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European Autonomous Driving Forecast up to 2025 by Driving & Parking

£1,899 | Buy now  Higher vehicle automation promises to improve vehicle safety, driver convenience and eventually revolutionize mobility with Europe being at the forefront of developments. This report examines the AD roadmap of 36 leading brands to provide a forecast of the deployment of SAE Level 2 to Level 4 features in Europe until 2025, segmented into features for Driving & Parking.

European autonomous driving forecast

 


Our European Autonomous Driving forecast finds that European carmakers will lead the race in Autonomous Driving deployment over the next decade

The vehicle automation mix of the European passenger car market will change significantly over the next decade due to the proliferation of Automated Driving Systems (ADS) for higher vehicle autonomy. The commercialization of Conditionally & Fully-Unsupervised driving has the potential to improve road safety, convenience, and productivity.

Europe presents a favorable environment for the introduction and adoption of higher autonomy given the leadership of European brands in the Advanced Driver Assistance market, government support, and developed road infrastructure. However, the regulatory, legal, and insurance framework still need to evolve to support fully autonomous cars.

2018 was the year of data validation for Level 3 features but 2021 is the year of deployment 

November 2017 saw the launch of the first-ever Level 3 capable car, Audi’s A8 equipped with the AI Traffic Jam Pilot, but Audi’s system has not been activated yet due to data validation requirements and other regulatory hurdles. After the completion of the necessary data collection and validation, activation of Level 3 is expected to occur by mid-2018 via SOTA.

Deployment of Conditional-Automation (SAE L3) in Europe will come in 2021 since carmakers did not take advantage of exemptions from the regulatory framework since 2018

Europe, continues to be a favourable environment for SAE L3 deployment, gaining significant government support in leading markets, especially in the UK and Germany. However, Type Approval of L3 is not allowed yet, as with the rest of UN-ECE, while only Germany legally allows “eyes-off” (in L3). As a result, OEMs will seek exemptions to deploy Level 3 in the EU under the (EU) Article 20; but this exemption does not apply to other UN-ECE counterparties, e.g. South America and Asia, effectively restraining L3 deployment.

Volvo is skipping Level 3 automated driving as unsafe

Mar’17 saw Volvo’s CEO announcing that the company will skip Level 3 mainly because the handover of vehicle control to driver in case of emergency is deemed unsafe. Instead, the company will only offer (completely) unsupervised autonomous mode when it’s safe, for which it will assume full responsibility. Whereas Volvo characterises that mode as L4, no uniform definitions exist (although SAE’s definitions are widely accepted), therefore it’s still unclear if Volvo’s Intellisafe offerings will be a true L4.

As a reminder, Audi has also promised to be liable when its L3 is in active mode. Mercedes has expressed a similar approach, at least as long as it can guarantee the “best or nothing” moto. Thus, it’s expected the updated version of its (Level 2) Drive Pilot in the upcoming flagship S-Class will also be marketed as an Assistive Level 2 system, even though its capabilities could probably support Level 3.

 


 

European autonomous driving forecast


 

Models offering Partial-Automation (SAE Level 2) for Driving and Parking will more than double in 2018

Volume carmakers launch Self-Parking and Remote-Parking capabilities for the first time in Europe in 2018. At the same time, Top-Premium brands, which already offer L2-Parking features, will expand functionality across their models.

Leading ADAS suppliers are forming supply chain partnerships with carmakers and Tier 2s, such as Magna-Mobileye.

 

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Table of contents

Chapter 1: European Autonomous Driving roadmap: Driving features, L2-D to L4-D, 2015-25 

  1. Deployment of Autonomous Driving in the European market in 2018: what to expect
  2. ADAS & AD Roadmap of 36 leading brands in Europe 2015-25
  3. European car sales forecast by Levels of Automation for Driving features 2015-2025
  4. Market shares in European car sales by level of automation 2015-25: Driving features
  5. OEM market shares in European car sales by AD level: 2021 vs 2025
  6. Partial automation European forecast up to 2025: from low-speed, single-lane Traffic Jam Assists to multi-lane, high-speed Cruise Assist systems
    1. Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) vs Cruise Assist (CA) shares forecast 2015-2025
  7. Level 3 European forecast: up to 2025
    1. Carmaker strategies, sensor set and validation for Level 3
    2. L3-D sales forecast in Europe 2018-2025
    3. Traffic Jam Pilot (TJP) vs Highway Pilot (HP) shares forecast 2015-25
  8. L4-Full automation in European passenger cars over the next decade
    1. L4 in robo-taxis (fixed routes) vs private ownership

Chapter 2: European AD roadmap: Parking features, L2-P to L4-P, 2015-21

  1. European car sales forecast by Levels of Automation for Parking features 2015-2021
  2. Market shares in European car sales by level of automation 2015-25: Parking features
  3. OEM market shares in European car sales of AD-Parking features in 2021
  4. Trends in L2-P to L4-P European forecast until 2021

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