30 Carmakers’ roadmaps in Automated Driving by 2025

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  • Publication date: Updated in Q3 2021
  • Number of pages: 154
  • Number of tables and graphs: 163 (52+111)
  • Word count: 50,261
  • SAMPLE PAGES are available upon request

Description

This report examines the current status of the levels of vehicle automation until 2025 (SAE Level 0-Level 4). It also provides a roadmap for Automated Driving deployment for 35 major OEMs in Europe, the USA, Japan and China.

Automated driving roadmap

2021 will see the introduction of Lv.3 technology that allows “eyes-off” the road

 In June 2020, regulators announced that the UNECE regulation Automated Lane Keeping Systems will come into force from Jan’21 allowing the deployment of Level 3 in signatory countries.

Technologically, 2017 was the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (L3), with Audi becoming the first to introduce an Lv.3-Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval and incomplete data validation.

Level 3 systems can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’. But the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the takeover request.

Deployment of Level 3-AD is still subject to regional regulatory approval. What’s more, the regulatory and legal framework differs across leading car markets. This could result in a lack of harmonisation and require design variation, adversely impacting the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.

Lv.2-Driving availability in Europe reached 91 models in 2019 as Volume brands join in

The number of models offering Partially-automated driving capabilities in Europe, as standard or optional equipment, rose with CAGR 71% over the last 5 years to reach 73 in 2018.

Carmakers are gradually offering higher-speed functionality by expanding Cruise Assist (CA) offerings across their model range. Moreover, the number of models offering L2-Parking reached 18 in 2018, of which 13 offered Self & Remote Parkin

Partially-automated (SAE Level 2) model offerings expand to the compact segment

At the same time, more carmakers are introducing Level 2 parking & driving capabilities and expand feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment. This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements and competition drive the fitment of ADAS.

Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but standardisation will be a challenge

 The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment of international regulations as well as national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what’s legal and what’s not?

What is the status of AD regulation in Europe and the U.S? What is the impact on L3 deployment? Which geography presents the most favourable environment for deployment of Level 3?

Clear guidance on the safe and secure development, testing and deployment of AV technologies is necessary as well as harmonisation of homologation standards or vehicle certification in order to comply with safety standards.

Table of Contents

  1. STATUS OF AUTOMATED DRIVING DEPLOYMENT BY LEVEL IN 2020

1.1. Democratization of ADAS accelerates fast to meet safety mandates but techno-economic deployment challenges  of Level 3 still persist

1.1.1. Regulation is delaying “conditional eyes-off the road’’ in signatories of UNECE regulation N.79 until 2021 giving an advantage to the USA

1.1.2. Germany’s attempt to gain a competitive advantage hindered by a slow regulatory update for Level 3 deployment

1.1.3. Level 2 model availability in Europe quadrable between 2016 & 2020

1.1.4. L2-D is expanding across carlines reaching the compact segment

1.1.5. ADAS content is increasing to meet safety regulatory mandates and bridge the technological gap for higher levels of autonomy

1.2. SAE Level 2 status in Europe 2016-20: TJA, SP & RP availability (%)

1.2.1. L2-D status in Europe in 2016-20: Traffic Jam Assist availability

1.2.2. Comparison of L2-D technology: speeds, lane change, hands-on detection, stop-in-lane, and naming strategy

1.2.3. Eurocamp’s 2020 rating of Highway Assist / SAE Lv.2 features

1.2.4. L2-P in Europe 2016-19: Self-Park & Remote Parking availability

1.2.5. Level 2 penetration in European car sales in 2016-18

1.2.6. Level 2 OEM ranking in 2017 vs 2018: leaders and followers

1.3. SAE Level 1 in Europe 2016-18: ACC, AEB, PA, & LKA availability

1.4. Level 0 penetration in Europe 2016: BSM, DDM, FCW, LDW & TSR

1.4.1. Marketing names for ADAS L0/L1 features in Top-6 Premium OEMs

1.5. Level 3 testing/pilots: who tests what and where

1.6. The implications of Conditionally-automated driving on HMI

 

  1. STATUS OF AUTOMATED DRIVING DEPLOYMENT BY LEVEL IN 2020

2.1. Read why regulation challenges Autonomous Driving deployment

2.2. Overview of AD regulatory & legal status in key geographics

2.3. The amendment of Reg.79 will allow L3 in UNECE from Jan 2021

2.3.1. ADAS are assistive and hands-on the wheel is always required

2.3.2. Reg.79 amendment is the critical step towards self-steering systems

2.3.3. Three concerns arising from the Reg.79’s amendment

2.3.4. Automated Lane Keeping System (ALKS) Regulation for Lv3

2.3.5. The USA has opened up the road to HAVs with guidelines

2.3.6. State of AV testing in the United States up to end of 2020

2.3.7. Concerns over U.S policy on Automated Driving Systems

2.3.8. L3 automated driving legal in Germany from autumn’17

2.3.9. The impact of AD regulation on L3 deployment

2.3.10. Technical challenges for deployment affecting AD adoption

2.4. Liability in L3 and the role of Event Data Recorders for AD

2.5. Vehicle Cybersecurity becomes a priority for carmakers

2.5.1. OEM and regulatory activity heats up in major car markets

2.5.2. What regulatory/legal action is needed to secure Connected Cars?

 

  1. OEM STRATEGIES & BUSINESS MODELS IN AUTOMATED DRIVING

3.1. Incremental vs skip approach to reach Highly-automated driving

3.2. Build your own Automated Driving platform vs collaboration

3.2.1. Consortiums for L3-5 platforms, AMoD and HD maps

3.2.2. Why ADAS Suppliers are well positioned to monetize ADAS growth

3.3. Digitalisation unlocks personalisation & new mobility services

3.4. Use cases and business models to commercialise L4/5

3.5. Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)

 

  1. FROM ASSISTED TO AUTONOMOUS: L2-L4 ROADMAP FROM LEADING OEMS

4.1. Overview of L2-L4 Driving & Parking roadmap by OEM at earliest implementation

4.2 .Automated Driving technology roadmap: ADAS feature & sensor set

4.3. Aggregate sales forecast by L2-D to L4-Driving features in EU, USA, China between 2013 & 2025.

4.3.1. Aggregate L2-D car & LV sales forecast in EU, USA & China 2013-25

4.3.2. Learn which geographies will lead Level 3 deployment

4.3.3. Aggregate Level 3-Driving equipped car sales forecast up to 2025

4.3.4. Aggregate sales of cars & LV with L4-Driving features by 2025

4.4. European AD forecast up to 2025: Driving vs Parking features

4.4.1. European AD roadmap for driving features: L2-D to L4-D

4.4.2. The impact of EuroNCAP’s 2025 roadmap

4.4.3. Market shares in Europe’s car sales by level of automation 2015-25

4.4.4. Partial automation (L2-D) forecast in Europe 2013-25

4.4.5. Conditional automation (L3-D) forecast in Europe 2018-25

4.4.6. L4-Driving forecast in European car sales 2018-25

4.4.7. European AD roadmap for parking features up to ‘21: L2-P to L4-P

4.4.8. Market shares of OEMs by Level of Automated Driving in Europe: L2-Driving, L3-D & L4

4.5. USA Autonomous Driving Forecast for Driving features up to 2025

4.5.1. USA LV Sales & Penetration by L2-D to L4-D between 2013 & 2025

4.5.2. USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales for L2-Driving features 2013-25

4.5.3. USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L3-Driving features by 2025

4.5.4. USA forecast of LV sales with L4-Driving features by 2025

4.6. China Automated Driving Forecast: L2-D to L4-D 2013 to 2021

4.7. Lidar forecast up to 2030 in passenger cars

 

  1. CARMAKER ADAS & AUTOMATED DRIVING ROADMAP & OUTLOOK

5.1. Audi

5.1.1. Audi’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set

5.1.2. Audi’s AD outlook: feature roadmap & model range by AD level

5.2. BAIC Motors

5.3. Bentley

5.4. BMW Group

5.4.1. BMW’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set

5.4.2. BMW’s AD outlook: model range by AD level & feature roadmap

5.4.3. Mini with Level 2-Driving since 2018 and Level 3-Driving in 2025

5.5. BYD

5.6. CHANGAN

5.7. Daimler: Mercedes-Benz

5.7.1. ADAS feature availability in their model range, Europe

5.7.2. Mercedes-Benz’s AD outlook: feature roadmap & AD level mix

5.8. FCA: Focus on Alfa Romeo, Fiat, Maserati & Jeep

5.8.1. Alfa Romeo’s roadmap to Level 4

5.9. Ford

5.10. Geely

5.11. General Motors: Cadillac and Chevy-Cruise

5.12. Great Wall

5.13. GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP (GAC)

5.14. Honda

5.15. Hyundai, KIA and Genesis

5.15.1. Hyundai’s vision for Automated Driving

5.16. Jaguar Land Rover

5.16.1. JLR’s AD outlook: feature roadmap & AD level mix

5.17. Porsche

5.18. PSA

5.19. Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance

5.19.1. Nissan & Infiniti

5.19.2. Renault

5.20. SAIC

5.21. Subaru

5.22. Tesla Motors

5.22.1. Tesla’s ADAS portfolio and feature availability in model range

5.22.2. Tesla’s strategy to reach L4 with emphasis on vision

5.23. Toyota Motors: Lexus and Toyota

5.23.1. Toyota’s Automated Driving roadmap

5.24. Volvo

5.24.1. Volvo ADAS fitment: L2 in Europe offered as standard

5.24.2. Volvo’s AD outlook: model range by ADAS level

5.25. VW & VW Group

5.25.1. VW’s strategy & model range by Level of Automated Driving

 

  1. Appendix

6.1. Model availability by level of automation in Europe, 2015-2025

6.1.1. Models with Level 2-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025

6.1.2. Models with Level 2-Parking features in Europe, 2015-2025

6.1.3. Models with Level 3-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025

6.1.4. Models with Level 4 features in Europe, 2015-2025