Auto2x: Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car Report Portfolio
Carmakers are investing in Autonomous cars to create a new USP
This report focuses on leading car manufacturers’ ADAS & Automated Driving portfolio and their strategies to transition towards full automation and self-driving cars. Moreover, it examines the regulatory landscape and other technical challenges and their implications on deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy.
Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.
Learn about the status of vehicle automation in 2019-20:
What is the availability of key ADAS features, such as AEB, TSR, ACC, LKA, TJA, in leading carmakers in Europe? We provide in depth segmentation by ADAS/SAE Level;
What is the penetration rate of SAE Level 0, 1 and 2 in European car sales in 2016-20?
Which OEMs lead L2 deployment and why?
What changes in 2017 in terms of deployment of L2 and L3?
Understand the regulatory and engineering challenges carmakers face for the deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy:
What is the status of Autonomous Driving regulation in major car markets?
What are the differences in the legal and regulatory framework in Europe and the United States and how this will affect L3-5 deployment?
Which geography presents the most favorable environment for deployment of Level 3?
What breakthroughs are required in the area of SW/HW and validation for L3-4?
Read how carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving
How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities and when?
OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations
Discover when leading carmakers will launch capabilities of L2, L3, L4 and L5 segmented into Driving (L2-TJA vs L3-TJP) and Parking features (e.g. L2-Self Park, L4-Valet Parking)
What are the trends by ADAS levels in Top Premium OEMs’ model range during 2016-25?
Learn about the penetration of different levels of autonomy in European car sales by 2025
Benchmark competition: strengths and weaknesses of ADAS&AD product portfolio, suppliers and competitiveness
Leading ADAS Suppliers to monetize ADAS growth
Leading manufacturers of the cameras, radars, Lidar, and ultrasonic sensors used for ADAS will benefit from the uptake of ADAS penetration and the eventual transition towards semi-autonomous and self-driving cars.
Read about the product portfolio (ADAS features and sensors) and key figures of Bosch, Continental, Autoliv, Aptiv, and Denso, including sales of sensors (where available). Learn how their shares will develop during 2017-2020.
Table of Contents
Ranking by ADAS-to-Automotive revenue in 2017 vs 2020;
Market shares of Suppliers in 2017-19 in Europe, USA and China by sales of:
Camera sensors (Stereo, Mono, Infrared)
Radar sensors (77GHz and 24GHz)
LIDAR (short-range, scanning)
Ultrasonic sensors
Market shares of ADAS Suppliers in sales of L3 radar and Lidar in Europe in 2020;
Learn why ADAS suppliers will be the ones to benefit most rising ADAS penetration during 2015-20
Read how regulation and the increasing role of software will unveil business opportunities for leading suppliers
Gain an understanding of the current state of market competition in the ADAS market:
Read about the status of ADAS revenues of leading suppliers in 2015-20 (EUR million)
Trends in ADAS radar, camera-based ADAS and sensor fusion until 2020
Get insights on recent M&A, product deployment and regulation/legislation
Read about the product portfolio (ADAS features and sensors) and key figures of ADAS top Tier-1s including sales of sensors (where available). Learn how their shares will develop during 2017-2020
The Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car portfolio is priced at £10,000, providing savings of 28% for the 4 reports:
2021 will see regulation finally allowing the introduction of LEVEL 3 Automated Driving technology that allows drivers to take their “eyes-off” the road under specific conditions
In June 2020, regulators announced that the UNECE regulation on Automated Lane Keep Systems will allow Level 3 deployment in countries such as Japan, France, and Germany among other European countries, probably China from January 2021 – but not the USA.
The new regulation comes almost 3 years after ongoing technical discussions about “automated steering” requirements. The delay has greatly affected the Automated Driving strategies of carmakers.
However, technologically, Audi was the first carmaker to announce technological capabilities for the transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (Level 3). Audi was the first carmaker to introduce a L3-Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval. This means that the introduction of ”eyes-off-the road” technology in Europe was delayed to mid-to-end 2021.
No of models offering Level 3 automated driving features in Europe by 2025
In Level 3, the driver can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’.
But the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the takeover request.
Nissan’s Pro-Pilot 2 available only in the Skyline in Japan, fits the definition of a Level 3 system. Also, Tesla’s Navigate on Autopilot in the USA could fit the definition. Automated Driving Regulation in the USA is different compared to Europe, Japan, and China with USA allowing more flexibility to carmakers to deploy L3 systems.
The differences in regulatory and legal framework across leading car markets could result in a lack of harmonization and requirements for design variants which could adversely impact manufacturers of Automated Driving Systems as well as the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.
Partially automated (L2) model offerings expand to the compact segment
At the same time, more carmakers are introducing L2 parking and driving capabilities and expand L2 feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment.
This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements and competition drive fitment of ADAS.
New entrants compete for a share in the new mobility era
Carmakers, Tier-1s, and new-entrants, such as tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo) and MNOs compete in the autonomous vehicle race to establish a winning portfolio or just remain competitive.
However, many of the engineering, regulatory/legal and ethical challenges for deployment of higher levels of autonomy remain unresolved.
Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but harmonization will be a challenge
The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what’s legal?
What is the status of AD regulation in Europe and the U.S? What is the impact on L3 deployment?
Which geography presents the most favourable environment for deployment of Level 3?
Clear guidance on the safe and secure development, testing and deployment of AV technologies is necessary as well as harmonisation of homologation standards or vehicle certification in order to comply with safety standards.
A higher level of automation requires augmented sensor set, architecture and enhanced robustness
A Mobileye executive has recently described the challenge and complexity of launching SAE L4, i.e. Highly-autonomous cars which are equipped with chauffeur driving and valet parking features among others, with putting a man on the moon.
Further development in machine learning is required in the area of maps and image processing, to improve object recognition and subsequently decision-making in split-second timeframe. Tesla and Ford have announced developments in this area together with some leading Tier-1s.
How are carmakers forging their HW and SW portfolio to enable L3 and higher levels of automation?
How will this affect the mobility ecosystem and the supply chain?
New business models arise in the new era of smart mobility
The approval of L3 will allow greater utilisation of the time spent inside the car. As a result, new business models arise to monetise the new opportunities, e.g. in automotive insurance and in-vehicle infotainment. L4/fully-automated vehicles will revolutionise transportation and mobility leading to what we call Intelligent Mobility.
What this report delivers
This report focuses on leading car manufacturers’ ADAS&AD portfolio, strategies and business models to transition towards full automation and self-driving cars. Moreover, it examines the regulatory landscape and other technical challenges and their implications on deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy.
Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.
Learn about the status of vehicle automation between 2016 and 2019:
What is the availability of key ADAS features, such as AEB, TSR, ACC, LKA, TJA, in leading carmakers in Europe, US and China? We provide in depth segmentation by SAE Level;
What is the penetration rate of SAE Level 0, 1 and 2 in European car sales?
Which OEMs lead L2 deployment in 2017-19 and why?
What changes in 2019-20 in terms of deployment of L2 and L3?
Understand the regulatory and engineering challenges carmakers face for the deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy:
What is the status of Autonomous Driving regulation in major car markets?
What are the differences in the legal and regulatory framework in Europe and the United States and how this will affect L3-5 deployment?
Which geography presents the most favorable environment for deployment of Level 3?
What breakthroughs are required in the area of SW/HW and validation for L3-4?
Read how carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving
How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities and when?
OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations
Learn why leading Tier-1s are well positioned to monetize ADAS growth
Who will lead and who will follow in the autonomous vehicle race until 2025?
Discover when leading carmakers will launch capabilities of L2, L3, L4 and L5 segmented into Driving (L2-TJA vs L3-TJP) and Parking features (e.g. L2-Self Park, L4-Valet Parking)
What are the trends by ADAS levels in Top Premium OEMs’ model range during 2016-25?
Learn about the penetration of different levels of autonomy in European car sales in 2021
Benchmark competition: strengths and weaknesses of ADAS&AD product portfolio, suppliers and competitiveness
Table of contents
1. The status of Autonomous Driving deployment in 2016-20 (21 pages)
The democratization of driver assistance systems accelerates fast but techno-economic deployment challenges persist
Regulation is delaying the transition to “conditional eyes-off the road”
Germany’s competitive advantage hindered by slow Level 3 regulatory update
Availability of Partially-automated models almost doubled in 2018
Level 2 features expand across carlines reaching the compact segment
ADAS content is increasing to bridge the technological gap for higher autonomy
Commercialization status of SAE Level 2 in Europe 2016-20: TJA, SP and RP availability in leading OEMs
L2-D status in Europe in 2016-20: Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) availability
Comparison of L2-D tech: speeds, lane change, hands-on detection, stop-in-lane, and naming strategy
L2-P status in Europe 2016-20: Self-park & Remote Parking availability
L2 penetration in European car sales in 2016-20
L2 OEM ranking in 2017 vs 2018: leaders & followers
SAE Level 1 status in Europe in 2016-19: ACC, AEB CUI, PA & LKA availability in OEMs
Level 0 penetration in Europe in 2016-19: BSM, DDM, FCW, LDW, and TSR
Marketing names for ADAS L0/L1 features in Top-6 Premium OEMs
Major Automated Driving & AMoD pilots in 2019-20: who tests what and where
The implications of Level 3-Conditionally automated driving to HMI
2. Regulatory, engineering and other challenges for the deployment of L3-L4 (17 pages)
Aggressive electrification goals for emission compliance & next auto era
Besides Tesla and Toyota’s who lead BEVs and HEVs respectively, most brands are still in the early stages of electrified-to brand’s European sales. But European Premium carmakers prepare a product offensive over the next 7 years announcing aggressive targets for up to one-third of sales coming from EVs.
Lithium-Ion battery technology is improving year by year with increased energy density and falling costs by KWh of energy. Balance of choices allowing lower costs, higher range, reduced battery size.
This report focuses on Premium car manufacturers’ electrified portfolio, strategies, and technology roadmaps to comply with regulation and democratize BEV, PHEV, HEV, FC & other AFVs by ‘25.
Dieselgate and high cost of electrified architecture drive European carmakers to mHEVs
While European carmakers boast about their plans to electrify their whole line-ups over the next decade, dedicated BEV architectures in most cases are coming by the end of this decade. In the meantime, amid pure diesel’s future at risk – due to emission scandals (VW Group “Dieselgate”), city bans, and removal of tax incentives – they need pragmatic cost-efficient electrification solutions to meet efficiency goal until they develop a dedicated electric architecture.
Switching to 48 Volt electrical systems within a modified version of the existing ICE architecture (aka Mild-Hybrid), presents a cheaper and easily integrated alternative to a Full Hybrid and can delay the -eventually unavoidable- redesign of the architecture and tooling to accommodate a Hybrid or BEV variant.
Apart from efficiency, it allows carmakers to achieve enhanced performance without the need to switch to higher engine capacity. Finally, 48V systems can support the increasing powertrain content and augmented power requirements in modern cars.
The shift to 48V is evident in Mercedes-Benz’s strategy, starting with its flagship S-Class from 2017, which is replacing its V6 engine with a new I6 family with 48V mHEV ISG (Integrated Starter operator). The brand has stated that a 48V set-up will in effect replace all of its non-plug-in hybrids. Also, Volvo will integrate Maxwell’s ultracapacitor-based peak power subsystem into five mild-hybrid and plug-in hybrid Geely vehicle platforms for 2020.
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
Global Powertrain Outlook 2025 & new electrified market dynamics
Summary of carmakers’ electrification roadmaps & rankings
The impact of drivers of electrification vs technology and market readiness
AFV penetration in 2019 in Europe, USA, China and Japan
Electrification in the era of COVID-19 & the next phase
Sustainable powertrains as a business proposition
2. China New Energy Vehicles Forecasts
China’s new era: From import to China-made EVs
Chinese Passenger Car Sales Forecast 2015-2025
NEV & Hybrid Sales & Penetration Forecast 2015-2025 in China
Electrification Outlook in China up to 2025
Market shares of leading brands in NEVs between 2019-25
Battery Electric vehicles (BEV)
Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)
Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCEV)
The growth outlook and market dynamics for BEV, PHEV and FCV
Automotive Battery Forecast 2015-2025 in China
2. European Outlook for Electrified vehicles
The impact of COVID-19 on AFV sales in Europe
The growth outlook for BEV, PHEV and FCV
Key Figures for Sales of Passenger Cars in Europe During 2005-Q1’20
European Passenger Car Sales Forecast 2015-2025
European Electric & Hybrids Sales & Penetration Forecast 2015-2025
Automotive Battery Forecast 2015-2025 in Europe
Market shares by brand between 2019 and forecast for 2025
Battery Electric vehicles (BEV)
Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)
Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCEV)
Hybrids (HEV)
Other AFV: NGV and LPG
3. USA’s Electrified market
Powertrain mix evolution
Leaders vs losers
Key Figures & Analysis of the U.S Car Market
AFV Sales Status in the U.S in 2013-14
S Light Vehicle (LV) Sales Forecast 2015-2025
EV & Hybrid Sales & Penetration Forecast 2015-25 in the U.S
Automotive Battery Forecast 2015-2025 in the U.S
4. Electrified roadmaps of 7 major carmakers
Carmaker Electrification plans up to 2025
Powertrain portfolio mix 2015-2025: ICE, MHEV, ECV and other AFV
Audi
BMW
BYD
Mercedes-Benz
Porsche
Tesla
Volvo
For more information on this report, including sample pages and a full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562.
Learn about the market shares of ADAS Suppliers in camera, radar and lidar and leaders by ADAS revenue.
ADAS Revenue will almost double between 2020 & 2025 as ADAS Content per Vehicle rises
ADAS content per vehicle, i.e. the fitment of radars, cameras, ultrasonics, and other components necessary for driver assistance and higher levels of autonomy, will rise significantly in major car markets driven by changes in safety regulation and rating, the competition to offer higher levels of autonomy and lower cost of sensors.
Auto2x expects that in 2020, 42 models capable of Level 3 autonomy (TJP, HP) and 94 models with Level 2 (TJA, CA) –mostly as optional equipment – will be offered in Europe, despite the regulatory hurdles of the latter.
What is more, ADAS Content per Vehicle in 2020 will range from €489 for Level 2, with 17 sensors per car, to €960-2,100 for Level 3 depending on the usage of lidar or not as sensor set redundancy.
ADAS Suppliers are well-positioned to monetize the strong demand for ADAS components
We assess that the manufacturers of these components and systems for ADAS and Automated Driving are well-positioned to monetize the strong demand from carmakers and new entrants.
Already, Top ADAS Tier-1s such as Bosch, Continental, Aptiv, and Autoliv, has recorded billions of ADAS Order Intake in the Annual Reports while they continue to invest to increase production capacity and shorten time-to-market.
The leading 7 ADAS Suppliers will experience average ADAS revenue growth of CAGR 21.5% between 2017 and 2020 which will lead to changes in the global Ranking-by-ADAS Revenue. What’s more, the overall ADAS-to-Automotive Revenue ratio for the major suppliers will increase.
Magna’s profile in ADAS
Our new report examines the portfolio, strategy and roadmap of leading ADAS Suppliers to deliver:
1. Rankings and Market shares by ADAS Component Revenue in 2015-20 (€);
2. Ranking by ADAS-to-Automotive Revenue;
3. 2017 market shares in 77GH / 24GHz radar, camera, Lidar, and ultrasonic in Europe, USA and China, by sales of components to OEMs;
4. Competitive assessment and outlook for 2020;
5. Market shares of ADAS Suppliers in sales of L3 radar and Lidar in Europe in 2020.
ADAS penetration rates in new cars will increase significantly over the next 5 years driven primarily by changes in safety rating scoring and lower cost of sensors or implementation. Leading automotive suppliers expect that this will boost their revenues from ADAS and contribute significantly to their profitability as software plays an increasingly important role in the automotive industry.
Our research examines the rankings and market shares of ADAS hardware component suppliers (radar, cameras, Lidar, ultrasonic sensors) in 2014-20 by ADAS revenues.
2021 marks the transition to Highly-automated vehicles
Today, ADAS penetration is rising and Level 2 driving & parking features are available on the road from leading premium brands as well as Volume ones in Europe, U.S, China and Japan. L2 driving features enable convenience but require that the driver is ”always in the loop”, i.e. is constantly monitoring the road.
2017 saw Audi becoming the first to activate Level 3 driving features, which allow the driver to be distracted but awake to back-up the system. Also, by the end of 2021, advanced car markets, such as Europe, North America and Japan, will have transitioned to L3 and the first C-segment car with L3 will be unveiled.
Since many carmakers don’t design and manufacture ADAS features in-house, or more importantly, the cameras and radars for these features, they rely on suppliers who are the leading manufacturers and distributors of components and features.
Changes in safety rating scoring, as well as new safety requirements, push car OEMs to fit ADAS as standard equipment
In Europe, EuroNCAP extents to protect for Cyclists in the 2018 rating, while changes in scoring push OEMs to offer either TSR or LKA as standards- on top of LDW and City and Pedestrian AEB.
Leading suppliers already offer a strong sensor ADAS portfolio to meet the requirements of the stricter EuroNCAP’s 2020 Roadmap.
In the U.S, rear-visibility requirements coming into force in May 2018 require the installation of rear-view cameras in all vehicles to reduce back-over fatalities. What is more, rear pedestrian autobrake requirements by the NHTSA for the 2018 US NCAP push OEMs to develop new ADAS strategies.
ADAS are becoming cheaper and L1 features not exclusive to the premium car segment any more
Technological developments in ADAS, such as sensor fusion, economies of scale and system integration enable price reduction in ADAS.This has enabled safety and convenience ADAS features to expand to the mid and low-end car segments, particularly in safety-oriented Europe.
For example, Mercedes offers its whole Driver assistance package in the UK, which includes L1-L2 driving and parking features, for less than £2,000.
Carmakers and suppliers face the challenge of reducing production cost while increasing performance and complexity
However, ADAS suppliers face a series of important challenges which threaten their profitability from ADAS. Despite the increasing software complexity and requirements for greater computing power, ADAS suppliers need to achieve a healthy ‘’performance to cost ratio’’ in order for these technologies to reach mass-market adoption. New ADAS architectures and further collaborations with Tier 1s are expected in order to overcome these massive challenges.
Read this report to get an understanding of their rankings and market shares in 2015-17 and how they will develop over the next 3 years.
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary (5 pages)
ADAS Suppliers’ ranking by ADAS revenues: 2015-2020
Suppliers’ ranking in ADAS Sensors in Europe, USA and China in 2017
ADAS Suppliers’ ranking in Europe in 2017: Leaders by key sensors: radar, camera
ADAS Suppliers’ ranking in radar and Lidar: Europe 2017 vs 2020
Snapshot of the ADAS market revenues from Top-11 Suppliers in 2020
Insights from our report: Carmakers’ Automated Driving Roadmaps 2025
Learn how carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving
How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities and by when? We examine OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations to introduce driving and parking features from Level 2 to Level 4 in private cars
Learn why leading Tier-1s are well-positioned to monetize ADAS growth with forecasts for ADAS sensors
Requirements for Level 3 and 4 Automated Driving
Excerpts from our report: Top Tier-1 Suppliers’ ranking in ADAS 2020
The leading 7 ADAS Suppliers will experience average ADAS revenue growth of CAGR 21.5% between 2017 and 2020 which will lead to changes in the global Ranking-by-ADAS Revenue. What’s more, the overall ADAS-to-Automotive Revenue ratio for the major suppliers will increase. Read our report to understand how major suppliers are unlocking the new revenues from increasing fitment of ADAS features in passenger cars.
Magna’s profile in ADAS
Regulation for Autonomy, V2X & Cyber Security
The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what’s legal?
What carmakers say about regulation for Automated Driving
Automotive Cyber Security 2025: Secure Connected
Our report examines the current demand and supply status, including the regulatory status and offerings from leading companies in Automotive Cyber Security, and delivers forecasts on the development of the global Automotive Cyber Security market for passenger cars over the next decade, coupled with insightful interviews with leading cybersecurity vendors.
Interviews in Automotive Cyber Security
Table of contents
1. The status of Automated Driving deployment by Level in 2016-20
Democratization of ADAS accelerates fast but techno-economic deployment challenges of L3 persist
Commercialization status of SAE Level 2
The impact of AD regulation on L3 deployment
2. Carmakers’ADAS & Automated Driving roadmap, strategy & outlook up to 2025
Audi
BMW’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set; AD outlook and roadmap
Daimler: Mercedes-Benz
Mercedes-Benz’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set; AD outlook
Tesla
Tesla’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set; AD outlook and roadmap
Volvo
Volvo’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set; AD outlook and roadmap
3. Rankings & market shares of ADAS component Suppliers in 2015-18 & ‘20
Ranking of suppliers by Automotive Revenue during 2015-17
Ranking of suppliers by total ADAS revenue between 2015 & 2018 & Forecast up to 2020
Learn which Suppliers have recorded the stronger ADAS revenue growth during 2015-17
Suppliers’ Shares in combined Top-11 ADAS Revenue in 2016-17
ADAS-to-Automotive Revenue in 2015-18 & 2020 for leading Suppliers
4. Leading ADAS suppliers: analysis, portfolio & key figures
Aptiv (ex-Delphi Automotive)
Aptiv’s ADAS revenues, competitive position in ADAS & outlook by 2020
Bosch
Bosch’s ADAS revenues, competitive position in ADAS & outlook by 2020
Continental
Continental’s ADAS revenues, competitive position in ADAS & outlook by 2020
Magna
Magna’s ADAS revenues, competitive position in ADAS & outlook by 2020
5. Regulation for Automated Driving and Cyber Security
Autonomous Driving regulation in Europe, USA, China and Japan
Automotive Cyber Security regulatory action in the USA
UN regulation on Automotive Cyber Security: European Union and Japan
ISO/SAE 21434: a joint standard to harmonise Automotive Cyber Security
What regulatory/legal action is needed to secure Connected Cars?
Artificial Intelligence is one of the key enablers for the transition from today’s driver assistance systems to self-driving chauffeurs in private cars, ride-hailing (optimization of pricing in car-sharing, robotaxis) and other use cases of Automated-Mobility-on-Demand (AMoD), such as first / last mile mobility.
This report captures the maturity of Artificial Intelligent-based automotive applications for Automated Driving in private cars and shared mobility. It also provides expert insights on strategic innovation from leading companies.
AI in Automated Driving
European Commission’s first attempt to regulate “high risk” AI
Proposed legal requirements for high-risk AI applications-only for the future regulatory framework include: data training and record-keeping, human oversight, information provision when interacting with an AI system, robustness and accuracy
EC’s approach is based on 3 pillars: being ahead of technological developments, foresee the socio-economic impact and establish an ethical and legal framework
On February 20th, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen announced in her political Guidelines a coordinated European approach on the human and ethical implications of AI as well as a reflection on the better use of big data for innovation.
The paper is seen as the first attempt to regulate AI and forms part of the European Union’s grand plan for regulating technology over the next years. The EC points out the risks posed by AI, the existing laws that apply to AI, plus its intention to update laws to fix any gaps which may exist.
The framework would prescribe a number of mandatory legal requirements for “high risk” AI applications in order to ensure the regulatory intervention is proportionate.
EC suggests legal requirements for a future regulatory framework on high-risk AI applications only:
Training AI data on accurate, representative data
Keeping accurate records of the data used to train and test the AI systems, the data themselves and the programming and training methodologies
Information provision to individuals so that they know when they are interacting with an AI
Requiring human oversight for AI systems
The European Commission is seeking comments until 19th May 2020. Then they will start drafting legislation based on these proposals and comments at the end of 2020.
Table of contents
1. Executive Summary (5 pages)
AI penetration in ADAS in 2018-19 by application or feature & also by geography
Investment in AI in AD 2016-18 & distribution by type
Company initiatives & product roadmaps 2018-20
Key trends in AI-AD ecosystem:
How the main challenges are being addressed?
Partnerships
New players
2. Today’s use cases & emerging opportunities for AI in Automated Driving (20 pages)
AI in perception sensors for visual recognition: front-facing camera and radar
Digital maps enhanced with artificial intelligence for highly automated driving
AI supercomputers/Central domain controllers from leading suppliers & carmakers
AI in vehicle Actuation: Features
AI & machine learning in Automated Mobility on Demand (AMoD): robotaxis & micro-mobility
Robotaxis
Micro-mobility
Intelligent Transportation Systems
3. Roadmap & Forecast (15 pages)
Product roadmap 2018-25 from carmakers, major suppliers and innovative startups
Investment data: measuring the investment gap
Market penetration Forecast 2018-25
Market sizing: Capturing the size of the opportunity
Product Benchmarking
4. 25 Major company profiles: strategy, product portfolio & roadmap (25p)
Carmakers
Audi: AI in zFAS, empathetic concepts
BMW
GM & Cruise Automation
Hyundai
Tesla: DNN for AI chip for Full-Self Driving & robotaxis
Toyota
VW
Major automotive suppliers
APTIV
Alibaba
Bosch
Continental
HERE
Mobileye
NVIDIA
Valeo
ZF
Mobility Service providers
Waymo
Cruise Automation
Uber
Startups
AEye (idar lidar)
AIMotive
Cognata (simulation)
Metawave (Warlord radar)
ai
ThinCI
For more information on this report, including sample pages and a full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562.
Our European Autonomous Driving forecast finds that European carmakers will lead the race in Autonomous Driving deployment over the next decade
The vehicle automation mix of the European passenger car market will change significantly over the next decade due to the proliferation of Automated Driving Systems (ADS) for higher vehicle autonomy. The commercialization of Conditionally & Fully-Unsupervised driving has the potential to improve road safety, convenience, and productivity.
Europe presents a favorable environment for the introduction and adoption of higher autonomy given the leadership of European brands in the Advanced Driver Assistance market, government support, and developed road infrastructure. However, the regulatory, legal, and insurance framework still need to evolve to support fully autonomous cars.
2018 was the year of data validation for Level 3 features but 2021 is the year of deployment
November 2017 saw the launch of the first-ever Level 3 capable car, Audi’s A8 equipped with the AI Traffic Jam Pilot, but Audi’s system has not been activated yet due to data validation requirements and other regulatory hurdles. After the completion of the necessary data collection and validation, activation of Level 3 is expected to occur by mid-2018 via SOTA.
Deployment of Conditional-Automation (SAE L3) in Europe will come in 2021 since carmakers did not take advantage of exemptions from the regulatory framework since 2018
Europe, continues to be a favourable environment for SAE L3 deployment, gaining significant government support in leading markets, especially in the UK and Germany. However, Type Approval of L3 is not allowed yet, as with the rest of UN-ECE, while only Germany legally allows “eyes-off” (in L3). As a result, OEMs will seek exemptions to deploy Level 3 in the EU under the (EU) Article 20; but this exemption does not apply to other UN-ECE counterparties, e.g. South America and Asia, effectively restraining L3 deployment.
Volvo is skipping Level 3 automated driving as unsafe
Mar’17 saw Volvo’s CEO announcing that the company will skip Level 3 mainly because the handover of vehicle control to driver in case of emergency is deemed unsafe. Instead, the company will only offer (completely) unsupervised autonomous mode when it’s safe, for which it will assume full responsibility. Whereas Volvo characterises that mode as L4, no uniform definitions exist (although SAE’s definitions are widely accepted), therefore it’s still unclear if Volvo’s Intellisafe offerings will be a true L4.
As a reminder, Audi has also promised to be liable when its L3 is in active mode. Mercedes has expressed a similar approach, at least as long as it can guarantee the “best or nothing” moto. Thus, it’s expected the updated version of its (Level 2) Drive Pilot in the upcoming flagship S-Class will also be marketed as an Assistive Level 2 system, even though its capabilities could probably support Level 3.
Models offering Partial-Automation (SAE Level 2) for Driving and Parking will more than double in 2018
Volume carmakers launch Self-Parking and Remote-Parking capabilities for the first time in Europe in 2018. At the same time, Top-Premium brands, which already offer L2-Parking features, will expand functionality across their models.
Leading ADAS suppliers are forming supply chain partnerships with carmakers and Tier 2s, such as Magna-Mobileye.
Table of contents
Chapter 1: European Autonomous Driving roadmap: Driving features, L2-D to L4-D, 2015-25
Deployment of Autonomous Driving in the European market in 2018: what to expect
ADAS & AD Roadmap of 36 leading brands in Europe 2015-25
European car sales forecast by Levels of Automation for Driving features 2015-2025
Market shares in European car sales by level of automation 2015-25: Driving features
OEM market shares in European car sales by AD level: 2021 vs 2025
Partial automation European forecast up to 2025: from low-speed, single-lane Traffic Jam Assists to multi-lane, high-speed Cruise Assist systems
Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) vs Cruise Assist (CA) shares forecast 2015-2025
Level 3 European forecast: up to 2025
Carmaker strategies, sensor set and validation for Level 3
L3-D sales forecast in Europe 2018-2025
Traffic Jam Pilot (TJP) vs Highway Pilot (HP) shares forecast 2015-25
L4-Full automation in European passenger cars over the next decade
L4 in robo-taxis (fixed routes) vs private ownership
Chapter 2: European AD roadmap: Parking features, L2-P to L4-P, 2015-21
European car sales forecast by Levels of Automation for Parking features 2015-2021
Market shares in European car sales by level of automation 2015-25: Parking features
OEM market shares in European car sales of AD-Parking features in 2021
Trends in L2-P to L4-P European forecast until 2021
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New Autonomous Driving Regulations and the Legal framework still need to evolve to allow higher vehicle autonomy
As the automotive and technology industries race to higher vehicle levels of Autonomous Driving, the regulatory barrier becomes a determinant of their commercialization strategies. Regulation allowing the introduction of Level 3 from the UNECE will enter into force from January 2021 but the first-ever SAE Level 3-automated driving system in Audi’s flagship A8 has already been announced but customer availability is subject to regional regulatory approval across the world.
The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems will allow the shift from Supervised driving to Conditionally & Completely-Unsupervised driving.
There is a growing concern over the lack of harmonization of Autonomous Driving regulation
However, there are inherent differences between the regulatory and legal framework across Europe, the USA, and China. This could adversely affect harmonization of common standards and also delay the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.
What is the impact of regulation on the deployment strategies of carmakers?
Cyber Security is the new frontier for Automated and Connected Cars
Connected Car security needs to expand from its Physical dimension to cover the Cyber-Physical dimension and from the In-Vehicle-Network to the Internet-of-Things.
While recent “white hack” demonstrations have raised awareness of the risk the automotive industry faces amid the proliferation of Connected Cars, connected devices and V2X, the slow progress of regulation and the absence of common standards restrict the adoption of ACS solutions.
Standardization of the medium for V2V-V2I (DSRC vs cellular) restricts deployment
Even though V2V-V2I communications are not a technical prerequisite for Level 3 or higher, they can enhance safety by helping to overcome the limitations of onboard ADAS sensors, e.g. line-of-sight, weather conditions.
The industry-wide adoption of DSRC vs cellular V2X, which is associated with cost, robustness and financial viability, together with the spectrum-sharing decisions present the key technical challenges for V2V-V2I deployment in key geographies.
What this report delivers
This report focuses on regulation covering Conditionally (Level 3) & Completely-Unsupervised driving (Level 4-5) with or without driver controls, which are in the epicenter of regulatory developments because they will allow (limited to specific use cases or full) hands-off the steering wheel, eyes-off and eventually brain-off.
Furthermore, our analysis, provides a regulatory guide for some other rising issues relevant to Automated Driving, namely securing Automated and Connected Cars, V2X (V2V-V2I) communications and the impact on motor insurance.
Check Out our Latest Whitepaper on V2X regulation
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Check Out our Latest Whitepaper on V2X regulation
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Table of contents
Executive summary
Key findings
Overview of regulations and legals by key category examined in this report
1. Autonomous Driving regulation for SAE Lv.3 systems (33 pages)
Autonomous Driving regulation: the gap between current and future tech vs regulation
Inherent differences in regulatory process & race to autonomy raise concerns over the lack of harmonization of AD regulation
How does regulation affect deployment? Favorable geographies for L3 deployment
UNECE: The amendment of UN R79 vs a Horizontal regulation
The amendment of the 1968 Vienna Convention on Road Traffic
The amendment of UN R79 is the critical step towards self-steering systems that will unlock Level 3-4 deployment
Automated Lane Keeping Systems (ALKS) regulation for Lv.3
Three concerns arising from the R79’s amendment
European Autonomous Driving Forecast: L1-L4 car sales up to 2025
Germany to lead Autonomous Driving deployment in Europe driven by supportive AD framework
L3 automated driving to become legal in Germany from autumn’17
Review of Germany’s Autonomous Driving Ethical Guidelines
Great opportunities for the UK to compete as a global hub of AD innovation, testing and deployment
Overview of the UK’s Autonomous Drivingregulatory activity
Flexible Autonomous Driving regulatory framework in USA but concerns over safety enforcement and harmonisation
L3 deployment strategy in the U.S based on the regulatory landscape
The USA has opened up the road to L3-5 with voluntary guidelines: ADS Vision for Safety-v2
Assessment of USA AD policy: Guidelines (voluntary) vs Regulation (mandatory)
Action to harmonise state law: LEAD’R Act & SELF-DRIVE Act
China’s regulation for Intelligent and Connected Vehicles (ICVs)
Status of AD regulation in China & roadmap for ICV standards
Concerns over the regulatory action needed in China
Japan’s AD regulatory status
Summary of AD regulatory developments in other leading markets
Europe
Asia, Asia-Pacific & North and South America
2. Active Safety Regulation for ADAS Lv.1-2 & NCAP Lv.2 Rating (4 pages)
The problem with driver distraction, confusion or misuse because of ADAS UX/UI
UN GSRII mandates Active Safety equipment to tackle driver distraction
EuroNCAP’s 2020 rating for Highway Assist / Lv.2 features
3. Data recording and liability in SAE Level 3 (4 pages)
Learn why we need Automated Driving-Event Data Recorders
Regulatory guidance on data recording and storage for L3 is immature
L3 vehicle automation presents challenges & opportunities for the insurance value chain
4. Automotive Cyber Security regulation in major car markets (12 pages)
The absence of regulatory mandates restricts the timely adoption and standardization of Automotive Cyber Security solutions
Automotive Cyber Security regulatory action in the USA
UN regulation on Automotive Cyber Security: European Union and Japan
ISO/SAE 21434: a joint standard to harmonise Auto Cyber Security
What regulatory/legal action is needed to secure Connected Cars?
5. V2X (V2V-V2I) regulation (11 pages)
How could V2V and V2I communications help towards road safety?
V2V isn’t a technical prerequisite for HAVs but can enhance their safety
State of the art: V2V & V2I already on the road today
V2V-V2I regulatory roadmap: UN, USA and China
Security and privacy in DSRC-based V2V and V2I
Insights on the regulatory activity for V2X with CTO of Autotalks
V2X deployment status raises concerns over the lack of harmonization
Learn how regulatory guidance for V2X will evolve in major markets
Weighting in the debate between DSRC / ITS-G5 and C-V2X
Understand which V2X-supported features will come to market first
Winners from the installation of V2X sensors & infrastructure
6. Regulation for Artificial Intelligence in Automotive (2 pages)
European Commission’s first attempt to regulate “high risk” AI applications
This report is part of our Autonomous, Intelligent & Secure car portfolio of reports. For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or using Contact us form
Automotive Cyber Security to rise over the next decade. As automobiles become more Connected and Fully automated, in-vehicle safety will expand from its physical dimension to yet cover the Cyber-Physical aspect.
A layered approach is required in addition to minimum requirements of ”identification, detection, prevention, response and recovery we be mandated” which will probably become mandatory over the next five years. These drivers are expected to fuel growth in the Automotive Cyber Security Market
How prepared are global OEMs to rising cybersecurity issues? What kind of solutions do they already incorporate in their products?
What is the regional status of vehicle cybersecurity regulation, standards and best practices?
What are the software, hardware automotive cybersecurity solutions and services offered by leading vendors in 2019
Who will lead the marketplace?
How great will the discrepancy between cyber security and Connected Car penetration be over the next decade? How quickly will modern vehicles be secure and what challenges do OEMs face during this process?
In the wake of the recent car hacks by cyber security researchers, which demonstrate that Connected Car vulnerabilities exist, concerns about malicious attacks are real and imminent, as expressed by a joint announcement from NHTSA and the FBI in March 2016.
The era of the Connected Car is here but carmakers are not ready for the level of information security this requires
While OEMs strive to roll out more and more Connected Cars and models equipped with ADAS, in an attempt to gain competitive advantage and enhance costumer-loyalty, they face an important challenge. To ensure that these new types of modern vehicles guarantee not only safety but also secure internal-external data transmission and privacy against cyber threats. This is because connecting the vehicle to its external environment introduces what is called a Cyber-Physical System making the car susceptible to cyber attacks.
Additionally, as Vehicle-to-Vehicle and Vehicle-to-Infrastructure communications expand, they unveil another segment in the cybersecurity chain which can have even greater implications; therefore, it requires even more risk management. These drivers are expected to fuel growth in the Automotive Cyber Security Market.
Vehicle Cybersecurity is a key part of USDOT’s Federal Autonomous Vehicle Policy
September 20th, 2016 saw the USDOT announcing voluntary federal guidelines for Highly Automated Vehicles (HAVs) to promote safe and secure AV testing and deployment across the country. Vehicle Cybersecurity is one of the 15 objectives of the Safety Assessment for AV testing and deployment with the USDOT stating that ”The identification, protection, detection, response, and recovery functions should be used to enable risk management decisions, address risks and threats, and enable quick response to and learning from cybersecurity events.”
DOT’s decision not to mandate cybersecurity rules has attracted criticism from Senators Edward J. Markey, and Richard Blumenthal who introduced the SPY Car Act in July 2017.
Our 81-page report identifies the drivers that will fuel growth in the Automotive Cyber Security market over the next decade and provides a roadmap of adoption for Cyber Security solutions for Connected Cars. Additionally, it delivers an insight into the evolution of the market landscape, drawing conclusions from a panel of industry experts and our in-house expertise.
Table of Contents
1. Executive Summary
1.1. Penetration of Automotive Cyber Security & evolution of secure Connected Cars
1.2. Learn how the competitive landscape will change by 2025
1.2.1. Regulation
1.2.2. Funding & Investments
1.2.3. New mobility (AMoD) increases security requirements
1.3. Strategic recommendations to players
1.3.1. Car manufacturers
1.3.2. Automotive cyber security companies
1.3.3. Major automotive suppliers strengthening their cyber security competence
2. Automotive Cyber Security: state of the art in 2019
1. What makes Cyber Security a top priority for carmakers?
2.2. Learn about the Market Status of Automotive Cyber Security in 2019
2.2.1. Carmakers’ cyber security expertise is low for the already high level of Connected Car penetration
2.2.2. There is no Automotive Cyber Security regulation in place
2.2.3. Demand for solutions is in its infancy despite increasing supply
2.3. Funding & Investments
3. Automotive Cyber Security Forecast 2025
1. Market definition
3.2. Automotive Cyber Security Penetration Forecast 2015 2025
3.2.1. Hardware vs software-based solutions & cyber security services
3.2.2. Forecast of cost of Automotive Cyber Security solutions per vehicle
3.3. Drivers of growth vs restraints & challenges for adoption
3.3.1. Drivers of growth for Automotive Cyber Security
3.3.2. Restraints and challenges of adoption
3.4. Global & regional Connected Car Forecast 2015-2025
3.5. Forecast of cars equipped with OTA Software update Capability by 2025
3.6. US V2V & V2I Communications Penetration Forecast up to 2025
4. Interviews with industry experts: insights from 7 buzzing startups
Argus Cyber Security Ltd
Arilou Technologies Ltd
Cisco Systems Inc.
Karamba Security
SBD & NCC Group
TowerSec
Trillium Incorporated
5. 22 leading suppliers in Automotive Cyber Security
Argus Cyber Security Ltd
Arilou Technologies Ltd
BT Security
Cisco Systems Inc.
ESCRYPT-Embedded Security
Harman
Intel Corporation
Karamba Security
NXP Semiconductors
SBD & NCC Group
Secunet AG
Security Innovation
Symphoty Teleca & Guardtime
Trillium Incorporated
Utimaco IS GmbH
APTIV
Bosh
Continental
Denso
Harman
Magna
Valeo
Other leading companies in the Automotive Cyber Security Market
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