Asides

Drivers to legally take their “eyes-off” the road from 2017-Autonomous Driving Roadmap report

Learn about leading OEMs’ ADAS & Autonomous Driving roadmap and strategies

Auto2x’s latest report examines the current status of autonomous vehicle deployment including the ADAS&AD portfolio of 24 leading OEMs, the engineering and regulatory challenges for high levels of autonomy and the business models to overcome and monetise them. Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.

CADILLAC supercruiseRead about our key findings:

2017 will see the introduction of technology that allows “eyes-off” the road

2017 is the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS providing assistance for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (L3) which can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’. However, in L3 the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the
takeover request.

Level 3 deployment is still subject to regional regulatory approval. What’s more, the regulatory and legal framework differs across leading car markets. This could result in lack of harmonisation and restrict standardisation, adversely impacting the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.

Germany legalises Level 3 automated driving giving a head-start to German carmakers

Germany wants to be in the forefront of Autonomous driving (testing and deployment) ahead of the U.S. therefore it has amended the German Road Traffic Act (Straßenverkehrsgesetz, StVG) to allow domestic car manufacturers, which already are closer to L3, to deploy their systems in the market. Deployment of L3 in Germany would be possible under the new framework, but also provided that systems are compliant with UNECE regulations and data recording for accident reconstruction and claims.

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistences between what’s legal?

The removal of the front passenger seat allows for full forward vision creating a uniquely spacious environment.

Another OEM skips L3 as the debate for Conditionally-Unsupervised driving continues

Volvo is now added to the list of carmakers pulling away from deployment of Level 3 with the CEO characterizing the handover of vehicle control as unsafe. The company claims they will only offer (completely) unsupervised autonomous mode when it’s safe, for which it will assume full responsibility. This comes a few months away from the first-ever L3-equipped car from Audi.

Different OEM strategies over Supervised vs Conditionally and Completely-Unsupervised driving

This development is another demonstration of the different approaches leading car manufacturers are following to commercialize automated driving amid the engineering, regulatory and consumer adoption hurdles.

The industry is currently facing a debate over supervised (L0-2) vs (optionally) unsupervised driving (L4-5) and whether an intermediate” level (L3), where the system can monitor but drivers have to takeover in case of an emergency is safe and adds value to owners. Thus, the commercialisation of L3 is uncertain given the high cost/benefit ratio, i.e. the marginal impact on safety and driver convenience from L2 comparing to the massive engineering challenge.

Partially-automated (L2) model offerings expand to the compact segment

At the same time, more carmakers are introducing L2 parking and driving capabilities and expand L2 feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment. This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements and competition drive fitment of ADAS.

l2 2015-17

Aggressive marketing contributes to customer confusion and leads to misuse and/or abuse of L2

L2’s purpose is to assist the driver but not substitute him by offering longitudinal and lateral assistance. L2 Traffic Jam Assists and Cruise Assists may allow a few seconds of hands-free driving
but do not have the system capability and redundancy to monitor the road-hence your hands-on-the steering- wheel are mandatory (from both technological and legal perspective) despite what you here from some aggressive marketing campaigns.

Engineering challenges to drive demand for sensors, SW and collaborations

A Mobileye executive has recently described the challenge and complexity of launching SAE L4, i.e. chauffer driving and valet parking features among others, with putting a man on the moon. Higher level of vehicle automation will require augmented sensor set, new architecture and innovative validation methods among others.

This will drive demand for sensors, supercomputers, high precision
maps etc. It will also drive further collaboration between OEMs and Tier 1s-2s for the development of AD platforms-be it L4 for car sharing or not.

New business models arise in the new era of smart mobility

Carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, such as tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo) and MNOs compete in the autonomous vehicle race to establish a winning portfolio or just remain competitive.

L4/fully-automated vehicles will revolutionise transportation and mobility leading to what we call Intelligent Mobility. This includes the rising car-sharing and ride-sharing businesses as well as new
vehicle ownership models in the Passenger Car market. We analyse opportunities across the supply chain.

For a detailed Table of Contents or Sample Pages contact us on: (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com or visit auto2xtech.com.

Germany legalises L3 automated driving technology that allows “eyes-off” the road

  • Current ADAS Level 2 systems assist but do not substitute the driver, i.e. provide longitudinal and lateral assistance enabling some limited hands-off driving but drivers must always be in control -due to regulation and system capabilities
  • Level 3 systems, enabling the car to take control of the driving and monitoring task, will hit the road this year but are subject to regulatory approval
  • Amendment of the German Road Traffic Act opens up the road for L3 in Germany but compliance with EU law is also required

Germany wants to be in the forefront of Autonomous driving (testing and deployment) ahead of the U.S. therefore it has amended the German Road Traffic Act (Straßenverkehrsgesetz, StVG) to allow domestic car manufacturers, which already are closer to L3, to deploy their systems in the market.

In April, the Bundestag, the lower house of the German parliament, approved the version therefore the only part missing for the amendment of the StVG to come into force was approval from the upper chamber of the German parliament, the Bundesrat. This came in May 12th, earlier than initially expected, removing the regulatory barrier for Audi who plans to deliver the first-ever L3 Traffic Jam Pilot in its updated version of the flagship A8.

Level 3 (SAE) vehicle automation represents a milestone in Autonomous Driving because when these features are active they can take over the monitoring task, together with the driving task, enabling drivers to take their “eyes-off” the road. But the driver must always be available to takeover, since he/she are the ultimate back-up. In case the driver is incapacitated and unable to take back control, adequate robustness must be in place to bring the vehicle into a safe stop, initially in lane.

To learn how Level 3 changes the driving task and how carmakers plan to get there read our post: Volvo to skip Level 3.

Today, even the most innovative ADAS systems for driving and parking, such as Mercedes’s Drive Pilot, Tesla’s Autopilot and BMW’s Remote Control Parking are classified under SAE’s definition as Level 2-Assistive. This means, that they can assist but cannot substitute the driver who must always be in control.

Figure: Volvo’s L3 Intellisafe Autopilot allows hands-off and eyes-off (Source: Volvo)Volvo_Autonomous_driving

L3-Conditional automation to be legal in Germany from Sep’17 requiring EDRs-AD and compliance with UN-EU regs

Initially, this legislation was expected to pass Parliament before federal elections in September 2017, a timeline that aligns with the introduction of the L3-Traffic Jam Pilot from Audi in the 2018MY A8. However, the approval occurred earlier than expected demonstrating the German government’s willingness to promote the domestic market as the leader in Automated Driving which promises a zero-road death future and to unlock time for drivers to focus on other tasks beside driving while commuting.

The amendment of national traffic laws, together with the amendment of international Reg.79 which is expected to come into force by Oct’18, will open up the road for “hands-off and eyes-off” L3 (but not L4 yet). However, many issues remain open with the most important being what exactly will drivers be allowed to do in L3 and the specifications of data recording and sharing capabilities for Event Data Recorders (EDR) which will assist in determining liability when an accident occurs while the L3 system was driving.

Deployment of L3 in Germany would be possible under the new framework, but also provided that systems are compliant with UNECE regulations (e.g. Reg.79 or an exemption is granted) and EDRs (for L3) are fitted for accident reconstruction and claims.

EDR requirements for L3 are immature yet, with more information is expected to come before the finalisation of the law. Minimum requirements from the German draft law include recording of lateral control, system active status, and handover requests for accident reconstruction and insurance claims. Data must be available to relevant road traffic authorities upon request, as well as to any third party. From conversations with Tier 1s, we understand that EDRs for TJP are probably developed in-house by other OEMs rather than in collaboration with suppliers.

Audi to get a head start, other leading premium German OEMs and Tesla to follow

This gives an advantage to Audi since the brand’s launch date for L3-TJP with the new 2018MY A8 is in line with the law coming into force in Sep’17. Audi’s system will probably be categorised as ACSF B2 but we expect the brand to use EU’s Article 20 to get an exemption for the new technology.

Figure: Audi L3 Piloted Driving (Source: Audi)Audi TJP

We expect that other German-based OEMs which are technologically closer to L3 will also benefit, with BMW and Mercedes-Benz being the obvious candidates. Tesla will also benefit since it claims that it is close to L3 (Self-driving functionality). However, the company has been asked by the German government to change its Autopilot naming to avoid customer confusion and misuse/abuse.

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy

The problem arises from the fact that vehicle regulation and national traffic laws have been developed with the driver in mind, i.e. driver in control. From a technological perspective, we have now reached the point where in certain markets the amendment of regulation is needed to allow Automated Driving Systems to take conditional and eventually full control of the driving task and monitoring of the road.

At the same time, national traffic laws might need to change to accommodate the new driving conditions, e.g. allow the complete absence of driving controls for L4/L5 or driver for L5. Amendments are in progress, to allow the driver to be ‘’out of the loop’’.

But will there be regional inconsistences between what’s legal given that the regulatory landscape in the U.S is different than the rest of the world’s major car markets?

To read more about Autonomous Driving regulation check our report Roadmap to Self-Driving Cars. For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or using Contact us form

BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla were the only brands already capable of Level 2 Driving and Parking in 2016-Free whitepaper

Partially-automated model availability more than doubled in 2016

The number of models offering Partially-automated driving capabilities (L2-D) as standard or optional equipment rose by 144.4% in 2016 to 22 models, from just 9 in 2015. Growth was primarily driven by European automakers’ strategy to expand Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) offerings across their model range.

Models with L2-D+P in 2016-17

German car manufactures hold the lion’s share in Level 2-Driving feature offerings

What is more, the number of models offering Self-Parking (SP) capabilities tripled in 2016 amounting to 6 models, whereas those equipped with Remote Parking (RP) doubled to 4. Still though, capability of both L2 driving and parking (L2-D+P) is concentrated in a handful of premium brands’ models. In detail, only 3 car manufacturers, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla, offered 6 models equipped with TJA and SP as standard or optional equipment in 2016, of which only 4 also offered RP.

bmw self-driving

Some of our key findings for the availability of L2 in Europe in 2016:

  • Partially-automated model availability more than doubled in 2016
  • Audi, BMW and Mercedes are expanding their offerings of Level 2 Automated Driving across carlines but more importantly, TJA (L2) has now reached the compact car segment and volume OEMs including VW and Nissan.
  • 2017 will see the introduction of technology that allows conditional “eyes-off” the road

Regulatory, engineering and other challenges for L3-5 deployment

Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but standardisation will be a challenge 2016 saw a shift in the focus of regulation from approval of L3/4 testing to discussion for reforms to enable deployment of L3 in public roads. We expect regulatory action to continue stronger in 2017 as key car markets boost their efforts to lead the AV global scene but also guarantee safe and secure deployment.

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment of international regulations as well as national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies?

Download our free whitepaper for more insights on ADAS&AD offerings in Europe here: https://auto2xtech.com/go/adlpfreep1/

For further information about our consulting service please contact us on info@auto2xtech.com, (+44) (0) 203 286 4562 or visit auto2xtech.com.

Volvo to skip Level 3 autonomous mode

Volvo is now added to the list of carmakers pulling-away from deployment of Level 3 automated driving (at least for now) with the CEO characterizing the handover of vehicle control as unsafe.

This comes a few months away from the first-ever L3-equipped car from Audi which will conditionally allow drivers to take their eyes-off the road at low speeds and perform some side tasks but requires them to always be available to takeover within a few seconds. Volvo argues that this handover of control is unsafe and will only offer (completely) unsupervised autonomous mode when it’s safe, for which it will assume full responsibility.

bmw self-driving

Debate over supervised vs unsupervised driving modes-is an intermediate one a good idea?

Earlier, Ford and Google have also expressed a similar philosophy, with the latter basing its approach on the fact that intermediate levels were subject to abuse and/or misuse. More recently, Mercedes has expressed a similar approach, at least as long as it can guarantee the “best or nothing” moto. Thus, it’s expected the updated version of its (Level 2) Drive Pilot in the upcoming flagship S-Class will also be marketed as an Assistive Level 2 system, even though its capabilities could probably support Level 3.

Another key issue is that the deployment of an immature technology for the sake of remaining competitive could have continuous disengagements thus spoiling the driving experience and ruining customer attractiveness.

This development is another demonstration of the different approaches leading car manufacturers are following to commercialize automated driving amid the engineering, regulatory and consumer adoption hurdles. The industry is currently facing a debate over supervised (L0-2) vs (optionally) unsupervised driving (L4-5) and whether an “intermediate” level (L3), where the system can monitor but drivers have to takeover in case of an emergency is safe and adds value to owners.

2017 is the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (L3) which can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’

L3 driving, 070417

What’s coming up from leading carmakers

Volvo will start testing its geo-fenced L4 Intellisafe technology using real families this year in Sweden with the Drive Me project, collecting data on system performance as well as feedback of driver acceptance of what will now be an “unsupervised” driving experience.

Mercedes-Benz is also collecting data for it’s automated driving technology in a project in Australia.

Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot, which is equipped with an augmented sensor set and Tesla Vision – the proprietary image processing after the split with Mobileye- has almost reached feature parity with the original Autopilot (L0-2) with Musk promising Self-driving capabilities within the year.

Audi is expected to launch the new A8 in Germany, where the legal framework is currently being amended to allow L3, together with certain states in the Americas where the regulatory framework allows it. The feature is expected to initially run in the background until validation and verification is completed.

It’s up to the Germans now to prove that handover of vehicle control can be done safely, intuitively, without disrupting user experience, and that drivers will exploit the conditional eyes-off the road Traffic Jam Assist offers. If the outcome is successful, this head start will be crucial and determine the approach other carmakers follow to commercialise autonomous driving. It will also provide evidence to other key car markets to amend their legal and regulatory framework to allow conditional automation.

To read more about the strategies leading carmakers follow to unlock higher levels of automated driving check our report Roadmap to Self-Driving Cars. For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or using Contact us form

Demand for Hybrids drives growth of Alternatively-Fuelled Vehicle sales in Western Europe in 2016

London, February 1st, 2017

Electrification and hybridisation of Western European powertrains continued in 2016 with total sales of AFV rising by 6.7% comparing to 2015 reaching just over 600,000 units. However, AFV penetration in Western European car sales remained at 4.5%, the same level as in 2015, according to data published by the ACEA.

Key findings:

  • Total sales of Alternatively-Fuelled Vehicles (AFV) in Western Europe (EU-28+EFTA) rose by 6.7% in 2016, driven by +28.8% growth in Hybrids
  • AFV sales amounted to 686,820 or 4.5% of Western Europe car sales in 2016; same as in 2015
  • Strong demand in hybrids (HEVs, +28.8%), PHEVs (+17.2%) and lower for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs, +2.9%) compensated for the drop in sales of LPG+NGV+E85, (-19.6%) and Extended Range EVs+Fuel Cell EVs, (-23.0%).
  • HEVs accounted for 44% of AFV sales, followed by LPG+NGV+E85 with 26% and BEVs with 13%.
  • Italy leads AFV sales’ volume but the UK is the leader in Western Europe by sales’ volume of PHEV, Other ECV and HEVs
  • Norway leads AFV penetration with more than 10 times the W.Europe penetration

Cap1ture

Italy leads AFV sales’ volume but Norway leads AFV penetration with 10x the W.Europe

Capt3ureRenault remained the BEV leader in Europe

ZOE heads the electric passenger car ranking with 21,735 registrations (up 16%) and Kangoo Z.E. the electric light commercial vehicle market with 3,901 vehicles sold, according to the brand.

1280px-Geneva_MotorShow_2013_-_Renault_Zoe_chargingChina remains the world’s largest EV market followed by the U.S.

Data for Chinese BEV and PHEV until Oct’16 from CAAM, China’s automotive association, show sales Jan-Oct sales of 258,000 and 79,000 units respectively. This gives the global EV lead in China with 337,000 ”new energy vehicles” and penetration in new car sales of 1.8%.

In the U.S, EV sales amounted to 159,139 in 2016, up 37.1% from the year before. Tesla led the U.S. EV market with Model S ranking 1st and Model X 3rd with 29,400 and 18,223 units respectively, according to data from insideevs.

BMW to offer 9 electrified models in 2017, up from 7 in 2016

Full-year sales of BMW electrified vehicles topped 62,000 in 2016, with the figures growing strongly through the year as more models were added to the line-up. The BMW Group now offers a total of seven electrified vehicles, the broadest range of any manufacturer. With the addition of the BMW 5 Series and the MINI Countryman plug-in hybrids in the coming months, the BMW Group will have nine electrified vehicles in its portfolio and is targeting electrified sales of 100,000 units in 2017.

New product launches from Jaguar and Mercedes-Benz

Mercedes plans to launch a new generation of electrified cars under the EQ brand starting with the Generation EQ, a high-riding SUV is planned to go into production in 2019. The German brand targets at least ten electric vehicles to wear the new badge by 2025 to compete with existing competition such as Tesla’s Model S and X, as well as the recently announced Jaguar I-Pace expected by late 2018, Audi’s e-tron and the much-anticipated Tesla Model 3.

Generation EQ, Exterieur
Generation EQ, Exterieur

 

For more information on this electric vehicle sales check our report on Automotive Powertrains.

To request a full Table of Contents please contact us on: (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com or visit auto2xtech.com

Concern about car hacking has grown but industry response remains weak, says Security Innovation’s survey

Security is a safety issue and a top priority for the USDOT but is it also for OEMs and other stakeholders?

NHTSA’s recent guidelines about vehicle cybersecurity urge stakeholders to make security an organisational priority and adopt existing guidance (standards from SAE, Auto-ISAC) among others.

The regulatory action follows recent ”white hacker” demostrations of security weaknesses in modern cars -with Tesla being the latest ”victim” – and concern that as vehicle connectivity, automation and V2V communication progresses a succesful malicious attack could have catastrophic consequences.

Security Innovation’s survey identifies gap 

A cybersecurity survey of more than 500 automotive professionals from OEMs and suppliers sponsored by Security Innovation and
INTEGRITY Security Services indicates that a gap exists in securing Connected Cars.

Half of the 500 automotive OEM and suppliers’ professionals surveyed in Security Innovation’s latest Vehicle Cybersecurity study believe that ”hackers are actively targeting automobiles but only 54% of respondents agree that security is a priority for their company. This puts the automotive near the bottom of those industries who put security as a priority with financial at the top”.

Another finding was that ”the lack of skilled personnel and requirements, and pressure to meet release dates are the main
impediments to secure software development”.

Check their whitepaper here: https://lnkd.in/dq7263e

Automotive Cyber Security is becoming a top priority for OEMs but lack of regulation and standardisation restricts security adoption, Auto2x 

Auto2x is concerced that while carmakers strive to roll out more and more Connected Cars and models equipped with Advanced
Driver Assistance Systems in an attempt to gain competitive advantage and enhance costumer-loyalty, cybersecurity remains an afterthough.

Read why Auto2x believes that Automotive cyber security and privacy is the new frontier for Connected Cars: https://lnkd.in/dkScaEg

To learn more about the status of Automotive Cyber Security regulation and what solutions leading companies offer to secure Connected Cars see our report:

Automotive Cyber Security Market Forecast 2015-2025: the secure Connected Car (https://auto2xtech.com/articles/automotive-cyber-security-the-connected-car-forecast-2015-2025/)

About Auto2x

Auto2x is a London-based automotive consultancy that offers business intelligence reports and custom research to carmakers, Tier 1s and other key stakeholders.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or using Contact us form

Vehicle Cybersecurity a key part of USDOT’s Federal Autonomous Vehicle Policy

Identification, protection, detection, response and recovery functions should be in place, DOT says

usdot-favp

September 20th saw the USDOT announcing voluntary federal guidelines for Highly Automated Vehicles (HAVs) to promote safe and secure AV testing and deployment across the country. The voluntary guidance signals DOT’s intention not to mandate AV rules but to work with OEMs and other companies developing autonomous driving technology.

Status of AV regulation in the U.S: testing and deployment

The United States offer a favourable environment for AV testing and deployment- North America was the first region to introduce legislation to permit testing of automated vehicles. No federal regulatory framework is present as states were responsible for deciding whether or not to approve AV testing.

What is more, a self-certification process applies in the US, i.e. OEMs need to make sure that their vehicles and standard vehicle equipment comply with all relevant FMVSSs NHTSA issues.

Key findings from FAVP

Amid the absence of federal AV regulation and inconsistencies between state-level testing and deployment Autonomous Vehicle regulations NHTSA’s Vehicle Performance Guidance provides an outline for best practices for anyone seeking to manufacture, design, test, use or sell automated vehicles or vehicle automation equipment in the United States. The guidance focuses on highly automated vehicles (HAVs=SAE L3/L4/L5) and applies to light, medium and heavy vehicles, whether developed for testing or production.

  1. Voluntary guidelines for HAVs instead of regulation to avoid lengthy regulatory process (4-8 years) and enable updatability (annually) and relevance
  2. Guidance is not mandatory but the consensus is that NHTSA will make the VGP elements mandatory, similar to a FAA type approval. USDOT’s chief announced yesterday that the next U.S. president will formalise the AV rules
  3. USDOT wants L2 and HAV manufacturers to voluntarily submit the 15-point Safety Assessment for testing and deployment: (meet / not meet guidance / Not applicable). This ‘’Pre-market approval for testing and deployment’’ of HAVs marks a significant change to NHTSA’s current regulatory regime of “self-certification” with all FMVSSs, post-fitment
  4. The change from self-certification process to pre-testing and pre-deployment approval, as well as the large amount of data recording and sharing required, have been met with criticism from the auto industry as it could drastically slow down the rollout of driverless cars
  5. The policy has immediate effect apart from data and information collection. Comments are expected until November 22

IMG_0558

Vehicle Cybersecurity

”Manufacturers and other entities should follow a robust product development process based on a systems-engineering approach to minimize risks to safety, including those due to cybersecurity threats and vulnerabilities. This process should include systematic and ongoing safety risk assessment for the HAV system, the overall vehicle design into which it is being integrated, and when applicable, the broader transportation ecosystem. The identification, protection, detection, response, and recovery functions should be used to enable risk management decisions, address risks and threats, and enable quick response to and learning from cybersecurity events.

Identification, protection, detection, response, and recovery functions

While this is an evolving area and more research is necessary before proposing a regulatory standard, entities are encouraged to design their HAV systems following established best practices for cyber physical vehicle systems. In particular, entities should consider and incorporate guidance, best practices, and design principles published by National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), NHTSA, SAE International, the Alliance of Automobile Manufacturers, the Association of Global Automakers, the Automotive Information Sharing and Analysis Center (ISAC) and other relevant organizations.

The entire process of incorporating cybersecurity considerations should be fully documented and all actions, changes, design choices, analyses, associated testing and data should be traceable within a robust document version control environment.

As with safety data, industry sharing on cybersecurity is important. Each industry member should not have to experience the same cyber vulnerabilities in order to learn from them. That is the purpose of the Auto-ISAC, to promote group learning. To that end entities should report any and all discovered vulnerabilities from field incidents, internal testing, or external security research to the Auto-ISAC as soon as possible, regardless of membership. Entities involved with HAVs should consider adopting a vulnerability disclosure policy.”

What happens next

Although most of the guidance is effective immediately, NHTSA has invited public comment for 60 days at www.transportation.gov/AV. Today, DOT’s chief said that the next president would formalize self-drive rules into a mandate.

These developments reaffirm our position that Automotive Cyber Security is now a top priority for carmakers, as well as regulators, because of its implications on physical safety, the carmakers’ whole business and the transition towards more automated vehicles.

Collaborative, proactive Automotive Cyber Security is paramount, but is it realistic?

Although we view any collaborative, industry-wide agreement as a step forward, we approach this development with scepticism because of the degree of effectiveness when relying in voluntary agreements in an industry characterised by the lack of collaboration among OEMs.

Carmakers disagree on the effectiveness of a mandate, with some arguing that industry-wide cybersecurity guidelines and practices would be more appropriate to mitigate real-life malicious cyber-attacks than a government regulation in terms of speed of action and relevance.

But in our view, mandatory fitment of robust software and/or hardware solutions together with industry-wide standards and certification of peripheral devices can reduce organised crime’s incentives to attack cars as their probability of success and their gain from infiltrating car security will decrease significantly.

To get a better understanding of how global Car Cybersecurity regulation evolves and its implications for leading players read in our report Automotive Cyber Security Market Forecast: the secure Connected Car.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or using Contact us form

Regulatory framework for autonomous driving gets one step closer

The update on the amendment of UN Reg.79 is a first step towards self-steering systems for automated driving

Automated driving today: what is legal and what’s not

Partially-automated vehicles capable of both Level 2 driving and parking are already on the road today but concentrated in a handful of premium brands’ models. In detail, only 3 car manufacturers, all them premium ones, offer both L2 driving and parking (L2-D+P) features today. That is BMW, with L2-D+P introduced with its flagship 2017MY 7-Series, Mercedes-Benz with the 2017MY E-Class, and finally Tesla with the Model S and Model X respectively.

Audi, with its 2017MY Q7 and 2017MY A4, offers L2-Driving but only L1-Parking similar to Volvo’s 2017MY XC90 and the upcoming 2017MY S90.

Level 2 driving and parking is already here and Level 3 features will hit the market in mid-2017

The 1968 Vienna Convention on Road Traffic and the Regulation No.79-steering equipment are the most relevant regulations regarding autonomous driving. L2 driving (e.g. LKA, TJA, etc.) and parking features (e.g. Tesla’s self-parking) are legal due to exemptions in steering Regulation No.79. The Vienna Convention, whose amendment came into effect on April 23, 2016 is not restrictive for many countries e.g. the UK is not a signatory.

IMG_0623

Level 3 is not legal in Europe and going beyond partial automation (that is still permanently monitored by the driver) would require a new approach to legal framework in road traffic: Otherwise drivers would be breaching their legal obligations.

What is Reg.No 79 and what makes it so important for Automated Driving?

UN-ECE Regulation No.79 contains requirements for the steering configuration of M, N and O category vehicles and it is an obstacle to highly and fully automated driving (L3-onwards) because it currently limits automatic steering functions to driving conditions below 12km/h.

However, provisions of Reg.79 allow:

  • auto steering control (without the driver being in the steering loop) at low speeds (<12 km/h) which allow today’s park-assist systems or in other words hands-free parking
  • steering assistance (with the driver in the loop) only for a limited time, to maintain the basic desired course or to influence the vehicle’s dynamic behaviour. This provision is currently used by car manufacturers to allow approval of LKA, ACC and other L1 ADAS.

The Tesla fatality has changed the direction of the Reg.79 amendment

However, some OEMs have been using these provisions to get approval for L2 systems (equivalent to Traffic Jam Assist). Following the Tesla fatality, the counterparties were even considering prohibiting L2 automated steering at all but it has been decided that using this provision will not be possible once the first stage of the amendment comes into force.

Amendment

The amendement process is in progress. In detail, 23rd Sep saw technical provisions for automated driving being adopted by experts (GRRF) as a first step towards the introduction of self-steering systems.

The group defined 5 categories of automation corresponding to the functionalities that the vehicle will be able to perform and adopted performance requirements for the first 2 levels of automation defined by SAE International.

reg79-proposed-categories

The proposed amendment sub-divides ACSF into five
categories between A for functions that operate up to 10 km/h and E which can operate up to a maximum speed of 130 km/h. These relate to systems that, under specific driving circumstances, will take over the control of the vehicle under the permanent supervision of the driver, such as self-parking functions and Lane Keeping Assist Systems (e.g. when the car will take corrective measures if it detects that it is about to cross a lane accidentally).

They also entail removing the current limitation of automatic steering functions to driving conditions below 10km/h contained in UN Regulation No. 79.

Timeline of amendment  

The contracting parties are taking a 3 step approach:

  1. Stage-1 will see CSF and ACSF categories A and B1 coming into force by Jan’18
  2. Stage 2 (ESF, ACSF C) and 3 (ACSF B2, D, and E) by Oct’18

Once adopted by the World Forum at one of its forthcoming meetings (WP.29), these provisions will be integrated into UN vehicle Regulation No.79 and then in most European countries where Reg.79 is binding.

3 concerns arising from the regulatory amendment

The first problem arises from the fact that given the current timeline getting approval of SAE/BASt-Level 3 in Europe will probably not be possible before Jan’18 or Oct’18.

Second, the Reg.79 amendment will only allow approval of up to L3.

Third, being a Steering regulation, Reg.79 does not cover what the driver is allowed and not allowed to do in L3. Amendment of national traffic laws is required in this direction to allow driver distraction under specific scenarios.

To learn more about automated Driving Regulation, including OEMs’ roadmap to self-driving cars, read our report: Roadmap to Self-Driving cars: status, roadmap and strategy

To request a full Table of Contents contact us: (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com or visit auto2xtech.com

New JV in Automotive Cyber Security: VW-CyMotive Technologies

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Security is at the forefront of OEMs’ agenda as vulnerabilities and car hacks in Connected Cars are real and imminent. What is more, with Level 3 automation expected to hit the road next summer and V2V on the agenda, carmakers need expertise to protect the vehicles’ augmented attack vector.

In this direction, Volkswagen and Israeli start-up CyMotive Technologies formed a Joint Venture to develop automotive cyber security solutions that would protect Connected and Autonomous cars from malicious attacks. CYMOTIVE Technologies is a newly founded company based in Herzliya, Israel and led by Yuval Diskin, Tsafrir Kats and Dr Tamir Bechor.

The news come almost one month after two UK-based computer experts revealed that over 100 million cars sold by Volkswagen since 1995 are susceptible to hacking due to security flaws in keyless entry systems.

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Volkswagen will own 40% stake while the Herzliya-based partners 60% and will be working exclusively with VW for the foreseeable future but with a view to target more OEMs at some point.

“It is a long-term investment in cyber security to make vehicles and their ecosystem more secure” Volkswagen’s Head of Electrical and Electronic Development Dr Volkmar Tanneberger commented.

Auto2x believes that this development confirms Israel’s status as a leading hub in Automotive Cyber Security as many Israeli start-ups are have been in the epicentre of investment, M&A and partnerships in this segment. In the beginning of the year, Argus Cyber Security announced a partnership with Check Point and earlier with Magna. In late 2015, TowerSec and RedBend were acquired by Harman. Finally, this summer, Karamba Security launched its CarWall software.

‘’The expansion of the vehicle’s attack surface means that many OEMs will have to rely more on automotive cyber security companies with expertise in this field, since most Tier-1s’ expertise is also limited. The outcome will be the formation of new partnerships, M&A and further investment in the Automotive Cyber Security market.’’

Georgios Stathousis, Auto2x

To find out who are the leading suppliers of software, hardware solutions and services in Connected Car Security and a competitive assessment of their portfolio read our report Automotive Cyber Security Market Forecast: the secure Connected Car.

Suppliers’ latest activity to monetise growth in ADAS-AV

Investment, funding and product introduction in radar, vision, LiDAR, maps and software for ADAS-AV

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Substantial investment, funding and product introduction from LiDAR suppliers

LiDAR is a key technology for autonomous driving, object recognition and accident prevention that major OEMs, such as Ford, and Tier1s, e.g. Delphi are relying on to achieve L3/4 automation. Tesla on the other hand is not.

Its cost, a significant barrier of commercialisation today, is expected to drop significantly from the $70-80,000 Velodyne LiDAR unit which featured on top of Google’s self-driving car. Given the massive potential for LiDAR demand in the future, several automotive suppliers are trying to develop a LIDAR portfolio.

Velodyne, Quanergy and LeddarTech are at the forefront of commercializing LiDAR technology beyond pilots to actual deployment.

In detail, in August Quanergy raised $90 Million from investors, including Delphi, achieving a post-funding valuation of $1.59 billion. Quanergy’s solid-state LiDAR, which would cost around $200-250 each when it hits the market in 2018, would bring the LiDAR cost per vehicle to less than $1,000, and constitutes an integral component into Delphi’s plan to deliver autonomous driving by 2019.

On the other hand, Velodyne announced the completion of a combined $150 million investment from Ford and Baidu to expand the design and production of its technology and enable mass adoption of AD. The company has a new version of its LiDAR sensor called Puck Hi-Res.

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LeddarTech, which offers low price level Leddar for both ADAS and AV, introduced a new Leddar platform for autonomous driving sensor technology.

Finally, ZF acquired a 40% stake in the Hamburg-based company Ibeo Automotive Systems GmbH, a leader in lidar with several global OEMs as customers.

Software

On the software side for AV, Delphi and Mobileye announced a partnership to develop Level 4/5 automation available for production by 2019. Delphi will incorporate Autonomous Driving software algorithms whereas Mobileye will focus on sensors and signal processing.

Radar

Denso agreed with Fujitsu and Toyota to increase its stake in Fujitsu Ten from 10% to 51% to push for better self-driving car sensors.

Fujitsu Ten Ltd., which builds the sort of radar systems used in autonomous driving systems, is Denso’s second deal this month in ADAS-AV following the signing of a technical advisory contract with computer vision and AI expert Carnegie Mellon University Professor Dr. Takeo Kanade.

The era of the mirrorless car is approaching

Camera Monitoring Systems can legally substitute outside rear-view mirrors in Japan from July 2016 as the country adopted the requirements of UN-ECE Regulation 46.04. This opens up new opportunities in the market as the technology has already been displayed in concept cars.

In the latest news, the Chinese Authorities are currently undertaking research to understand the recent amendment with a view to similarly amending the Chinese requirements (GB 15084).

Maps

Japan sets up a new Joint Venture to create high-definition 3-D maps for self-driving cars in September as part of a government effort to have such vehicles on the road by 2020, when the Tokyo Summer Olympics will be held.

Furthermore, Civil Maps, which in July received investment from Ford to accelerate deployment of 3D maps unveiled a passenger-facing augmented reality (AR) experience that integrates the company’s localization technology with 3D dynamic maps.

Suppliers invest in ADAS to achieve long-term profitability

All the above demonstrate significant activity from Automotive Suppliers and OEMs as they position themselves to monetise the era of full vehicle automation and new mobility.

One of the findings of our research on the world’s 8 leading ADAS suppliers was that, on average, their ADAS revenues accounted for approximately 2% of their total automotive revenue in 2015. However, what is now a small proportion of revenues, is expected to drive future profitability over the next decade as ADAS margins are expected to be high with the uptake of ADAS content per vehicle and the commercialisation of Autonomous Driving. As result we expect that many leading ADAS Suppliers will record billions of revenues from their ADAS segments.

Automotive suppliers continue to invest heavily to uniquely position themselves as leaders in autonomous driving and new mobility (car sharing, robot taxis). To learn more and get an understanding of ADAS suppliers’ rankings and market shares in 2015 and how they will develop over the next 5 years read our new report:

Rankings and market shares of Top Tier-1 ADAS Suppliers in 2015 & forecast 2016-2020

This report focuses on the leading manufacturers of the cameras, radars, Lidar and ultrasonic sensors used for ADAS since we have identified them as the ones to benefit more from the uptake of ADAS penetration and the eventual transition towards semi-autonomous and self-driving cars.