Safety regulation, competition and consumer demand create opportunities for ADAS Suppliers
ADAS penetration is expected to rise significantly over the next 10 years, driven primarily by changes in NCAP’s safety rating scoring and lower cost of sensors or implementation, paving the way to Conditionally- Automated cars from 2018 (SAE Level 3) and eventually Fully-Automated Driving in more than a decade.
We assess that major automotive suppliers are well- positioned to benefit the most from the transition to higher levels of autonomy.
ADAS penetration is rising in key car markets enhancing safety and driver convenience
In the UK, nearly 70% of new cars were available with at least one driver assistance system in 2016, either as standard or as an optional extra, according to the SMMT.
Park Assist penetration in Germany, Europe’s largest car market, is even higher (62%) than in the UK.
Over the next decade, we expect the proliferation of driver assistance across all car segments together with rising penetration of Partial & Conditional Automation
Today, ADAS systems, i.e. SAE Level 0-2 features for driving and parking, are already available on the road. These features assist but not substitute the driver for safety and convenience by automating a specific driving or parking scenario. Moreover, Level 2 features provide convenience by enabling limited hands-off-the-wheel and feet-off but require that the driver is ”always in the loop”, i.e. constantly monitoring the road.
2018 is the year of transition from SAE Level 2-Partial Automation to L3-Conditional automation. By 2020, advanced car markets, such as Europe, North America and Japan, will have Level 3-capable cars on the road.
ADAS regulation and NCAP requirements in the Europe, the US and Asia drive the increase in ADAS sensor content in modern cars
In the U.S, rear-visibility requirements coming into force in 2018 require the installation of rear-view cameras in all vehicles to reduce back-over fatalities (FMVSS 111). What is more, rear pedestrian autobrake requirements by the NHTSA for the U.S 2018 NCAP push OEMs to develop new ADAS strategies.
Japan is expected to introduce mandates for the AEB and LDW ADAS applications to their NCAP star ratings until 2018.
ADAS offer the opportunity for product differentiation for OEMs
OEMs realise that ADAS and especially higher levels of autonomy (L4/5) can be product differentiators so they invest in them and market them accordingly to attract new client base and/or enhance brand loyalty. A good example is Volvo who is following a two-sided Autonomous Driving strategy.
As the auto industry shifts from HW to SW, suppliers tailor their strategies to lead the ADAS market
With software substituting hardware as the cornerstone of the automotive industry, the revenue and profitability structure will change. This means that the role of car manufacturers as well as automotive suppliers will alter. We assess that suppliers’ role will expand from suppliers of systems and components to that of providers of complete mobility solutions.
ADAS Component Revenue from Top-7 Tier-1 Suppliers will almost double by 2020 as ADAS Content per Vehicle rises
ADAS content per vehicle, i.e. the fitment of radars, cameras, ultrasonics and other components necessary for driver assistance and higher levels of autonomy, will rise significantly in major car markets driven by changes in safety regulation and rating, competition to offer higher levels of autonomy and lower cost of sensors.
Auto2x expects that in 2020, 42 models capable of Level 3 autonomy (TJP, HP) and 94 models with Level 2 (TJA, CA) –mostly as optional equipment – will be offered in Europe, despite the regulatory hurdles of the latter.
What is more, ADAS Content per Vehicle in 2020 will range from €489 for Level 2, with 17 sensors per car, to €960-2,100 for Level 3 depending on the usage of lidar or not as sensor set redundancy.
Suppliers are well-positioned to monetise the strong demand for ADAS components.
Our new report, ADAS Suppliers’ Rankings examines the portfolio, strategy and roadmap of leading ADAS Suppliers to deliver:
- Rankings and Market shares by ADAS Component Revenue in 2015-17 & 2020 (€);
- Ranking by ADAS-to-Automotive Revenue;
- 2017 market shares in 77GH / 24GHz radar, camera, Lidar, and ultrasonic in Europe, USA and China, by sales of components to OEMs;
- Competitive assessment and outlook for 2020;
- Market shares of ADAS Suppliers in sales of L3 radar and Lidar in Europe in 2020.
For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or using Contact us form