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Level 4 Full Autonomy Global Forecast 2040


  • Slides: 66
  • Publication: October 2021
  • SAMPLE PAGES are available upon request


By 2030, carmakers will have launched Level 4 Automated Driving

This report focuses on leading car manufacturers’ ADAS and Automated Driving portfolio, strategies and business models to transition towards full automation and self-driving cars.

We provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of Lv.2-4 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy until 2025. Moreover, it examines the regulatory landscape and other technical challenges and their implications on the deployment of a higher level of vehicle autonomy.

  1. Rankings and Market shares by ADAS Component Revenue in 2015-2020 (€);
  2. Competitive assessment & outlook for 2020;
  3. Market shares of ADAS Suppliers in sales of
  4. Radar, camera and Lidar in Europe in 2020.

Over the next 5 years, “Connected Collaborative Driving” rather than automated driving will be prevalent

Today, drivers enjoy longitudinal and/or lateral driving assistance (SAE Level 0-2) in both parking and cruising scenarios.

Conditional eyes-of-the-road (Level 3) is not permitted by regulation and traffic laws in Europe and China which has delayed or changed carmakers’ strategies. Geo-fenced L4 in Automated-Mobility-on-Demand was launched in 2019 by Waymo but deployment in private cars follows a different roadmap.

We assess Lv.0-to-L2+ account for 99% of new car sales across 4 major car markets in 2020 and c.85% by 2025 respectively showcasing the opportunity in driver assistance systems to be the predominant solution for the next decade. Take rate driven primarily by regulation and NCAP;

Suppliers are well-positioned to monetise the strong demand for ADAS components

The Top8 Suppliers recorded automotive revenue of €250.2 in 2019. The leading 11 ADAS Suppliers will experience average ADAS revenue growth of CAGR 21.2% between 2018 and 2020 which will lead to changes in the global Ranking-by-ADAS Revenue. Our report examines the portfolio, strategy and roadmap of leading ADAS Suppliers.

We examine APTIV, Bosch, Continental, Denso, Hella, Hitachi, Magna, Mobileye, Valeo, Veoneer, Zenuity and ZF

ADAS revenue to rise with CAGR 12.6% between 2020 and 2025 to reach €35Bn incl. revenues from components, systems and environmental models

Cyber Security is the new frontier for Automated Driving and Connected Cars

Connected Car security needs to expand to cover the Cyber-Physical dimension & from In-Vehicle- Network to the IoT.

Collaboration among carmakers and other stakeholders is crucial and the recent demonstrations of collaboration among auto OEMs, such as the Auto-ISAC, shows positive signs.

But carmakers are worried about recording and sharing the massive amounts of data required for automated driving and this could restrain information sharing for cybersecurity as well as Automated Driving.

Reducing hackers’ incentives to attack a vehicle is paramount. Currently, there is a 10-year sentence and $50,000 fine for anyone who tampers with the computer system of a driverless vehicle that results in injury.

The Michigan Senate unanimously passed a pair of bills that would increase the penalty to life in prison if the interference with the computer system resulted in death. The law wouldn’t apply to auto manufacturers or licensed mechanics.

This report provides insights from 5 buzzing startups:

  1. Argus Cyber Security,
  2. Arilou Technologies,
  3. Karamba Security,
  4. and Trillium;

‘‘OEMs mostly aim at having cyber security solutions in their future units – it’s not something that they are looking to integrate in existing units’’

CEO Arilou Technologies

Table of Contents

1. Level 4 Automated Driving Forecast & Roadmaps 

  1. Automated Driving Market status 2020 vs. 2040
  2. ADAS sensor penetration
  3. From Assisted to Autonomous: L2-L4 roadmaps
    1. L2-L4 Driving & Parking roadmap by OEM at earliest implementation
    2. Automated Driving technology roadmap: ADAS feature & sensor set
    3. The differences in roadmaps between L4 in private cars vs robotaxis
    4. Aggregate sales forecast by L2-D to L4-Driving in EU, USA, China 2013-2040
    5. Aggregate L2-D car & LV sales forecast in EU, USA & China 2040
    6. Aggregate Level 3-Driving equipped car sales forecast
  4. Learn which geographies will lead Level 3 deployment
  5. Aggregate sales of cars & LV with L4-Driving features by 2040
  6. European AD forecast up to 2025: Driving vs Parking features
    1. European AD roadmap for driving features: L2-D to L4-D
    2. Market shares in Europe’s car sales by level of automation
    3. Partial automation (L2-D) forecast in Europe 2040
    4. Conditional automation (L3-D) forecast in Europe 2040
    5. L4-Driving forecast in European car sales 2040
    6. European AD roadmap for parking features up to ‘21: L2-P to L4-P
    7. Market shares of OEMs in Europe: L2-Driving, L3-D & L4
  7. USA Autonomous Driving Forecast for Driving features
    1. USA LV Sales & Penetration by L2-D to L4-D
    2. USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales for L2-Driving
    3. USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L3-Driving features
    4. USA forecast of LV sales with L4-Driving features
  8. China Automated Driving Forecast: L2-D to L4-D
  9. Lidar forecast up to 2030 in passenger cars

2.Carmaker AD strategies

3. Top Tier-1 Suppliers in ADAS

  • ADAS revenue 2030
  • Shares in radar, camera
    1. APTIV,
    2. Bosch,
    3. Continental,
    4. Denso,
    5. Hella
    6. Magna,
    7. Mobileye,
    8. Hitachi
    9. Valeo
    10. Veoneer
    11. ZF

4. Regulation for Autonomy, V2X & Cyber Security

  • Regulatory roadblocks to L3-4 in major markets

5. Automotive Cyber Security: Secure Connected