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European Autonomous Driving Forecast up to 2025 by Driving & Parking

Higher vehicle automation promises to improve vehicle safety, driver convenience and eventually revolutionize mobility with Europe being at the forefront of developments. This report examines the AD roadmap of 36 leading brands to provide a forecast of the deployment of SAE Level 2 to Level 4 features in Europe until 2025, segmented into features for Driving & Parking.

L4-5 concepts


European carmakers will lead AD deployment over the next decade

The vehicle automation mix of the European passenger car market will change significantly over the next decade due to the proliferation of Automated Driving Systems (ADS) for higher vehicle autonomy. The commercialization of Conditionally & Fully-Unsupervised driving has the potential to improve road safety, convenience and productivity.

Europe presents a favourable environment for the introduction and adoption of higher autonomy given the leadership of European brands in the Advanced Driver Assistance market, government support and developed road infrastructure. However, the regulatory, legal and insurance framework still need to evolve to support fully autonomous cars.

2018 is the year of data validation for Level 3 features

November 2017 saw the launch of the first-ever Level 3 capable car, Audi’s A8 equipped with the AI Traffic Jam Pilot, but Audi’s system has not been activated yet due to data validation requirements and other regulatory hurdles. After the completion of the necessary data collection and validation, activation of Level 3 is expected to occur by mid-2018 via SOTA.

Deployment of Conditional-Automation (SAE L3) in Europe in 2018 will be achieved using exemptions from the regulatory framework

Europe, continues to be a favourable environment for SAE L3 deployment, gaining significant government support in leading markets, especially in the UK and Germany. However, Type Approval of L3 is not allowed yet, as with the rest of UN-ECE, while only Germany legally allows “eyes-off” (in L3). As a result, OEMs will seek exemptions to deploy Level 3 in the EU under the (EU) Article 20; but this exemption does not apply to other UN-ECE counterparties, e.g. South America and Asia, effectively restraining L3 deployment.


L2-D & L2-P, 2017


Models offering Partial-Automation (SAE Level 2) for Driving and Parking will more than double in 2018

Volume carmakers launch Self-Parking and Remote-Parking capabilities for the first time in Europe in 2018. At the same time, Top-Premium brands, which already offer L2-Parking features, will expand functionality across their models.




Table of contents

Chapter 1: European AD roadmap: Driving features, L2-D to L4-D, 2015-25 

  1. Deployment of Autonomous Driving in the European market in 2018: what to expect
  2. ADAS & AD Roadmap of 36 leading brands in Europe 2015-25
  3. European car sales forecast by Levels of Automation for Driving features 2015-2025
  4. Market shares in European car sales by level of automation 2015-25: Driving features
  5. OEM market shares in European car sales by AD level: 2021 vs 2025
  6. Partial automation European forecast up to 2025: from low-speed, single-lane Traffic Jam Assists to multi-lane, high-speed Cruise Assist systems
    1. Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) vs Cruise Assist (CA) shares forecast 2015-2025
  7. Level 3 European forecast: up to 2025
    1. Carmaker strategies, sensor set and validation for Level 3
    2. L3-D sales forecast in Europe 2018-2025
    3. Traffic Jam Pilot (TJP) vs Highway Pilot (HP) shares forecast 2015-25
  8. L4-Full automation in European passenger cars over the next decade
    1. L4 in robo-taxis (fixed routes) vs private ownership

Chapter 2: European AD roadmap: Parking features, L2-P to L4-P, 2015-21

  1. European car sales forecast by Levels of Automation for Parking features 2015-2021
  2. Market shares in European car sales by level of automation 2015-25: Parking features
  3. OEM market shares in European car sales of AD-Parking features in 2021
  4. Trends in L2-P to L4-P European forecast until 2021

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