Hydrogen mobility presents significant growth opportunities in the next decade as a cleaner alternative to battery electric vehicles. In this report, we examine the roadmaps of carmakers to transition to Fuel cell car portfolios as well as the evolution of market dynamics.

Table of contents 

Executive Summary

1.PESTLE analysis for Hydrogen Fuel Cell Mobility

1. Political
2. Economic
3. Social
4. Technology
5. Legal
6. Environmental

2.The status of Hydrogen Fuel Cell adoption in Mobility

1. Fuel cell penetration in Passenger Car sales 2014-H1’20 vs 2025
   1. FCV penetration in new car sales in Europe 2014-H1’20
   2. USA
   3. China
   4. Japan
   5. South Korea
   6. Other key geographies
2. Competition & Roadmaps of leading carmakers
   1. Audi
   2. BMW
   3. Hyundai
   4. Mercedes
   5. Toyota
   6. Others
3. Technology innovation in catalysts
   1. Platinum catalysts
   2. Infrastructure

3.Hydrogen Mobility in Commercial Vehicles & Buses

1. Penetration in China, Europe, USA and
2. Business Models
3. Roadmaps of key players

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Aggressive electrification goals for emission compliance & next auto era

Besides Tesla and Toyota’s who lead BEVs and HEVs respectively, most brands are still in the early stages of electrified-to brand’s European sales. But European Premium carmakers prepare a product offensive over the next 7 years announcing aggressive targets for up to one-third of sales coming from EVs.

Lithium-Ion battery technology is improving year by year with increased energy density and falling costs by KWh of energy. Balance of choices allowing lower costs, higher range, reduced battery size.

This report focuses on Premium car manufacturers’ electrified portfolio, strategies, and technology roadmaps to comply with regulation and democratize BEV, PHEV, HEV, FC & other AFVs by ‘25.

Dieselgate and high cost of electrified architecture drive European carmakers to mHEVs

While European carmakers boast about their plans to electrify their whole line-ups over the next decade, dedicated BEV architectures in most cases are coming by the end of this decade. In the meantime, amid pure diesel’s future at risk – due to emission scandals (VW Group “Dieselgate”), city bans, and removal of tax incentives – they need pragmatic cost-efficient electrification solutions to meet efficiency goal until they develop a dedicated electric architecture.

Switching to 48 Volt electrical systems within a modified version of the existing ICE architecture (aka Mild-Hybrid), presents a cheaper and easily integrated alternative to a Full Hybrid and can delay the -eventually unavoidable- redesign of the architecture and tooling to accommodate a Hybrid or BEV variant.

Apart from efficiency, it allows carmakers to achieve enhanced performance without the need to switch to higher engine capacity. Finally, 48V systems can support the increasing powertrain content and augmented power requirements in modern cars.

The shift to 48V is evident in Mercedes-Benz’s strategy, starting with its flagship S-Class from 2017, which is replacing its V6 engine with a new I6 family with 48V mHEV ISG (Integrated Starter operator). The brand has stated that a 48V set-up will in effect replace all of its non-plug-in hybrids. Also, Volvo will integrate Maxwell’s ultracapacitor-based peak power subsystem into five mild-hybrid and plug-in hybrid Geely vehicle platforms for 2020.

Table of Contents

1. Executive Summary

1. Global Powertrain Outlook 2025 & new electrified market dynamics
2. Summary of carmakers’ electrification roadmaps & rankings
3. The impact of drivers of electrification vs technology and market readiness
   1. AFV penetration in 2019 in Europe, USA, China and Japan
   2. Electrification in the era of COVID-19 & the next phase
   3. Sustainable powertrains as a business proposition

2. China New Energy Vehicles Forecasts

1. China’s new era: From import to China-made EVs
2. Chinese Passenger Car Sales Forecast 2015-2025
3. NEV & Hybrid Sales & Penetration Forecast 2015-2025 in China
4. Electrification Outlook in China up to 2025
5. Market shares of leading brands in NEVs between 2019-25
   1. Battery Electric vehicles (BEV)
   2. Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)
   3. Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCEV)
6. The growth outlook and market dynamics for BEV, PHEV and FCV
7. Automotive Battery Forecast 2015-2025 in China

2. European Outlook for Electrified vehicles 

1. The impact of COVID-19 on AFV sales in Europe
2. The growth outlook for BEV, PHEV and FCV
3. Key Figures for Sales of Passenger Cars in Europe During 2005-Q1’20
4. European Passenger Car Sales Forecast 2015-2025
5. European Electric & Hybrids Sales & Penetration Forecast 2015-2025
6. Automotive Battery Forecast 2015-2025 in Europe
7. Market shares by brand between 2019 and forecast for 2025
   1. Battery Electric vehicles (BEV)
   2. Plug-in Hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV)
   3. Fuel-Cell Vehicles (FCEV)
   4. Hybrids (HEV)
   5. Other AFV: NGV and LPG

3. USA’s Electrified market

1. Powertrain mix evolution
2. Leaders vs losers
3. Key Figures & Analysis of the U.S Car Market
4. AFV Sales Status in the U.S in 2013-14
5. S Light Vehicle (LV) Sales Forecast 2015-2025
6. EV & Hybrid Sales & Penetration Forecast 2015-25 in the U.S
7. Automotive Battery Forecast 2015-2025 in the U.S

4. Electrified roadmaps of 7 major carmakers

1. Carmaker Electrification plans up to 2025
2. Powertrain portfolio mix 2015-2025: ICE, MHEV, ECV and other AFV
   1. Audi
   2. BMW
   3. BYD
   4. Mercedes-Benz
   5. Porsche
   6. Tesla
   7. Volvo

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Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car Report Portfolio

Carmakers are investing in Automated Driving to create a new USP

This report focuses on leading car manufacturers’ ADAS & Automated Driving portfolio and their strategies to transition towards full automation and self-driving cars. Moreover, it examines the regulatory landscape and other technical challenges and their implications on deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy.

Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.

1. Learn about the status of vehicle automation in 2019-20:
   1. What is the availability of key ADAS features, such as AEB, TSR, ACC, LKA, TJA, in leading carmakers in Europe? We provide in depth segmentation by ADAS/SAE Level;
   2. What is the penetration rate of SAE Level 0, 1 and 2 in European car sales in 2016-20?
   3. Which OEMs lead L2 deployment and why?
   4. What changes in 2017 in terms of deployment of L2 and L3?
2. Understand the regulatory and engineering challenges carmakers face for the deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy:
   1. What is the status of Autonomous Driving regulation in major car markets?
   2. What are the differences in the legal and regulatory framework in Europe and the United States and how this will affect L3-5 deployment?
   3. Which geography presents the most favorable environment for deployment of Level 3?
   4. What breakthroughs are required in the area of SW/HW and validation for L3-4?
3. Read how carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving
   1. How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities and when?
   2. OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations
4. Discover when leading carmakers will launch capabilities of L2, L3, L4 and L5 segmented into Driving (L2-TJA vs L3-TJP) and Parking features (e.g. L2-Self Park, L4-Valet Parking)
   1. What are the trends by ADAS levels in Top Premium OEMs’ model range during 2016-25?
   2. Learn about the penetration of different levels of autonomy in European car sales by 2025
   3. Benchmark competition: strengths and weaknesses of ADAS&AD product portfolio, suppliers and competitiveness

Leading ADAS Suppliers to monetize ADAS growth

Leading manufacturers of the cameras, radars, Lidar, and ultrasonic sensors used for ADAS will benefit from the uptake of ADAS penetration and the eventual transition towards semi-autonomous and self-driving cars.

Read about the product portfolio (ADAS features and sensors) and key figures of Bosch, Continental, Autoliv, Aptiv, and Denso, including sales of sensors (where available). Learn how their shares will develop during 2017-2020.

1. Ranking by ADAS-to-Automotive revenue in 2017 vs 2020;
2. Market shares of Suppliers in 2017-19 in Europe, USA and China by sales of:
   1. Camera sensors (Stereo, Mono, Infrared)
   2. Radar sensors (77GHz and 24GHz)
   3. LIDAR (short-range, scanning)
   4. Ultrasonic sensors
3. Market shares of ADAS Suppliers in sales of L3 radar and Lidar in Europe in 2020;
4. Learn why ADAS suppliers will be the ones to benefit most rising ADAS penetration during 2015-20
5. Read how regulation and the increasing role of software will unveil business opportunities for leading suppliers
6. Gain an understanding of the current state of market competition in the ADAS market:
   1. Read about the status of ADAS revenues of leading suppliers in 2015-20 (EUR million)
   2. Trends in ADAS radar, camera-based ADAS and sensor fusion until 2020
   3. Get insights on recent M&A, product deployment and regulation/legislation
7. Read about the product portfolio (ADAS features and sensors) and key figures of ADAS top Tier-1s including sales of sensors (where available). Learn how their shares will develop during 2017-2020

The Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car portfolio is priced at £10,000, providing savings of 28% for the 4 reports:

1. 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025: leading carmakers’ roadmap and strategy to commercialize Autonomous Driving (individually priced at £5,000)
2. Automotive Cyber Security Market Forecast: the secure Connected Car (£3,259)
3. Regulatory guide to Autonomous Driving, Automotive Cyber Security & V2X (£2,699)
4. Rankings and market shares of Top Tier-1 ADAS Suppliers by 2020 (£2,799)

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Leading carmakers’ roadmap and strategy to commercialize Automated Driving

2019 saw the introduction of LEVEL 3 technology that allows drivers to take their “eyes-off” the road under specific conditions

Technologically, 2017 was the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (Level 3) with Audi becoming the first to introduce a L3-Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval. This means that the introduction of ”eyes-off-the road” technology could be delayed to end of 2019 / early 2020.

In Level 3, the driver can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’.

But the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the takeover request.

Today, Tesla’s Navigate on Autopilot is the only Level 3 system on the market as L3 deployment is still subject to regional regulatory approval in Europe, Japan and China – USA follows a different regulatory framework. The differences in regulatory and legal framework across leading car markets could result in lack of harmonization and requirements for design variants which could adversely impact manufacturers of Automated Driving Systems as well as the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.

Partially automated (L2) model offerings expand to the compact segment

At the same time, more carmakers are introducing L2 parking and driving capabilities and expand L2 feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment.

This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements and competition drive fitment of ADAS.

New entrants compete for a share in the new mobility era

Carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, such as tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo) and MNOs compete in the autonomous vehicle race to establish a winning portfolio or just remain competitive.

However, many of the engineering, regulatory/legal and ethical challenges for deployment of higher levels of autonomy remain unresolved.

Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but harmonization will be a challenge

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what’s legal?

What is the status of AD regulation in Europe and the U.S? What is the impact on L3 deployment?

Which geography presents the most favourable environment for deployment of Level 3?

Clear guidance on the safe and secure development, testing and deployment of AV technologies is necessary as well as harmonisation of homologation standards or vehicle certification in order to comply with safety standards.

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A higher level of automation requires augmented sensor set, architecture and enhanced robustness

A Mobileye executive has recently described the challenge and complexity of launching SAE L4, i.e. Highly-autonomous cars which are equipped with chauffeur driving and valet parking features among others, with putting a man on the moon.

Further development in machine learning is required in the area of maps and image processing, to improve object recognition and subsequently decision-making in split-second timeframe. Tesla and Ford have announced developments in this area together with some leading Tier-1s.

How are carmakers forging their HW and SW portfolio to enable L3 and higher levels of automation?

How will this affect the mobility ecosystem and the supply chain?

New business models arise in the new era of smart mobility

The approval of L3 will allow greater utilisation of the time spent inside the car. As a result, new business models arise to monetise the new opportunities, e.g. in automotive insurance and in-vehicle infotainment. L4/fully-automated vehicles will revolutionise transportation and mobility leading to what we call Intelligent Mobility.

What this report delivers

This report focuses on leading car manufacturers’ ADAS&AD portfolio, strategies and business models to transition towards full automation and self-driving cars. Moreover, it examines the regulatory landscape and other technical challenges and their implications on deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy.

Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.

• Learn about the status of vehicle automation between 2016 and 2019:
  • What is the availability of key ADAS features, such as AEB, TSR, ACC, LKA, TJA, in leading carmakers in Europe, US and China? We provide in depth segmentation by SAE Level;
  • What is the penetration rate of SAE Level 0, 1 and 2 in European car sales?
  • Which OEMs lead L2 deployment in 2017-19 and why?
  • What changes in 2019-20 in terms of deployment of L2 and L3?
• Understand the regulatory and engineering challenges carmakers face for the deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy:
  • What is the status of Autonomous Driving regulation in major car markets?
  • What are the differences in the legal and regulatory framework in Europe and the United States and how this will affect L3-5 deployment?
  • Which geography presents the most favorable environment for deployment of Level 3?
  • What breakthroughs are required in the area of SW/HW and validation for L3-4?
• Read how carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving
  • How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities and when?
  • OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations
  • Learn why leading Tier-1s are well positioned to monetize ADAS growth
• Who will lead and who will follow in the autonomous vehicle race until 2025?
  • Discover when leading carmakers will launch capabilities of L2, L3, L4 and L5 segmented into Driving (L2-TJA vs L3-TJP) and Parking features (e.g. L2-Self Park, L4-Valet Parking)
  • What are the trends by ADAS levels in Top Premium OEMs’ model range during 2016-25?
  • Learn about the penetration of different levels of autonomy in European car sales in 2021
  • Benchmark competition: strengths and weaknesses of ADAS&AD product portfolio, suppliers and competitiveness

Table of contents

1. The status of Autonomous Driving deployment in 2016-20 (21 pages)

1. The democratization of driver assistance systems accelerates fast but techno-economic deployment challenges persist
   1. Regulation is delaying the transition to “conditional eyes-off the road”
   2. Germany’s competitive advantage hindered by slow Level 3 regulatory update
   3. Availability of Partially-automated models almost doubled in 2018
   4. Level 2 features expand across carlines reaching the compact segment
   5. ADAS content is increasing to bridge the technological gap for higher autonomy
2. Commercialization status of SAE Level 2 in Europe 2016-20: TJA, SP and RP availability in leading OEMs
   1. L2-D status in Europe in 2016-20: Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) availability
   2. Comparison of L2-D tech: speeds, lane change, hands-on detection, stop-in-lane, and naming strategy
   3. L2-P status in Europe 2016-20: Self-park & Remote Parking availability
   4. L2 penetration in European car sales in 2016-20
   5. L2 OEM ranking in 2017 vs 2018: leaders & followers
3. SAE Level 1 status in Europe in 2016-19: ACC, AEB CUI, PA & LKA availability in OEMs
4. Level 0 penetration in Europe in 2016-19: BSM, DDM, FCW, LDW, and TSR
   • Marketing names for ADAS L0/L1 features in Top-6 Premium OEMs
5. Major Automated Driving & AMoD pilots in 2019-20: who tests what and where
6. The implications of Level 3-Conditionally automated driving to HMI

2. Regulatory, engineering and other challenges for the deployment of L3-L4 (17 pages)

1. Read why regulation challenges Autonomous Driving deployment
2. Overview of AD regulatory & legal status in key geographies in 2018-19
3. The amendment of Reg.79-Steering equipment will allow L3 deployment in Europe
   1. Today ADAS are assistive and hands-on the wheel are always required
   2. Reg.79 amendment is the critical step towards self-steering systems
   3. Three concerns arising from the UNECE Reg.79’s amendment
4. The USA has opened up the road to HAVs with the FAVP
   1. State of AV testing in the United States in 2016/17
   2. Concern over U.S Federal Autonomous Vehicle Policy
5. L3 automated driving to become legal in Germany from autumn 2017
6. The impact of AD regulation on L3 deployment
7. Technical challenges for deployment and other key factors affecting AD adoption
8. Liability in L3 and the role of Event Data Recorders for AD
9. Vehicle Cybersecurity becomes a top priority for carmakers
   1. OEM and regulatory activity heats-up in major car markets
   2. What is needed to secure Connected Cars

3. OEM-Tier 1 strategies to commercialize Autonomous Driving (9 pages)  

1. Incremental vs skip approach to reach Highly automated driving
2. Building your own ADS platform vs collaboration
   1. Consortiums for L3-5 platforms, AMoD and HD maps
   2. Learn why leading ADAS Suppliers are well positioned to monetise ADAS growth
3. Digitalisation unlocks personalisation & new mobility services
4. Use cases and business models to commercialise L4/5
   1. Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)

4. From Assisted to Autonomous: L2-L4 roadmap from leading OEMs (22 pages)

1. Overview of L2-L4 Driving and Parking roadmap by OEM at earliest implementation
2. Automated Driving technology roadmap: key ADAS features and sensor set
   • The differences in roadmaps between L4 in passenger cars vs robotaxis
3. Aggregate sales forecast by L2-D to L4-Driving features in Europe, USA, China 2013-2025
   • Aggregate Level 2-Driving forecast in EU, USA and China between 2013 & 2025
   • Aggregate Level 3-Driving equipped car sales forecast up to 2025
   • Learn which geographies will lead Level 3 deployment
   • Aggregate sales of cars & LVs equipped with Level 4-Driving systems by 2025
4. European Automated Driving forecast up to 2025: Driving vs Parking features
   • European AD roadmap for driving features: L2-D to L4-D
   • Market shares of European car sales by level of automation during 2015-2025
   • The impact of EuroNCAP’s 2025 roadmap
   • Partial automation (L2-D) forecast in European car sales 2013-25
   • Conditional automation (L3-D) forecast in European car sales 2018-25
   • European L4-D sales forecast 2018-25
   • European AD roadmap for parking features: L2-P to L4-P
5. USA Automated Driving forecast for Driving features up to 2025
   • USA LV sales & penetration by Level 2 to L4 Driving features, 2013 and 2025
   • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L2-D features between 2013 & 2025
   • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L3-D features by 2025
   • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L4-D features between 2013 & 2025
6. China Automated Driving Forecast: L2-D to L4-Driving features 2013-2021
7. Lidar forecast up to 2030 in passenger cars

5. ADAS&AD portfolio & roadmap by leading OEM (48 pages)  

1. ADAS feature availability in model range and sensor set
2. Automated Driving outlook: product roadmap and model range by AD level 2016-2025
   1. Alfa Romeo
   2. Audi 
   3. BAIC
   4. Bentley
   5. BMW
   6. BYD
   7. Cadillac 
   8. Changan
   9. FCA: Fiat, Jeep, Maserati
   10. Ford
   11. General Motors: Cadillac
   12. Geely
   13. Genesis
   14. Great Wall
   15. Honda & Acura
   16. Hyundai
   17. Infinity
   18. Jaguar Land Rover
   19. Jeep
   20. Lexus
   21. Mercedes-Benz
   22. Mini
   23. Nissan
   24. Porsche
   25. PSA
   26. Renault & Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance
   27. SAIC
   28. Seat
   29. Skoda
   30. Subaru
   31. Tesla
   32. Toyota
   33. Volvo
   34. VW

6. Appendix (8 pages)   

1. Supporting information for other OEMs’ Automated Driving roadmap.
2. Model availability by level of automation in Europe, 2015-2025
   1. Models with Level 2-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
   2. Models with L2-Parking features in Europe up to 2021
   3. Models with Level 3-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
   4. Models with Level 4-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025

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Insights from our report: Carmakers’ Automated Driving Roadmaps 2025

Learn how carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving

• • How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities and by when? We examine OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations to introduce driving and parking features from Level 2 to Level 4 in private cars
  • Learn why leading Tier-1s are well-positioned to monetize ADAS growth with forecasts for ADAS sensors

Excerpts from our report: Top Tier-1 Suppliers’ ranking in ADAS 2020

The leading 7 ADAS Suppliers will experience average ADAS revenue growth of CAGR 21.5% between 2017 and 2020 which will lead to changes in the global Ranking-by-ADAS Revenue. What’s more, the overall ADAS-to-Automotive Revenue ratio for the major suppliers will increase. Read our report to understand how major suppliers are unlocking the new revenues from increasing fitment of ADAS features in passenger cars.

Regulation for Autonomy, V2X & Cyber Security

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what’s legal?

Automotive Cyber Security  2025: Secure Connected

Our report examines the current demand and supply status, including the regulatory status and offerings from leading companies in Automotive Cyber Security, and delivers forecasts on the development of the global Automotive Cyber Security market for passenger cars over the next decade, coupled with insightful interviews with leading cybersecurity vendors.

Table of contents

1. The status of Automated Driving deployment by Level in 2016-20

• 1. Democratization of ADAS accelerates fast but techno-economic deployment challenges of L3 persist
  2. Commercialization status of SAE Level 2
  3. The impact of AD regulation on L3 deployment

2. Carmakers’ ADAS & Automated Driving roadmap, strategy & outlook up to 2025

1. 1. Audi
   2. BMW’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set; AD outlook and roadmap
   3. Daimler: Mercedes-Benz
      1. Mercedes-Benz’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set; AD outlook
   4. Tesla
      1. Tesla’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set; AD outlook and roadmap
   5. Volvo
      1. Volvo’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set; AD outlook and roadmap

3. Rankings & market shares of ADAS component Suppliers in 2015-18 & ‘20

• 1. Ranking of suppliers by Automotive Revenue during 2015-17
  2. Ranking of suppliers by total ADAS revenue between 2015 & 2018 & Forecast up to 2020
     1. Learn which Suppliers have recorded the stronger ADAS revenue growth during 2015-17
     2. Suppliers’ Shares in combined Top-11 ADAS Revenue in 2016-17
  3. ADAS-to-Automotive Revenue in 2015-18 & 2020 for leading Suppliers

4. Leading ADAS suppliers: analysis, portfolio & key figures

1. 1. Aptiv (ex-Delphi Automotive)
      1. Aptiv’s ADAS revenues, competitive position in ADAS & outlook by 2020
   2. Bosch
      1. Bosch’s ADAS revenues, competitive position in ADAS & outlook by 2020
   3. Continental
      1. Continental’s ADAS revenues, competitive position in ADAS & outlook by 2020
   4. Magna
      1. Magna’s ADAS revenues, competitive position in ADAS & outlook by 2020

5. Regulation for Automated Driving and Cyber Security

1. 1. Autonomous Driving regulation in Europe, USA, China and Japan
   2. Automotive Cyber Security regulatory action in the USA
   3. UN regulation on Automotive Cyber Security: European Union and Japan
   4. ISO/SAE 21434: a joint standard to harmonise Automotive Cyber Security
   5. What regulatory/legal action is needed to secure Connected Cars? 

6. Automotive Cyber Security Forecast 2025

1. 1. Automotive Cyber Security Penetration Forecast 2015-2025
      1. Hardware vs software-based solutions & cybersecurity services
      2. Forecast of cost of Automotive Cyber Security solutions per vehicle
   2. Drivers of growth vs restraints & challenges for adoption
   3. Interviews with industry experts: insights from 5 buzzing startups

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Artificial Intelligence is one of the key enablers for the transition from today’s driver assistance systems to self-driving chauffeurs in private cars, ride-hailing (optimization of pricing in car-sharing, robotaxis) and other use cases of Automated-Mobility-on-Demand (AMoD), such as first / last mile mobility.

AI in Automated Driving

This report captures the maturity of Artificial Intelligent-based automotive applications for Automated Driving in private cars and shared mobility. It also provides expert insights on strategic innovation from leading companies.

Table of contents

1. Executive Summary (5 pages) 

1. 1. AI penetration in ADAS in 2018-19 by application or feature & also by geography
   2. Investment in AI in AD 2016-18 & distribution by type
   3. Company initiatives & product roadmaps 2018-20
   4. Key trends in AI-AD ecosystem:
      1. How the main challenges are being addressed?
      2. Partnerships
      3. New players

2. Today’s use cases & emerging opportunities for AI in Automated Driving (20 pages)

1. 1. AI in perception sensors for visual recognition: front-facing camera and radar
   2. Digital maps enhanced with artificial intelligence for highly automated driving
   3. AI supercomputers/Central domain controllers from leading suppliers & carmakers
   4. AI in vehicle Actuation: Features
   5. AI & machine learning in Automated Mobility on Demand (AMoD): robotaxis & micro-mobility
      1. Robotaxis
      2. Micro-mobility
   6. Intelligent Transportation Systems

3. Roadmap & Forecast (15 pages)

1. 1. Product roadmap 2018-25 from carmakers, major suppliers and innovative startups
   2. Investment data: measuring the investment gap
   3. Market penetration Forecast 2018-25
   4. Market sizing: Capturing the size of the opportunity
   5. Product Benchmarking

4. 25 Major company profiles: strategy, product portfolio & roadmap (25p)

1. 1. Carmakers
      1. Audi: AI in zFAS, empathetic concepts
      2. BMW
      3. GM & Cruise Automation
      4. Hyundai
      5. Tesla: DNN for AI chip for Full-Self Driving & robotaxis
      6. Toyota
      7. VW
   2. Major automotive suppliers
      1. APTIV
      2. Alibaba
      3. Bosch
      4. Continental
      5. HERE
      6. Mobileye
      7. NVIDIA
      8. Valeo
      9. ZF
   3. Mobility Service providers
      1. Waymo
      2. Cruise Automation
      3. Uber
   4. Startups
      1. AEye (idar lidar)
      2. AIMotive
      3. Cognata (simulation)
      4. Metawave (Warlord radar)
      5. ai
      6. ThinCI

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European carmakers will lead AD deployment over the next decade

The vehicle automation mix of the European passenger car market will change significantly over the next decade due to the proliferation of Automated Driving Systems (ADS) for higher vehicle autonomy. The commercialization of Conditionally & Fully-Unsupervised driving has the potential to improve road safety, convenience and productivity.

Europe presents a favourable environment for the introduction and adoption of higher autonomy given the leadership of European brands in the Advanced Driver Assistance market, government support and developed road infrastructure. However, the regulatory, legal and insurance framework still need to evolve to support fully autonomous cars.

2018 is the year of data validation for Level 3 features

November 2017 saw the launch of the first-ever Level 3 capable car, Audi’s A8 equipped with the AI Traffic Jam Pilot, but Audi’s system has not been activated yet due to data validation requirements and other regulatory hurdles. After the completion of the necessary data collection and validation, activation of Level 3 is expected to occur by mid-2018 via SOTA.

Deployment of Conditional-Automation (SAE L3) in Europe in 2018 will be achieved using exemptions from the regulatory framework

Europe, continues to be a favourable environment for SAE L3 deployment, gaining significant government support in leading markets, especially in the UK and Germany. However, Type Approval of L3 is not allowed yet, as with the rest of UN-ECE, while only Germany legally allows “eyes-off” (in L3). As a result, OEMs will seek exemptions to deploy Level 3 in the EU under the (EU) Article 20; but this exemption does not apply to other UN-ECE counterparties, e.g. South America and Asia, effectively restraining L3 deployment.

Models offering Partial-Automation (SAE Level 2) for Driving and Parking will more than double in 2018

Volume carmakers launch Self-Parking and Remote-Parking capabilities for the first time in Europe in 2018. At the same time, Top-Premium brands, which already offer L2-Parking features, will expand functionality across their models.

Table of contents

Chapter 1: European AD roadmap: Driving features, L2-D to L4-D, 2015-25 

1. Deployment of Autonomous Driving in the European market in 2018: what to expect
2. ADAS & AD Roadmap of 36 leading brands in Europe 2015-25
3. European car sales forecast by Levels of Automation for Driving features 2015-2025
4. Market shares in European car sales by level of automation 2015-25: Driving features
5. OEM market shares in European car sales by AD level: 2021 vs 2025
6. Partial automation European forecast up to 2025: from low-speed, single-lane Traffic Jam Assists to multi-lane, high-speed Cruise Assist systems
   1. Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) vs Cruise Assist (CA) shares forecast 2015-2025
7. Level 3 European forecast: up to 2025
   1. Carmaker strategies, sensor set and validation for Level 3
   2. L3-D sales forecast in Europe 2018-2025
   3. Traffic Jam Pilot (TJP) vs Highway Pilot (HP) shares forecast 2015-25
8. L4-Full automation in European passenger cars over the next decade
   1. L4 in robo-taxis (fixed routes) vs private ownership

Chapter 2: European AD roadmap: Parking features, L2-P to L4-P, 2015-21

1. European car sales forecast by Levels of Automation for Parking features 2015-2021
2. Market shares in European car sales by level of automation 2015-25: Parking features
3. OEM market shares in European car sales of AD-Parking features in 2021
4. Trends in L2-P to L4-P European forecast until 2021

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Autonomous Driving Regulations and the Legal framework still need to evolve to allow higher vehicle autonomy

As the automotive and technology industries race to higher vehicle autonomy the regulatory barrier becomes a determinant of their commercialization strategies. The first-ever SAE Level 3-automated driving system in Audi’s flagship A8 has already been announced but customer availability is subject to regional regulatory approval across the world.

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems will allow the shift from Supervised driving to Conditionally & Completely-Unsupervised driving.

There is a growing concern over the lack of harmonisation of AD regulation 

However, there are inherent differences between the regulatory and legal framework across Europe, the USA and China. This could adversely affect harmonisation of common standards and also delay the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.

What is the impact of regulation on the deployment strategies of carmakers?

Cyber Security is the new frontier for Automated and Connected Cars

Connected Car security needs to expand from its Physical dimension to cover the Cyber-Physical dimension and from the In-Vehicle-Network to the Internet-of-Things.

While recent “white hack” demonstrations have raised awareness of the risk the automotive industry faces amid the proliferation of Connected Cars, connected devices and V2X, the slow progress of regulation and the absence of common standards restrict adoption of ACS solutions.

Standardisation of the medium for V2V-V2I (DSRC vs cellular) restricts deployment

Even though V2V-V2I communications are not a technical prerequisite for Level 3 or higher, they can enhance safety by helping to overcome the limitations of on-board ADAS sensors, e.g. line-of-sight, weather conditions.

The industry-wide adoption of DSRC vs cellular V2X, which is associated with cost, robustness and financial viability, together with the spectrum-sharing decisions present the key technical challenges for V2V-V2I deployment in key geographies.

What this report delivers

This report focuses on regulation covering Conditionally (Level 3) & Completely-Unsupervised driving (Level 4-5) with or without driver controls, which are in the epicenter of regulatory developments because they will allow (limited to specific use cases or full) hands-off the steering wheel, eyes-off and eventually brain-off.

Furthermore, our analysis, provides a regulatory guide for some other rising issues relevant to Automated Driving, namely securing Automated and Connected Cars, V2X (V2V-V2I) communications and the impact on motor insurance.

Check Out our Latest Whitepaper on V2X regulation Download

Check Out our Latest Whitepaper on V2X regulation Download

Table of contents

Executive summary

1. Key findings
2. Overview of regulations and legals by key category examined in this report

1. Autonomous Driving regulation for SAE Lv.3 systems (33 pages)

1. AD regulation: the gap between current and future tech vs regulation
2. Inherent differences in regulatory process & race to autonomy raise concerns over the lack of harmonization of AD regulation
3. How does regulation affect deployment? Favorable geographies for L3 deployment
4. UNECE: The amendment of UN R79 vs a Horizontal regulation
   1. The amendment of the 1968 Vienna Convention on Road Traffic
   2. The amendment of UN R79 is the critical step towards self-steering systems that will unlock Level 3-4 deployment
   3. Automated Lane Keeping Systems (ALKS) regulation for Lv.3
   4. Three concerns arising from the R79’s amendment
   5. European Autonomous Driving Forecast: L1-L4 car sales up to 2025
5. Germany to lead AD deployment in Europe driven by supportive AD framework
   1. L3 automated driving to become legal in Germany from autumn’17
   2. Review of Germany’s AD Ethical Guidelines
6. Great opportunities for the UK to compete as a global hub of AD innovation, testing and deployment
   1. Overview of the UK’s AD regulatory activity
7. Flexible AD regulatory framework in USA but concerns over safety enforcement and harmonisation
   1. L3 deployment strategy in the U.S based on the regulatory landscape
   2. The USA has opened up the road to L3-5 with voluntary guidelines: ADS Vision for Safety-v2
   3. Assessment of USA AD policy: Guidelines (voluntary) vs Regulation (mandatory)
   4. Action to harmonise state law: LEAD’R Act & SELF-DRIVE Act
8. China’s regulation for Intelligent and Connected Vehicles (ICVs)
   1. Status of AD regulation in China & roadmap for ICV standards
   2. Concerns over the regulatory action needed in China
9. Japan’s AD regulatory status
10. Summary of AD regulatory developments in other leading markets
    1. Europe
    2. Asia, Asia-Pacific & North and South America

2. Active Safety Regulation for ADAS Lv.1-2 & NCAP Lv.2 Rating (4 pages)

1. The problem with driver distraction, confusion or misuse because of ADAS UX/UI
2. UN GSRII mandates Active Safety equipment to tackle driver distraction
3. EuroNCAP’s 2020 rating for Highway Assist / Lv.2 features

3. Data recording and liability in SAE Level 3 (4 pages)

1. Learn why we need Automated Driving-Event Data Recorders
2. Regulatory guidance on data recording and storage for L3 is immature
3. L3 vehicle automation presents challenges & opportunities for the insurance value chain

4. Automotive Cyber Security regulation in major car markets (12 pages)  

1. The absence of regulatory mandates restricts the timely adoption and standardization of Automotive Cyber Security solutions
2. Automotive Cyber Security regulatory action in the USA
3. UN regulation on Automotive Cyber Security: European Union and Japan
4. ISO/SAE 21434: a joint standard to harmonise Auto Cyber Security
5. What regulatory/legal action is needed to secure Connected Cars?

5. V2X (V2V-V2I) regulation (11 pages)

1. How could V2V and V2I communications help towards road safety?
2. V2V isn’t a technical prerequisite for HAVs but can enhance their safety
3. State of the art: V2V & V2I already on the road today
4. V2V-V2I regulatory roadmap: UN, USA and China
5. Security and privacy in DSRC-based V2V and V2I
6. Insights on the regulatory activity for V2X with CTO of Autotalks
   1. V2X deployment status raises concerns over the lack of harmonization
   2. Learn how regulatory guidance for V2X will evolve in major markets
   3. Weighting in the debate between DSRC / ITS-G5 and C-V2X
   4. Understand which V2X-supported features will come to market first
   5. Winners from the installation of V2X sensors & infrastructure

6. Regulation for Artificial Intelligence in Automotive (2 pages)     

1. European Commission’s first attempt to regulate “high risk” AI applications

This report is part of our Autonomous, Intelligent & Secure car portfolio of reports. For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or using Contact us form

Safety regulation is a major driver for the V2X market given its influence in the technology medium, so that all vehicles speak the “same language”, and the associated infrastructure.

With ITS-G5 (DSRC in the US) deployment and crucial supporting infrastructure being in their infancy, but substantial investment already scheduled for the coming years, today is a critical time for the harmonisation of V2X solutions across carmakers and leading geographies in order to take advantage of their safety benefits.

Key findings:

• Regulation, cost and investment to determine which V2X medium will win
  • Not realistic to have both technologies in the car in terms of cost and spectrum efficiency;
  • Voluntary deployment has started but ITS-G5 / DSRC vs Cellular camps could delay standardisation

• Lack of harmonisation of V2X regulation among major car markets
  • NHTSA’s NPRM for FMVSS 150 provides clear regulatory guidance for DSRC being the recommended technology for V2V communications for Light Vehicles from Sep’20;
  • Apart from NHTSA’s activities for the mandate, we see infrastructure activity in the U.S. which provides an immediate value for drivers. There is no need to wait for the creation of the V2V network;
  • European deployment based on voluntary fitment today whereas substantial investment in ITS-G5 infrastructure is in progress;
  • Europe’s net neutrality principle allows both competing technologies, even as a “hybrid system”, but investment in ITS-G5 infrastructure and VW’s strategy will likely shift the scale towards ITS-G5 (DSRC in the US);
  • China invest in 5G and will set V2V standards circa 2018;
  • Toyota plays major role in Japan;

• V2X features to mitigate accidents in intersection and left-turn urban scenarios
  • First-day applications with strong potential: “Left-Turn Assist”, “Intersection Movement Assistance”, Incoming Motorcycle Alert” and “Platooning” for Commercial vehicles

Contents

1. V2X deployment status raises concerns over the lack of harmonization
2. Learn how regulatory guidance for V2X will evolve in major markets
3. Weighting in the debate between DSRC / ITS-G5 and C-V2X
4. Understand which V2X-supported features will come to market first
5. Winners from the installation of V2X sensors & infrastructure

Check Out our Latest Whitepaper on V2X regulation Download

Check Out our Latest Whitepaper on V2X regulation Download

For a technical overview of 802.11p vs LTE-V2V in terms of performance, cost, services and maturity read a whitepaper that was co-authored by Mr. Haran here.

What our report delivers

For more information on V2X regulation and how it relates to developments for Automated and Secure Connected Cars check our report Regulatory guide to Autonomous Driving, Automotive Cyber Security & V2X.

• Understand the differences between the way Autonomous Driving regulation works in Europe, the U.S.A and China and how this affects the introduction of SAE Level 3 systems;
• Learn what deployment strategies carmakers will use to introduce higher autonomy based on the current regulatory and legal framework in major car markets;
• Benchmark key geographies based on the opportunities regulation presents for testing and deployment of SAE L3-5;
• Read about the challenges that deployment of Level 3 Traffic Jam Pilot systems faces in Europe and how the amendment of UN Regulation No.79 is progressing;
• Get an update on the status of regulation, standards and initiatives for Automotive Cyber Security;
• See how V2V regulatory activity is progressing relative to market deployment.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or using Contact us form