies, Mobile data suppliers, Automotive insurance companies, and automotive cyber security experts to address government regulations developing trends, Automotive cyber security standards, updated vulnerabilities, “Black Hat” behavior motivations, State-of-the-Art technology solutions, critical cyber security challenges and collaboration initiatives, to help to understand tailored smart car cyber security products and solutions, build up a set of effective cyber security management system and improve the capability of protecting smart cars. Tihs event is the only dedicated and focus the event wihtin China connected car industry.
For the past 5 years we have been holding undisputed annual event for the connected care telematics ecosystem. In the largest and most high-profile gathering for automotive and tier 1 telematics executives, we guarantee this event will be the hub from which new contacts, partnerships and strategy are made, with 2016 set to be bigger than ever! We now have limited sponsorship opportunities for you to market your branding, change or enhance your images and build up leadership position in the industry at our event.
For more sponsorship information please contact Ms.Coco Liu at +86 21 5271 0279 or Cell: +86 13918410123 or email to coco@grccinc.com
Best Regards
The organising committee are looking forward to meet you in March Shanghai!

2 reasons why M&A and partnerships in the Automotive Cyber Security Market will continue in 2016

As indicated in our latest report ‘Automotive Cyber Security Market Forecast 2015-2025: the secure connected car’’, the marketplace experienced strong interest in 2015, not only from OEMs and Tier 1s but from other stakeholders.

We expect that in 2016 demand for Automotive Cyber Security experts will be much stronger leading to the formation of new partnerships and/or further M&A.

2016 starts with the acquisition of TowerSec by Harman

On Jan 5, 2016 HARMAN announced it is acquiring TowerSec, an automotive cyber security company. According to source, TowerSec’s technology, primarily the ECUSHIELD and TCUSHIELD, will be integrated into HARMAN’s 5+1 security architecture to protect connected and autonomous cars.

2 reasons why M&A and partnerships will continue in 2016

With a government mandate in the horizon, carmakers will face an additional cost from having to integrate cyber security solutions into their future Connected Car offerings. Automotive Cyber Security expertise though is rare among their Tier-1 suppliers therefore demand for car cybersecurity experts will increase. This will probably lead to more partnerships or M&A over the next few years as carmakers tend to prefer having all the expertise in-house.


‘’We should see automotive cyber security solutions becoming part of mainstream vehicles’ standard equipment as early as 2016’’

Dr Anuja Sonalker, VP of Engineering and Operations at TowerSec


What is more, the viability and successful monetisation of Connected Car business models requires the incorporation of robust automotive cyber expertise and the capability to implement cyber security. This will attract further investment for cyber security experts, either in terms of capital or personnel.

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Read more in our new report:

Automotive Cyber Security Market Forecast 2015-2025: the secure Connected Car

Contact us on: (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com or visit auto2xtech.com