Auto2x Automotive Consultancy

Highly Automated Driving (Level 3) in one out of 6 cars in Europe in 2021.

ADAS & Automated Driving features increasingly become key product differentiators

With Audi teasing its upcoming A8 with emphasis on automated driving capabilities, we present some findings from our latest report on key ADAS feature penetration and their growth potential over the next five years.

Audi’s new flagship will be the first vehicle to feature a Traffic Jam Pilot which will bring Audi to Level 3 in terms of driving features. At the same time it will also offer L2 Remote Parking, bringing Audi to parity with Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Tesla in terms of L2 parking capabilities -all of them offer either Self-Park, Remote Park or both.

While today, Level 3 deployment is constrained geographically by regulatory approval, key car markets are giving the green light. Our report provides in-depth analysis of how the regulatory framework affects OEM strategy as well as Level 3 deployment.

We expect that in 2021, 17% of new car sales in Europe will offer Highly-Automated Driving (Level 3) features as optional or standard, the majority of which will come from premium car manufacturers.

By then, feature functionality will have expanded from the low-speed, single-lane Traffic Jam Pilot to more advanced Highway Pilots.

Read our report to understand carmakers’ strategies to reach higher levels of vehicle autonomy and the opportunities they create for ADAS sensors, AD platforms as well as collaborations.

Level 2 penetration in Europe reached 6.5% in 2016 with German OEMs holding the lion’s share

While the introduction of Level 3 is big news, especially since the debate over its risk-reward as an intermediate level between Supervised (Level 0-2) vs Unsupervised driving (L4-5) continues, it’s Level 2 that makes its way into new car sales, especially in Europe.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (June 22, 2017) ñ The widely anticipated new Nissan LEAF will feature state-of-the-art ProPILOT Assist technology, Nissanís driver-assistance technology that reduces the hassle of stop-and-go highway driving. ProPILOT Assist supports drivers by helping control acceleration, braking and steering during single-lane driving on the highway. In the coming years, Nissanís ProPILOT technology will offer increasing levels of autonomy, with the system eventually able to navigate city intersections. Set to help make driving more secure and more enjoyable, ProPILOT Assist is part of Nissan Intelligent Mobility, the companyís blueprint for transforming how cars are driven, powered and integrated into society.

In 2016, 22 models from 8 car manufacturers offered (SAE) L2 driving capabilities globally. BMW led the market both in terms of market share in Level 2 offerings but also in terms of share in total L2 sales in Europe.

As a result, sales of cars fitted with Level 2 Traffic Jam Assist as standard or optional equipment reached almost 1 million in Europe in 2016, accounting for 6.5% of the 15.13 million car sales in Western Europe.

L2 in EuropeNissan is among the carmakers introducing Level 2 functionality in Europe this year with the ProPilot Assist in the new Leaf, Qashqai and the X-Trail. Nissan’s technology, which will later expand to unlock multi-lane cruising support, was launched last year in Japan in the new Serena.

We expect that in 2019, at least 50 models will be equipped with Traffic Jam Assist or Cruise Assist in Europe, with premium OEMs’ share accounting for 74%.

Here’s a table with the marketing names used by carmakers for their Level 2 Driving features.L2 naming

To learn more insights on ADAS and Automated Driving, including strategy and roadmap of leading carmakers read our latest report Roadmap to Self-Driving Cars.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562,

Auto2x Automotive Consultancy

Who is liable in Level 3 automated mode, the driver or the car? New Data.

Extensive data recording of “critical events” while in Level 3 to assist in accident reconstruction and liability

  • Today, in Level 0-2, the driver’s inattention at any given point in time triggers his liability
  • Level 3- Conditional “eyes-off”, hitting the road by the end of 2017, has implications for the determination of liability because the driver will be conditionally allowed to be “distracted” but he is still required to be “available”
  • Impact on traditional vehicle insurance as well as carmakers, given the significant engineering challenges to implement extensive data recording amid an immature regulatory framework
  • Carmakers to accept liability while in L3 automated mode but drivers must not sleep or move away from the seat- emergency vehicle stop if the driver fails to respond to takeover request


Why we need Event Data Recorders (EDR) for automated driving

Existing EDR capability is focused on the seconds around a crash (e.g. 30 seconds before and 15s after the crash) while data capturing needs for Automated Driving may cover a much broader period and require longer storage.

In Level 3, when the system is active and when it becomes legal for drivers to be partially distracted by ADAS, drivers will be able to relax, read, text, call, watch TV, but not sleep or move from their seat because they must always be available to takeover vehicle control when the system signals a transition demand or in case of a system malfunction. But the driver will still be responsible for the overall vehicle control even when the system is active and will have the ability to override it.

In case a “critical event” occurs while the ADS is active, which might expand from an accident to include traffic law violations, data recording capabilities will be required to contribute to accident reconstruction and potentially assist in supporting claims against the manufacturer.

Data recording would be useful to understand if the system failed or transferred control to the driver who failed to ‘’react’’

Therefore, we assess that AD event data recording requirements will be both an engineering prerequisite and a regulatory/legal requirement for deployment and legality to accommodate ‘’critical events’’ and ‘’automated driving mode’’. In the words, to make sure that effective driver monitoring is in place and, when needed, control can be handed back to a driver who is fit and able to drive the vehicle.

What is more, it will be necessary to be able to access the vehicle data in order to determine the circumstances surrounding a given incident, any possible defect or fault in the system, or whether the vehicle was operating under a partially/fully automated mode.

Immature regulatory guidance on data recording and storage for Automated Driving challenges deployment

There is a consensus that EDR-AD will be a regulatory prerequisite for the deployment of L3 as demonstrated by the requirements for EDRs-AD in the amendment of the German Road Traffic Act and the amendment of Reg.79 which already mentions DSSA capabilities -although at a draft status. The problem is that regulatory action is at an early stage therefore guidance on engineering requirements is still immature. We expect though that this will not restrict car manufacturers and suppliers to put EDR-AD in place for L3.

Germany has already passed a law that will allow L3 as long as data recording and sharing are in place and systems are compliant with relevant international regulation. Furthermore, Germany and the UK are among the key car markets which have already started procedures to adjust their road traffic laws/acts to accommodate L3.

On the contrary, the U.S follows a standalone policy based on the star-by-state control of AD regulation and the voluntary federal guidelines which might cause lack of standardisation.

Amid the immature regulatory framework, carmakers face the challenge to design and implement data recording capabilities that will cover the minimum (expected) regulatory requirements but also cover them above and beyond in terms of product liability.

To read more about Autonomous Driving regulation check our report Roadmap to Self-Driving Cars.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562,

Auto2x Automotive Consultancy

New Autonomous Driving Roadmap report: Drivers to legally take their “eyes-off” the road from 2017

Learn about leading OEMs’ ADAS & Autonomous Driving roadmap and strategies

Auto2x’s latest report examines the current status of autonomous vehicle deployment including the ADAS&AD portfolio of 24 leading OEMs, the engineering and regulatory challenges for high levels of autonomy and the business models to overcome and monetise them. Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.

CADILLAC supercruiseRead about our key findings:

2017 will see the introduction of technology that allows “eyes-off” the road

2017 is the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS providing assistance for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (L3) which can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’. However, in L3 the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the
takeover request.

Level 3 deployment is still subject to regional regulatory approval. What’s more, the regulatory and legal framework differs across leading car markets. This could result in lack of harmonisation and restrict standardisation, adversely impacting the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.

Germany legalises Level 3 automated driving giving a head-start to German carmakers

Germany wants to be in the forefront of Autonomous driving (testing and deployment) ahead of the U.S. therefore it has amended the German Road Traffic Act (Straßenverkehrsgesetz, StVG) to allow domestic car manufacturers, which already are closer to L3, to deploy their systems in the market. Deployment of L3 in Germany would be possible under the new framework, but also provided that systems are compliant with UNECE regulations and data recording for accident reconstruction and claims.

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistences between what’s legal?

The removal of the front passenger seat allows for full forward vision creating a uniquely spacious environment.

Another OEM skips L3 as the debate for Conditionally-Unsupervised driving continues

Volvo is now added to the list of carmakers pulling away from deployment of Level 3 with the CEO characterizing the handover of vehicle control as unsafe. The company claims they will only offer (completely) unsupervised autonomous mode when it’s safe, for which it will assume full responsibility. This comes a few months away from the first-ever L3-equipped car from Audi.

Different OEM strategies over Supervised vs Conditionally and Completely-Unsupervised driving

This development is another demonstration of the different approaches leading car manufacturers are following to commercialize automated driving amid the engineering, regulatory and consumer adoption hurdles.

The industry is currently facing a debate over supervised (L0-2) vs (optionally) unsupervised driving (L4-5) and whether an intermediate” level (L3), where the system can monitor but drivers have to takeover in case of an emergency is safe and adds value to owners. Thus, the commercialisation of L3 is uncertain given the high cost/benefit ratio, i.e. the marginal impact on safety and driver convenience from L2 comparing to the massive engineering challenge.

Partially-automated (L2) model offerings expand to the compact segment

At the same time, more carmakers are introducing L2 parking and driving capabilities and expand L2 feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment. This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements and competition drive fitment of ADAS.

l2 2015-17

Aggressive marketing contributes to customer confusion and leads to misuse and/or abuse of L2

L2’s purpose is to assist the driver but not substitute him by offering longitudinal and lateral assistance. L2 Traffic Jam Assists and Cruise Assists may allow a few seconds of hands-free driving
but do not have the system capability and redundancy to monitor the road-hence your hands-on-the steering- wheel are mandatory (from both technological and legal perspective) despite what you here from some aggressive marketing campaigns.

Engineering challenges to drive demand for sensors, SW and collaborations

A Mobileye executive has recently described the challenge and complexity of launching SAE L4, i.e. chauffer driving and valet parking features among others, with putting a man on the moon. Higher level of vehicle automation will require augmented sensor set, new architecture and innovative validation methods among others.

This will drive demand for sensors, supercomputers, high precision
maps etc. It will also drive further collaboration between OEMs and Tier 1s-2s for the development of AD platforms-be it L4 for car sharing or not.

New business models arise in the new era of smart mobility

Carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, such as tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo) and MNOs compete in the autonomous vehicle race to establish a winning portfolio or just remain competitive.

L4/fully-automated vehicles will revolutionise transportation and mobility leading to what we call Intelligent Mobility. This includes the rising car-sharing and ride-sharing businesses as well as new
vehicle ownership models in the Passenger Car market. We analyse opportunities across the supply chain.

For a detailed Table of Contents or Sample Pages contact us on: (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, or visit