Auto2x Automotive Consultancy

New Autonomous Driving Regulation boosts the future of driverless mobility

Germany aims to become the first country in the world to bring driverless vehicles into everyday life

Germany’s new legislation aims to put the country in the pole position of deployment of driverless vehicles on public roads on certain, fixed routes.

The new law covers the operation of vehicles with fully autonomous systems that fall under the “SAE Level 4” classification. SAE Lv.4-Full automation describes the scenario where drivers can completely hand over vehicle control and monitoring to the Automated Driving System for specific driving scenarios under the Operational Design Domain of the systems, e.g. Lv.4-Parking Valet parking or L4.-Driving Cruising Chauffeur.

By 2022, the operation of driverless vehicles will be possible for a maximum number of application scenarios. The legislation framework cites scenarios including small buses and logistics vehicles that can shuttle passengers and goods along predetermined routes.

“The new regulation act is the next key building brick to apply automated driving in practice, and to open up opportunities to use the technology in various mobility sectors”

BMVI

The legislation aims to allow the deployment of autonomous driving under the following application scenarios:

New Autonomous Driving Regulation boosts the future of driverless mobility 1

  • Shuttle transport
  • Automated passenger transport systems over short distances
  • Driverless links between logistics centers (hub2hub transport)
  • Demand-driven transport services in rural areas at off-peak times
  • Dual-mode systems such as “automated valet parking” (where the driver can leave the vehicle at the front door and instruct the vehicle by smartphone to park in the garage).

While AV testing is currently permitted in Germany, the legislation would allow operations of autonomous vehicles without a physically present driver behind the wheel, in predefined operating areas.

Companies that are already conducting self-driving tests in Germany might have an upper hand in AD commercialization

New Autonomous Driving Regulation boosts the future of driverless mobility 2

Mobileye received a permit in Jul.’20, to perform AV testing in Germany urban and rural areas as well as the Autobahn, at a regular driving speed of up to 130 kilometers per hour. Mobileye’s converted test-vehicles will test the functionality and scalability of Mobileye’s self-driving system (SDS) exclusively developed for MaaS and consumer autonomous vehicles.

VW, in collaboration with Argo AI, plans to implement Level 4-capable autonomous driving technology for self-driving vans

Together with VW, self-driving developer, Argo AI has been recently testing its driverless vehicles at the LabCampus innovation center at Munich Airport; the German automaker’s electric ID Buzz vans will use hardware and software developed by Argo AI. The aim is to launch a commercial delivery and micro-transit service in Germany by 2025. Argo AI has recently unveiled its new lidar technology that integrates photorealistic imaging and light waves to detect objects from a distance up to 400 meters.

“Our goal is to enable commercial use in driving and delivery services with the autonomous version of the ID Buzz from 2025”, explained Christian Senger, division manager autonomous driving at VW Commercial Vehicles

VW plans to put the vans in service as a ride-sharing fleet under its mobility subsidiary MOIA.

New Autonomous Driving Regulation boosts the future of driverless mobility 3

By 2025, the group subsidiary MOIA is expected to be the first user of the self-driving ID. BUZZ AD. “Hamburg will be the first city to offer an autonomous ride pooling service with an ID. BUZZ ”, said MOIA’s managing director Robert Henrich. The subsidiary of the Volkswagen Group MOIA provides mobility services at its Berlin and Hamburg locations and works in partnership with cities and local public transport providers.

In US, the technology competition is in full swing between Silicon Valley and the Auto giants

In recent years, several U.S. states have implemented regulations regarding AV testing and deployment. In California, the world’s largest test area for autonomous vehicles. driving is not only taking place on test tracks, but also on highways. Recently, Chinese robotaxi startup Pony.ai became the eighth company to be granted a permit to test driverless vehicles in California cities; whereas Nuro has recently granted permission from the California Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to charge a fee and receive compensation for its driverless delivery service.

Google’ subsidiary Waymo and General Motors’ Cruise are racing for the pole position in AVs testing, as well as in driverless mobility services; in order to integrate autonomous driving into everyday life.

New Autonomous Driving Regulation boosts the future of driverless mobility 4

In the US state of Arizona, more precisely a suburb of Phoenix, Waymo has been driving robot cars as taxis for a while – albeit with a safety driver behind the wheel. Customers can order their trip via the app provided by Waymo ride-hailing service, the Waymo One

Waymo is seen by many experts as a leader in developing autonomous driving technologies. Several carmakers, including Volvo and the automotive company Stellantis, rely on Waymo autonomous driving solution, the Waymo Driver, to serve as a platform for their future self-driving Level 4 vehicles.

Meanwhile, Cruise, the San Francisco-based robotaxi developer backed by General Motors, has been testing its fleet of specially outfitted Chevy Bolt EVs on the California roads since 2016. Cruise has recently announced plans to expand its self-driving operations to Dubai, by 2023; according to the agreement signed between Cruise and the Dubai Roads and Transport Authority, Cruise will be the exclusive provider for self-driving taxis and ride-hailing services in the emirate, through 2029.

Setting its sights abroad for the first time after years of testing its self-driving vehicle technology in the US, Cruise is also planning to deploy the “purpose-built” vehicle for ride-hailing services, Origin; an all-electric, shuttle-like, self-driving vehicle that doesn’t feature any manual controls that would allow a human to take control in an emergency, such as pedals or a steering wheel.

Waymo and Cruise have dominated AV testing in California in the previous years, according to data provided by the California Department of Motor Vehicles.

New Autonomous Driving Regulation boosts the future of driverless mobility 5

Source: California Department of Motor Vehicles

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To learn about Carmakers’ strategies, market positioning and leadership in MaaS read our report “Carmakers’ Competitiveness in Smart Mobility“.

To learn more about competition and market developments in the next decade read our reports

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Car sharing in Norway

Car-sharing is now giving Norway’s smart mobility a new kick-start

Car-sharing is now giving Norway's smart mobility a new kick-start 6

The Norwegian Institute of Transport Economics (TØI) estimates that by 2050 transport demand is expected to grow significantly for both passenger and freight transport. Among the modes of transportation, the share of car transport is showing the highest growth rate, a trend linked to increased car ownership.

Car-sharing is now giving Norway's smart mobility a new kick-start 7

Source: TØI

At the same time, Norway aims to at least halve greenhouse gas emissions by 2030

Norway has the ambition to be virtually emission-free by 2050, which means that the emissions should be reduced by 90 to 95%, compared to the current levels. According to the Norwegian statistics bureau (SSB), the transport sector counts for almost 1/3 of Norwegian greenhouse gas emissions; whereas over half of the transport sector’ emissions comes from road traffic.

Trends toward electrification, autonomous driving technologies and sharing mobility reshape the future of mobility

Electrification is expected to be the most important measure in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions from passenger cars, vans and heavy transport. By 2030, it is expected that battery electric vehicles in Norway will fully penetrate almost all road transport modes.

At the end of 2020, in Norway’s car market, passenger cars accounted for 82% of all registered cars. The number of electric cars grew by 30% from 261,000 to 340,000 y-y and accounted for 12% of the passenger car fleet.

Hybrid cars showed an increase of 20% compared to last year and accounted for 10% of the passenger car population. At the beginning of 2021, the population of petrol-powered passenger cars was reduced to 950,000; a decrease of 8%. Petrol-powered cars accounted for 34% of the passenger car stock as of 31 December 2020. The number of passenger cars with diesel engines decreased by 3% to 1.2 million units; diesel-powered cars accounted for 44% of the entire passenger car fleet.

To reduce the number of car journeys, MaaS has a key role to play

The Norwegian National Transport Plan suggests several pathways for obtaining a low-carbon, smart-mobility system. Measures include:

  1. support of technological innovation of vehicles, fuels and infrastructure (EVs, hydrogen, charging stations etc.),
  2. encourage modal shifts from private car ownership to shared- private mobility, cycling and public transport; and a shift from prevailing car-based road transport to green logistics (EVs, cargo cycles etc.) for urban freight transport,
  3. implement efficient forms of traffic management and driving behavior (Intelligent Traffic Systems) and,
  4. integrate spatial planning with transport planning for obtaining sustainable urban mobility.

 “One shared-car, can replace ten privately owned cars”

As an alternative to private car ownership, car sharing has been recently identified by Norwegian authorities as an important tool for transport policy goals. Car-sharing is often chosen by members for financial and practical reasons, yet there are positive environmental outcomes as well.

TOI has estimated that one shared car can replace approximately ten privately owned cars; thus car-sharing is able to confront issues related to congestion, parking, noise and CO2 emissions. Additionally, if the car-sharing fleet consists of electric vehicles, it is likely that positive results,  such as those described above, will be even more substantial, given that power is generated from non-CO2 emitting sources; a scheme that is plausible in Norway, given the available hydropower.

In this direction, several Norwegian municipalities have recently issued favorable regulation & guidelines for car-sharing deployment, in order to reduce car usage, stimulate lower greenhouse gas emissions, and reduce the area of ​​public roads used for parking.

Car-sharing is now giving Norway's smart mobility a new kick-start 8

In Oct.2020, Trondheim municipality issued regulatory guidelines that permit private car-sharing enterprises to participate in a joint car-sharing council that advises the authorities on where the enterprises need to establish permanent parking spaces; which car-sharing enterprises should be allowed to dispose of the specific parking spaces, and other matters concerning the allocation scheme of a parking permit for car-sharing business. According to the relevant announcement, the purpose of the issued regulations is to facilitate the increased use of car sharing in Trondheim municipality.

From 2015 and onwards, development in car-sharing business, is characterized by the rapid emergence of P2P services and the expansion of the geographical scope for car sharing

In 2015, two non-commercial companies Nabobil and GoMore were established in Norway. These two companies were the first to offer formal P2P car-sharing platforms on a large scale, where members rent out their private cars to other members. In such a business model, Nabobil and GoMore, are seen as facilitators for car-sharing, while it is the owner of the car who is technically the provider. P2P car sharing can be quickly scaled up both geographically and in terms of the size of the car fleet. After five years in operation, Nabobil has more than 180,000 registered users and 7,000 vehicles distributed in over 200 municipalities in Norway.

Car-sharing is now giving Norway's smart mobility a new kick-start 9

Source: Car-Sharing Companies / Auto2x

An important feature of car-sharing’ business in Norway is the development of hybrid business models that include combinations of P2P, B2B, B2C and cooperative forms.

Hyre, which is owned by Møller Mobility Group, is an example of one car-sharing player operating with a hybrid model that combines elements of P2P and B2P. Hayk is also a newly started company (established in 2018) that also follow a hybrid car-sharing model, offering services to cooperatives and co-owners, as well as P2P services.

“Green car-sharing” rises

In 2007, Move About was established as the second commercial “pure-electric” car-sharing operator in Norway. Move About offers pools with electric cars, electric bikes and electric scooters; and currently operates in Oslo, Fredrikstad, Halden, Bø and Trondheim.

In 2018, Norwegian State Railways (NSB) in partnership with the Danish company GreenMobility, launched a free-flowing car-sharing platform in Oslo. The platform includes 250 electric cars which can be parked for free (with some exceptions) in all public car parks within the Ring 3 in Oslo. Users can either pay for the use per minute or day, or they can buy a monthly subscription that provides 20 hours of access/driving during the period.

In Norway, it is carmakers and car-importers who have invested the most in car sharing business

The car importer Møller Mobility Group is behind the Hyre car-sharing company; whereas Bertel O. Steen, Norway’s leading retail provider has backed Otto Mobility; and these are still just a few of the car-sharing services available in Norway, with players such as Nabobil being acquired by international P2P provider Getaround in 2019.

Recently, Toyota and Bilkollektivet have joined forces in a new company called Godtur Innovation, which offers a platform where Toyota’s corporate customers and Bilkollektivet’s retail customers will be able to interact with one another, share their vehicles and rent their parking spaces. Furthermore, Toyota has also started pilots on car subscriptions on a monthly basis in Norway; while a number of other car brands, such as Volvo Cars and Seat, have already launched similar offers in the Norwegian market.

TØI estimates that by 2025, over 300,000 Norwegians are expected to use online car-sharing services.

Statistics from TØI show that a total of 250,000 Norwegians are now registered in a car collective and that more than 100,000 have used the service on a regular basis. According to TØI estimations by 2025, over 350,000 Norwegians are expected to use car-sharing services.

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To learn about Carmakers’ strategies, market positioning and leadership in MaaS read our report “Carmakers’ Competitiveness in Smart Mobility“

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

Denso Automated Parking

Autonomous Parking is now the fastest growing SAE Lv.3 feature from Chinese Carmakers

Autonomous Parking features, in which vehicles automatically get to the parking space in garage, have already been commercialized in China, the world’s leading car market.

Automated parking is a significant innovation that generates added value through improved efficiency in parking. With automated parking, the parking process in shared parking areas can be carried out more quickly and safely and the parking capacities are better utilized.

Autonomous Parking is now the fastest growing SAE Lv.3 feature from Chinese Carmakers 10

Autonomous parking systems have currently became the fastest growing Lv.3 feature for Chinese Carmakers

Advances in vehicle connectivity, IoT applications and smart infrastructure can enhance the deployment of autonomous parking technologies. At the same time, China’s commitment to Intelligent & Connected Vehicles could fast track regulatory changes to give a head start to domestic brands. Finally, the advanced digital infrastructure and the burgeoning mobility market hold the potential to boost adoption of AMoD.

China is planning to realize the scale production of vehicles capable of conditional autonomous driving and commercialization of highly autonomous vehicles in certain circumstances by 2025, according to a blueprint issued in Dec.2020 by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and nine other ministries.

The penetration rate of Lv.2 and Lv.3 intelligent networked vehicles continues to increase; it is expected to reach 50% in 2025 and exceed 70% in 2030

Chinese Society of Automotive Engineers (2020)

According to the IoV Industrial Development Action Plan issued by the public authorities in late 2018; conditional autonomous Lv.2 driving assistant systems and in-vehicle connected information service terminals should be installed by 2020 into more than 30% and 60% of new cars respectively.

At present, Chinese Carmakers adopt a mix model of AD development, that combines conditional autonomous driving technologies (i.e. Lv.2) and robust in-vehicle connected infotainment products; with higher levels of autonomy (i.e. Lv.4) concentrating only in smart-mobility segments; i.e. robotaxis, ride-hailing services, public transportation sector etc.

Achieving true fully automated driving is a long-term business procedure; deploying autonomous parking technology is a good starting point

Smart parking infrastructure in its entirety (i.e. sensors, communications networks etc.) can be leveraged to help enable cars of the future to park themselves. AV fleets are also expected to fundamentally change the way cars are used, affecting how often and where future vehicles will be parked.

Autonomous parking technology, as a low-speed and complex scene of the “last 100 meters” of autonomous driving, can help accumulate abundant training data and facilitate the technological evolution of next-generation autonomous & intelligent networked vehicles.

At present, several Chinese Carmakers, including BYD, Changan, Great Wall, Geely, and SAIC have already introduced Self-Parking capabilities that rival the likes of Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla.

Chinese carmakers leverage their strategic partnerships with foreign OEMs and domestic tech pioneers to mass-deploy their autonomous parking capabilities. ORA’s full-scene Automatic Parking system, BYD’s Vision Fusion Automatic Parking, Geely’s FOTA and 5G Autonomous Valet Parking, Changan’s APA 5.0 Remote Control Valet Parking; all provide point-to-point memory parking by integrating visual SLAM and ultrasonic radars to memorize and learn commonly used parking spaces and driving routes.

Autonomous Parking is now the fastest growing SAE Lv.3 feature from Chinese Carmakers 11

Recently, FAW Hongqi and Xpeng have launched their first full-featured software valet parking systems, that support commercial parking lots and private parking spaces. In both systems, the vehicle can drive unmanned in the parking lot, automatically find a parking space and drive out from the parking space to the location designated by the user. The system can also memorize the user’s parking route.

Case Study: Changan CS75 Plus is equipped with APA 5.0 remote control valet parking system.

APA 5.0 parking system integrates 4 HD wide-angle cameras (360° view) and front/rear parking radars to enable the vehicle to realize horizontal parking, vertical and diagonal parking, find a parking space within 20m, enter the parking space and complete the parking process automatically. The car owner can also use the mobile phone APP to carry out one-key remote parking. The system integrates ultrasonic radar and high-definition camera data to identify parking spaces, vehicles, pedestrians, obstacles, etc., and has an emergency braking function.

Examples of SAE Lv.2 Parking Systems provided by various Chinese Carmakers (Source: Auto2x Analysis)
CarmakerParking SystemModels
BAIC ArcfoxAPA one-key full-scene parkinga-T, a-S
CheryFAPA + Remote Control ParkingTiggo 8, EQ Big Ant
GACBosch APA full-scene parkingTrumpchi Series: GS8, GA6
AionFAPA Smart + Remote ParkingAion Series: S, V , LX
SAIC MaxusAPA + Remote Control ParkingG20, G50, G50 Plus, D60
SAIC RoeweAPA automatic parkingRX5 eMax, iMax 8
As of 2020, the vast majority of the vehicles sold by the Chinese brands realize Lv.0-1 parking features; in early 2021 approximately 50 models provided by Chinese Carmakers can realize Lv.2 parking.

Autonomous Parking is now the fastest growing SAE Lv.3 feature from Chinese Carmakers 12

Source: Auto2x

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To learn more about competition and market developments in the next decade read our reports