30 Carmakers’ roadmaps in Automated Driving by 2025
This report examines the current status of autonomous vehicle deployment including the ADAS&AD portfolio of 30 leading brands, the engineering and regulatory challenges for high levels of autonomy and the business models to overcome them. Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.
2019 saw the introduction of LEVEL 3 technology that allows drivers to take their “eyes-off” the road under specific conditions
Technologically, 2017 was the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (Level 3) with Audi becoming the first to introduce a L3-Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval. This means that the introduction of ”eyes-off-the road” technology could be delayed to end of 2019 / early 2020.
In Level 3, the driver can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’.
But the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the takeover request.
Today, Tesla’s Navigate on Autopilot is the only Level 3 system on the market as L3 deployment is still subject to regional regulatory approval in Europe, Japan and China – USA follows a different regulatory framework. The differences in regulatory and legal framework across leading car markets could result in lack of harmonization and requirements for design variants which could adversely impact manufacturers of Automated Driving Systems as well as the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.
Partially automated (L2) model offerings expand to the compact segment
At the same time, more carmakers are introducing L2 parking and driving capabilities and expand L2 feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment.
This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements and competition drive fitment of ADAS.
New entrants compete for a share in the new mobility era
Carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, such as tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo) and MNOs compete in the autonomous vehicle race to establish a winning portfolio or just remain competitive.
However, many of the engineering, regulatory/legal and ethical challenges for deployment of higher levels of autonomy remain unresolved.
Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but harmonization will be a challenge
The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what’s legal?
What is the status of AD regulation in Europe and the U.S? What is the impact on L3 deployment?
Which geography presents the most favourable environment for deployment of Level 3?
Clear guidance on the safe and secure development, testing and deployment of AV technologies is necessary as well as harmonisation of homologation standards or vehicle certification in order to comply with safety standards.
A higher level of automation requires augmented sensor set, architecture and enhanced robustness
A Mobileye executive has recently described the challenge and complexity of launching SAE L4, i.e. Highly-autonomous cars which are equipped with chauffeur driving and valet parking features among others, with putting a man on the moon.
Further development in machine learning is required in the area of maps and image processing, to improve object recognition and subsequently decision-making in split-second timeframe. Tesla and Ford have announced developments in this area together with some leading Tier-1s.
How are carmakers forging their HW and SW portfolio to enable L3 and higher levels of automation?
How will this affect the mobility ecosystem and the supply chain?
New business models arise in the new era of smart mobility
The approval of L3 will allow greater utilisation of the time spent inside the car. As a result, new business models arise to monetise the new opportunities, e.g. in automotive insurance and in-vehicle infotainment. L4/fully-automated vehicles will revolutionise transportation and mobility leading to what we call Intelligent Mobility.
What this report delivers
This report focuses on leading car manufacturers’ ADAS&AD portfolio, strategies and business models to transition towards full automation and self-driving cars. Moreover, it examines the regulatory landscape and other technical challenges and their implications on deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy.
Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.
- Learn about the status of vehicle automation between 2016 and 2019:
- What is the availability of key ADAS features, such as AEB, TSR, ACC, LKA, TJA, in leading carmakers in Europe, US and China? We provide in depth segmentation by SAE Level;
- What is the penetration rate of SAE Level 0, 1 and 2 in European car sales?
- Which OEMs lead L2 deployment in 2017-19 and why?
- What changes in 2019-20 in terms of deployment of L2 and L3?
- Understand the regulatory and engineering challenges carmakers face for the deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy:
- What is the status of Autonomous Driving regulation in major car markets?
- What are the differences in the legal and regulatory framework in Europe and the United States and how this will affect L3-5 deployment?
- Which geography presents the most favorable environment for deployment of Level 3?
- What breakthroughs are required in the area of SW/HW and validation for L3-4?
- Read how carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving
- How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities and when?
- OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations
- Learn why leading Tier-1s are well positioned to monetize ADAS growth
- Who will lead and who will follow in the autonomous vehicle race until 2025?
- Discover when leading carmakers will launch capabilities of L2, L3, L4 and L5 segmented into Driving (L2-TJA vs L3-TJP) and Parking features (e.g. L2-Self Park, L4-Valet Parking)
- What are the trends by ADAS levels in Top Premium OEMs’ model range during 2016-25?
- Learn about the penetration of different levels of autonomy in European car sales in 2021
- Benchmark competition: strengths and weaknesses of ADAS&AD product portfolio, suppliers and competitiveness
Table of contents
1. The status of Autonomous Driving deployment in 2016-20 (21 pages)
- The democratization of driver assistance systems accelerates fast but techno-economic deployment challenges persist
- Regulation is delaying the transition to “conditional eyes-off the road”
- Germany’s competitive advantage hindered by slow Level 3 regulatory update
- Availability of Partially-automated models almost doubled in 2018
- Level 2 features expand across carlines reaching the compact segment
- ADAS content is increasing to bridge the technological gap for higher autonomy
- Commercialization status of SAE Level 2 in Europe 2016-20: TJA, SP and RP availability in leading OEMs
- L2-D status in Europe in 2016-20: Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) availability
- Comparison of L2-D tech: speeds, lane change, hands-on detection, stop-in-lane, and naming strategy
- L2-P status in Europe 2016-20: Self-park & Remote Parking availability
- L2 penetration in European car sales in 2016-20
- L2 OEM ranking in 2017 vs 2018: leaders & followers
- SAE Level 1 status in Europe in 2016-19: ACC, AEB CUI, PA & LKA availability in OEMs
- Level 0 penetration in Europe in 2016-19: BSM, DDM, FCW, LDW, and TSR
- Marketing names for ADAS L0/L1 features in Top-6 Premium OEMs
- Major Automated Driving & AMoD pilots in 2019-20: who tests what and where
- The implications of Level 3-Conditionally automated driving to HMI
2. Regulatory, engineering and other challenges for the deployment of L3-L4 (17 pages)
- Read why regulation challenges Autonomous Driving deployment
- Overview of AD regulatory & legal status in key geographies in 2018-19
- The amendment of Reg.79-Steering equipment will allow L3 deployment in Europe
- Today ADAS are assistive and hands-on the wheel are always required
- Reg.79 amendment is the critical step towards self-steering systems
- Three concerns arising from the UNECE Reg.79’s amendment
- The USA has opened up the road to HAVs with the FAVP
- State of AV testing in the United States in 2016/17
- Concern over U.S Federal Autonomous Vehicle Policy
- L3 automated driving to become legal in Germany from autumn 2017
- The impact of AD regulation on L3 deployment
- Technical challenges for deployment and other key factors affecting AD adoption
- Liability in L3 and the role of Event Data Recorders for AD
- Vehicle Cybersecurity becomes a top priority for carmakers
- OEM and regulatory activity heats-up in major car markets
- What is needed to secure Connected Cars
3. OEM-Tier 1 strategies to commercialize Autonomous Driving (9 pages)
- Incremental vs skip approach to reach Highly automated driving
- Building your own ADS platform vs collaboration
- Consortiums for L3-5 platforms, AMoD and HD maps
- Learn why leading ADAS Suppliers are well positioned to monetise ADAS growth
- Digitalisation unlocks personalisation & new mobility services
- Use cases and business models to commercialise L4/5
- Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)
4. From Assisted to Autonomous: L2-L4 roadmap from leading OEMs (22 pages)
- Overview of L2-L4 Driving and Parking roadmap by OEM at earliest implementation
- Automated Driving technology roadmap: key ADAS features and sensor set
- The differences in roadmaps between L4 in passenger cars vs robotaxis
- Aggregate sales forecast by L2-D to L4-Driving features in Europe, USA, China 2013-2025
- Aggregate Level 2-Driving forecast in EU, USA and China between 2013 & 2025
- Aggregate Level 3-Driving equipped car sales forecast up to 2025
- Learn which geographies will lead Level 3 deployment
- Aggregate sales of cars & LVs equipped with Level 4-Driving systems by 2025
- European Automated Driving forecast up to 2025: Driving vs Parking features
- European AD roadmap for driving features: L2-D to L4-D
- Market shares of European car sales by level of automation during 2015-2025
- The impact of EuroNCAP’s 2025 roadmap
- Partial automation (L2-D) forecast in European car sales 2013-25
- Conditional automation (L3-D) forecast in European car sales 2018-25
- European L4-D sales forecast 2018-25
- European AD roadmap for parking features: L2-P to L4-P
- USA Automated Driving forecast for Driving features up to 2025
- USA LV sales & penetration by Level 2 to L4 Driving features, 2013 and 2025
- USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L2-D features between 2013 & 2025
- USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L3-D features by 2025
- USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L4-D features between 2013 & 2025
- China Automated Driving Forecast: L2-D to L4-Driving features 2013-2021
- Lidar forecast up to 2030 in passenger cars
5. ADAS&AD portfolio & roadmap by leading OEM (48 pages)
- ADAS feature availability in model range and sensor set
- Automated Driving outlook: product roadmap and model range by AD level 2016-2025
- Alfa Romeo
- FCA: Fiat, Jeep, Maserati
- General Motors: Cadillac
- Great Wall
- Honda & Acura
- Jaguar Land Rover
- Renault & Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance
6. Appendix (8 pages)
- Supporting information for other OEMs’ Automated Driving roadmap.
- Model availability by level of automation in Europe, 2015-2025
- Models with Level 2-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
- Models with L2-Parking features in Europe up to 2021
- Models with Level 3-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
- Models with Level 4-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
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