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Insights on the V2X regulatory activity with CTO Autotalks

Safety regulation is a major driver for the V2X market given its influence in the technology medium, so that all vehicles speak the “same language”, and the associated infrastructure.

With ITS-G5 (DSRC in the US) deployment and crucial supporting infrastructure being in their infancy, but substantial investment already scheduled for the coming years, today is a critical time for the harmonisation of V2X solutions across carmakers and leading geographies in order to take advantage of their safety benefits.

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Key findings:

  • Regulation, cost and investment to determine which V2X medium will win
    • Not realistic to have both technologies in the car in terms of cost and spectrum efficiency;
    • Voluntary deployment has started but ITS-G5 / DSRC vs Cellular camps could delay standardisation
  • Lack of harmonisation of V2X regulation among major car markets
    • NHTSA’s NPRM for FMVSS 150 provides clear regulatory guidance for DSRC being the recommended technology for V2V communications for Light Vehicles from Sep’20;
    • Apart from NHTSA’s activities for the mandate, we see infrastructure activity in the U.S. which provides an immediate value for drivers. There is no need to wait for the creation of the V2V network;
    • European deployment based on voluntary fitment today whereas substantial investment in ITS-G5 infrastructure is in progress;
    • Europe’s net neutrality principle allows both competing technologies, even as a “hybrid system”, but investment in ITS-G5 infrastructure and VW’s strategy will likely shift the scale towards ITS-G5 (DSRC in the US);
    • China invest in 5G and will set V2V standards circa 2018;
    • Toyota plays major role in Japan;
  • V2X features to mitigate accidents in intersection and left-turn urban scenarios
    • First-day applications with strong potential: “Left-Turn Assist”, “Intersection Movement Assistance”, Incoming Motorcycle Alert” and “Platooning” for Commercial vehicles

Contents

  1. V2X deployment status raises concerns over the lack of harmonization
  2. Learn how regulatory guidance for V2X will evolve in major markets
  3. Weighting in the debate between DSRC / ITS-G5 and C-V2X
  4. Understand which V2X-supported features will come to market first
  5. Winners from the installation of V2X sensors & infrastructure

Download the whitepaper here.

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For a technical overview of 802.11p vs LTE-V2V in terms of performance, cost, services and maturity read a whitepaper that was co-authored by Mr. Haran here.

What our report delivers

For more information on V2X regulation and how it relates to developments for Automated and Secure Connected Cars check our report Regulatory guide to Autonomous Driving, Automotive Cyber Security & V2X.

  • Understand the differences between the way Autonomous Driving regulation works in Europe, the U.S.A and China and how this affects the introduction of SAE Level 3 systems;
  • Learn what deployment strategies carmakers will use to introduce higher autonomy based on the current regulatory and legal framework in major car markets;
  • Benchmark key geographies based on the opportunities regulation presents for testing and deployment of SAE L3-5;
  • Read about the challenges that deployment of Level 3 Traffic Jam Pilot systems faces in Europe and how the amendment of UN Regulation No.79 is progressing;
  • Get an update on the status of regulation, standards and initiatives for Automotive Cyber Security;
  • See how V2V regulatory activity is progressing relative to market deployment.

For sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us info@auto2xtech.com.

USA regs

USA’s updated guidance on Autonomous Vehicles fails to address the key issues

  • Deployment of higher levels of autonomy, SAE Level 3-5, is subject to national regulatory approval with inherent differences in the way regulation works in the USA versus Europe and China;
  • USA’s approach to Autonomous Driving is key for harmonisation of safe and secure ADS testing and deployment but USA seems to follow a standalone policy to give domestic stakeholders an advantage;
  • Although USA’s non-binding guidelines do not impede deployment of L3-4, which promises to reduce road deaths and road stress, they raise concerns over enforcement of safety standards and harmonisation across states;
  • New Trump administration has delayed progress in key cybersecurity and V2V bills while creating further uncertainty on their final implementation.

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Status of AV law in the U.S, Q3-2017 / Source: ncsl.org

NHTSA’s updated guidance does not impede deployment by choosing non-binding guidelines instead of a mandate

12th September, saw the USDOT updating its voluntary guidelines for Autonomous Driving Systems, defined as SAE Level 3-5 systems, by releasing the “AUTOMATED DRIVING SYSTEMS- A Vision for Safety version 2”. The new guidance is an update of the voluntary guidelines for HAVS based on comments received on the Federal Autonomous Vehicle Policy’s (Sep’2016).

The first section of the guidance, titled “Voluntary Guidance” contains 12 priority safety design elements which entities are encouraged to consider when designing ADSs. These elements comprise:

  1. System safety
  2. Operational Design Domain
  3. Object and event detection response
  4. Fall back (minimal risk condition)
  5. Validation methods 
  6. HMI
  7. Vehicle cybersecurity
  8. crashworthiness
  9. Post-crash behaviour
  10. Data recording
  11. Consumer education and training
  12. Federal, State and Local laws

Additionally, the agency recommends that entities have a self-documented process for assessment, testing, and validation of the various elements.

A key point is that NHTSA still encourages manufacturers to submit “Voluntary Safety Self-Assessments” (12-point list) demonstrating approaches for safe ADS testing and deployment, but it does not require them.

The purpose of this Voluntary Guidance is to help designers of ADSs analyse, identify, and resolve safety considerations prior to deployment using their own, industry, and other best practices

USDOT, ADSv2 (Sep’17)

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Source: Audi

The second section of the guidance, the “Technical Assistance to States” clarifies the role of the Federal government and also includes best practices for Legislatures and State Highway Safety Officials.

USA’s updated guidance removes certain obstacles for carmakers

Here are the most significant changes between the new guidance (ADSv2) and the old one (FAVP)

  1. Most of the Auto Alliance’s recommendations/comments on the FAVP made it to the ADSv2. In detail, 3 items were removed from the FAVP’s 15-point Vehicle Performance Guidance: Privacy and data sharing, Registration & Certification and Ethical Considerations;
  2. Another key point removed is the FAVP’s willingness to shift from its current regulatory regime of “self-certification post-fitment” to a ‘’Pre-market approval of HAVs” which has caused significant concern;
  3. The new guidance’s second section incorporates common safety-related components and significant elements regarding ADSs that States should consider incorporating in legislation. NHTSA’s authority remains on design, construction and performance of ADSs;
  4. Finally, “NHTSA strongly encourages States not to codify this Voluntary Guidance as a legal requirement for any phases of development, testing, or deployment of ADSs. Allowing NHTSA alone to regulate the safety design and performance aspects of ADS technology will help avoid conflicting Federal and State laws and regulations that could impede deployment”.

But it fails to address the key concerns

  1. Guidelines have immediate effect against what might be a lengthy rulemaking process but NHTSA’s guidance raises concerns over enforcement of safety and security standards. Enforcement of voluntary guidelines for safe testing and deployment is weaker than a rulemaking procedure and without the latter’s objectivity, such as notice and comment, due process or judicial review. 
  2. It lacks clear legal guidance for ADS manufacturers on performance metrics, potential mandate and updatability. NHTSA’s own FAPV noted that “the absence of established metrics could make it more difficult for OEMs to anticipate the Agency’s evaluation and conclusions regarding the safety of their vehicles’ performance. Another key issue is whether the ODD’s data truly represent real-world conditions.
  3. Harmonisation across states is a key challenge for the USA. It requires state collaboration which has been proven difficult. The SELF DRIVE Act and the LEAD’R Act are positive steps in this direction but both are in early stages.
  4. The Trump’s administration creates uncertainty. This has been demonstrated by the slow progress with Cyber security regulation, i.e. SPY Act as well as FMVSS 150: V2V communication.

 

CADILLAC supercruise

Cadillac’s SuperCruise is a SAE Level 2 feature enabling hands-off-the-steering wheel in highways but requires constant monitoring / Source: Cadillac

Still significant opportunities exist in the USA from its regulatory approach

While European carmakers, mostly German, lead the SAE level 2 in terms of deployment and sales volume, L3 deployment in Europe is currently restricted by the regulatory and legal framework.

The USA presents a favourable environment for testing whereas deployment is subject to both federal and state rules, which are less restrictive than in Europe, Japan and China. USA’s progressive regulatory stance on deployment of higher levels of technology, coupled with significant investment from tech giants which focus on AD platforms, software and AI can give them an edge provided that the key issues of harmonisation and cybersecurity are adequately addressed.

Read more

For an in-depth analysis of the Autonomous Driving regulation in major car markets and how it will affect the AD roadmap of leading carmakers read our report Regulatory guide to Autonomous Driving, Automotive Cyber Security & V2X.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com.

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Regulatory impact on deployment of Highly-automated driving

July 11’s launch of the first-ever Level 3 capable car marks a new era in Autonomous Driving. However, L3 deployment is still subject to regulatory approval. What’s more, the regulatory and legal framework differs across leading car markets.

Here are some insights on which geographies present the most favorable environment for L3 deployment.

L3
Highly-automated driving will be legal in Germany from Sep’17 giving a head start to German brands who are closer to delivering L3. This demonstrates the country’s ambition to be in the forefront of Autonomous driving -not only testing but crucially deployment- ahead of the U.S.A.

Germany will lead L3 deployment in Europe but standardization across Europe is threatened by delays in the amendment process of Regulation No.79.

U.S.A offers a favorable environment for L3 deployment since approval of testing and deployment is at state level while NHTSA’s Federal Autonomous Vehicle Policy is non-binding. But standardization across states is an issue as inconsistencies between state AV regulations exist.

What’s more, there is a concern that the U.S. is pursuing a go-it-alone strategy in an effort to give the domestic industry an advantage. On the contrary, Japan’s government wants to develop international standards for AD through the U.N. World Forum for Harmonization of Vehicle Regulations and Europe is focused on safe and secure deployment with the amendment of Reg.79.

Finally, technology deployment in the world’s largest car market is at risk as delays in Europe’s regulatory amendment have initiated discussion to adopt an earlier version of automated steering regulation which does not include provisions for L3-4.

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For an in-depth analysis of the Autonomous Driving regulation in major car markets and how it will affect the AD roadmap of leading carmakers read our report Roadmap to Self-Driving cars.

Read more insights
Highly-Automated Driving (Level 3) in one out of 6 cars in Europe in 2021
Germany legalises L3 automated driving technology that allows “eyes-off” the road
Who is liable in Level 3 automated mode, the driver or the car?
Volvo to skip Level 3 autonomous mode
Drivers to legally take their “eyes-off” the road from 2017-Autonomous Driving Roadmap report

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (June 22, 2017) ñ The widely anticipated new Nissan LEAF will feature state-of-the-art ProPILOT Assist technology, Nissanís driver-assistance technology that reduces the hassle of stop-and-go highway driving. ProPILOT Assist supports drivers by helping control acceleration, braking and steering during single-lane driving on the highway. In the coming years, Nissanís ProPILOT technology will offer increasing levels of autonomy, with the system eventually able to navigate city intersections. Set to help make driving more secure and more enjoyable, ProPILOT Assist is part of Nissan Intelligent Mobility, the companyís blueprint for transforming how cars are driven, powered and integrated into society.

Highly-Automated Driving (Level 3) in one out of 6 cars in Europe in 2021

ADAS & Automated Driving features increasingly become key product differentiators

With Audi teasing its upcoming A8 with emphasis on automated driving capabilities, we present some findings from our latest report on key ADAS feature penetration and their growth potential over the next five years.

Audi’s new flagship will be the first vehicle to feature a Traffic Jam Pilot which will bring Audi to Level 3 in terms of driving features. At the same time it will also offer L2 Remote Parking, bringing Audi to parity with Mercedes-Benz, BMW and Tesla in terms of L2 parking capabilities -all of them offer either Self-Park, Remote Park or both.

While today, Level 3 deployment is constrained geographically by regulatory approval, key car markets are giving the green light. Our report provides in-depth analysis of how the regulatory framework affects OEM strategy as well as Level 3 deployment.

We expect that in 2021, 17% of new car sales in Europe will offer Highly-Automated Driving (Level 3) features as optional or standard, the majority of which will come from premium car manufacturers.

By then, feature functionality will have expanded from the low-speed, single-lane Traffic Jam Pilot to more advanced Highway Pilots.

Read our report to understand carmakers’ strategies to reach higher levels of vehicle autonomy and the opportunities they create for ADAS sensors, AD platforms as well as collaborations.

Level 2 penetration in Europe reached 6.5% in 2016 with German OEMs holding the lion’s share

While the introduction of Level 3 is big news, especially since the debate over its risk-reward as an intermediate level between Supervised (Level 0-2) vs Unsupervised driving (L4-5) continues, it’s Level 2 that makes its way into new car sales, especially in Europe.

NASHVILLE, Tenn. (June 22, 2017) ñ The widely anticipated new Nissan LEAF will feature state-of-the-art ProPILOT Assist technology, Nissanís driver-assistance technology that reduces the hassle of stop-and-go highway driving. ProPILOT Assist supports drivers by helping control acceleration, braking and steering during single-lane driving on the highway. In the coming years, Nissanís ProPILOT technology will offer increasing levels of autonomy, with the system eventually able to navigate city intersections. Set to help make driving more secure and more enjoyable, ProPILOT Assist is part of Nissan Intelligent Mobility, the companyís blueprint for transforming how cars are driven, powered and integrated into society.

In 2016, 22 models from 8 car manufacturers offered (SAE) L2 driving capabilities globally. BMW led the market both in terms of market share in Level 2 offerings but also in terms of share in total L2 sales in Europe.

As a result, sales of cars fitted with Level 2 Traffic Jam Assist as standard or optional equipment reached almost 1 million in Europe in 2016, accounting for 6.5% of the 15.13 million car sales in Western Europe.

L2 in EuropeNissan is among the carmakers introducing Level 2 functionality in Europe this year with the ProPilot Assist in the new Leaf, Qashqai and the X-Trail. Nissan’s technology, which will later expand to unlock multi-lane cruising support, was launched last year in Japan in the new Serena.

We expect that in 2019, at least 50 models will be equipped with Traffic Jam Assist or Cruise Assist in Europe, with premium OEMs’ share accounting for 74%.

Here’s a table with the marketing names used by carmakers for their Level 2 Driving features.L2 naming

To learn more insights on ADAS and Automated Driving, including strategy and roadmap of leading carmakers read our latest report Roadmap to Self-Driving Cars.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com.

CADILLAC supercruise

Who is liable in Level 3 automated mode, the driver or the car?

Extensive data recording of “critical events” while in L3 to assist in accident reconstruction and liability

  • Today, in Level 0-2, the driver’s inattention at any given point in time triggers his liability
  • Level 3- Conditional “eyes-off”, hitting the road by the end of 2017, has implications for the determination of liability because the driver will be conditionally allowed to be “distracted” but he is still required to be “available”
  • Impact on traditional vehicle insurance as well as carmakers, given the significant engineering challenges to implement extensive data recording amid an immature regulatory framework
  • Carmakers to accept liability while in L3 automated mode but drivers must not sleep or move away from the seat- emergency vehicle stop if the driver fails to respond to takeover request

volvo-self-driving-paddles-970x546-c

Why we need Event Data Recorders (EDR) for automated driving

Existing EDR capability is focused on the seconds around a crash (e.g. 30 seconds before and 15s after the crash) while data capturing needs for Automated Driving may cover a much broader period and require longer storage.

In Level 3, when the system is active and when it becomes legal for drivers to be partially distracted by ADAS, drivers will be able to relax, read, text, call, watch TV, but not sleep or move from their seat because they must always be available to takeover vehicle control when the system signals a transition demand or in case of a system malfunction. But the driver will still be responsible for the overall vehicle control even when the system is active and will have the ability to override it.

In case a “critical event” occurs while the ADS is active, which might expand from an accident to include traffic law violations, data recording capabilities will be required to contribute to accident reconstruction and potentially assist in supporting claims against the manufacturer.

Data recording would be useful to understand if the system failed or transferred control to the driver who failed to ‘’react’’

Therefore, we assess that AD event data recording requirements will be both an engineering prerequisite and a regulatory/legal requirement for deployment and legality to accommodate ‘’critical events’’ and ‘’automated driving mode’’. In the words, to make sure that effective driver monitoring is in place and, when needed, control can be handed back to a driver who is fit and able to drive the vehicle.

What is more, it will be necessary to be able to access the vehicle data in order to determine the circumstances surrounding a given incident, any possible defect or fault in the system, or whether the vehicle was operating under a partially/fully automated mode.

Immature regulatory guidance on data recording and storage for Automated Driving challenges deployment

There is a consensus that EDR-AD will be a regulatory prerequisite for the deployment of L3 as demonstrated by the requirements for EDRs-AD in the amendment of the German Road Traffic Act and the amendment of Reg.79 which already mentions DSSA capabilities -although at a draft status. The problem is that regulatory action is at an early stage therefore guidance on engineering requirements is still immature. We expect though that this will not restrict car manufacturers and suppliers to put EDR-AD in place for L3.

Germany has already passed a law that will allow L3 as long as data recording and sharing are in place and systems are compliant with relevant international regulation. Furthermore, Germany and the UK are among the key car markets which have already started procedures to adjust their road traffic laws/acts to accommodate L3.

On the contrary, the U.S follows a standalone policy based on the star-by-state control of AD regulation and the voluntary federal guidelines which might cause lack of standardisation.

Amid the immature regulatory framework, carmakers face the challenge to design and implement data recording capabilities that will cover the minimum (expected) regulatory requirements but also cover them above and beyond in terms of product liability.

To read more about Autonomous Driving regulation check our report Roadmap to Self-Driving Cars.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com.

Aktiver Nothalt-Assistent; Wenn der Fahrer nicht mehr reagiert; Der Aktive Nothalt-Assistent bremst das Fahrzeug in der eigenen Spur bis zum Stillstand ab, wenn er erkennt, dass der Fahrer während der Fahrt mit eingeschaltetem Aktivem Lenk-Assistent dauerhaft nicht mehr in das Fahrgeschehen eingreift. ;

Active Emergency Stop Assist; If the driver is unable to respond; Active Emergency Stop Assist brakes the vehicle in its lane to standstill if the system detects no driver reaction while driving with Active Steering Assist turned on. When there is no steering wheel movement over a predefi ned period, the system informs the driver by visual and audible prompt to place the hands on the steering wheel.;

Drivers to legally take their “eyes-off” the road from 2017-Autonomous Driving Roadmap report

Learn about leading OEMs’ ADAS & Autonomous Driving roadmap and strategies

Auto2x’s latest report examines the current status of autonomous vehicle deployment including the ADAS&AD portfolio of 24 leading OEMs, the engineering and regulatory challenges for high levels of autonomy and the business models to overcome and monetise them. Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.

CADILLAC supercruiseRead about our key findings:

2017 will see the introduction of technology that allows “eyes-off” the road

2017 is the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS providing assistance for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (L3) which can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’. However, in L3 the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the
takeover request.

Level 3 deployment is still subject to regional regulatory approval. What’s more, the regulatory and legal framework differs across leading car markets. This could result in lack of harmonisation and restrict standardisation, adversely impacting the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.

Germany legalises Level 3 automated driving giving a head-start to German carmakers

Germany wants to be in the forefront of Autonomous driving (testing and deployment) ahead of the U.S. therefore it has amended the German Road Traffic Act (Straßenverkehrsgesetz, StVG) to allow domestic car manufacturers, which already are closer to L3, to deploy their systems in the market. Deployment of L3 in Germany would be possible under the new framework, but also provided that systems are compliant with UNECE regulations and data recording for accident reconstruction and claims.

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistences between what’s legal?

The removal of the front passenger seat allows for full forward vision creating a uniquely spacious environment.

Another OEM skips L3 as the debate for Conditionally-Unsupervised driving continues

Volvo is now added to the list of carmakers pulling away from deployment of Level 3 with the CEO characterizing the handover of vehicle control as unsafe. The company claims they will only offer (completely) unsupervised autonomous mode when it’s safe, for which it will assume full responsibility. This comes a few months away from the first-ever L3-equipped car from Audi.

Different OEM strategies over Supervised vs Conditionally and Completely-Unsupervised driving

This development is another demonstration of the different approaches leading car manufacturers are following to commercialize automated driving amid the engineering, regulatory and consumer adoption hurdles.

The industry is currently facing a debate over supervised (L0-2) vs (optionally) unsupervised driving (L4-5) and whether an intermediate” level (L3), where the system can monitor but drivers have to takeover in case of an emergency is safe and adds value to owners. Thus, the commercialisation of L3 is uncertain given the high cost/benefit ratio, i.e. the marginal impact on safety and driver convenience from L2 comparing to the massive engineering challenge.

Partially-automated (L2) model offerings expand to the compact segment

At the same time, more carmakers are introducing L2 parking and driving capabilities and expand L2 feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment. This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements and competition drive fitment of ADAS.

l2 2015-17

Aggressive marketing contributes to customer confusion and leads to misuse and/or abuse of L2

L2’s purpose is to assist the driver but not substitute him by offering longitudinal and lateral assistance. L2 Traffic Jam Assists and Cruise Assists may allow a few seconds of hands-free driving
but do not have the system capability and redundancy to monitor the road-hence your hands-on-the steering- wheel are mandatory (from both technological and legal perspective) despite what you here from some aggressive marketing campaigns.

Engineering challenges to drive demand for sensors, SW and collaborations

A Mobileye executive has recently described the challenge and complexity of launching SAE L4, i.e. chauffer driving and valet parking features among others, with putting a man on the moon. Higher level of vehicle automation will require augmented sensor set, new architecture and innovative validation methods among others.

This will drive demand for sensors, supercomputers, high precision
maps etc. It will also drive further collaboration between OEMs and Tier 1s-2s for the development of AD platforms-be it L4 for car sharing or not.

New business models arise in the new era of smart mobility

Carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, such as tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo) and MNOs compete in the autonomous vehicle race to establish a winning portfolio or just remain competitive.

L4/fully-automated vehicles will revolutionise transportation and mobility leading to what we call Intelligent Mobility. This includes the rising car-sharing and ride-sharing businesses as well as new
vehicle ownership models in the Passenger Car market. We analyse opportunities across the supply chain.

For a detailed Table of Contents or Sample Pages contact us on: (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com or visit auto2xtech.com.

A member of the media test drives a Tesla Motors Inc. Model S car equipped with Autopilot in Palo Alto, California, U.S., on Wednesday, Oct. 14, 2015. Tesla Motors Inc. will begin rolling out the first version of its highly anticipated "autopilot" features to owners of its all-electric Model S sedan Thursday. Autopilot is a step toward the vision of autonomous or self-driving cars, and includes features like automatic lane changing and the ability of the Model S to parallel park for you. Photographer: David Paul Morris/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Germany legalises L3 automated driving technology that allows “eyes-off” the road

  • Current ADAS Level 2 systems assist but do not substitute the driver, i.e. provide longitudinal and lateral assistance enabling some limited hands-off driving but drivers must always be in control -due to regulation and system capabilities
  • Level 3 systems, enabling the car to take control of the driving and monitoring task, will hit the road this year but are subject to regulatory approval
  • Amendment of the German Road Traffic Act opens up the road for L3 in Germany but compliance with EU law is also required

Germany wants to be in the forefront of Autonomous driving (testing and deployment) ahead of the U.S. therefore it has amended the German Road Traffic Act (Straßenverkehrsgesetz, StVG) to allow domestic car manufacturers, which already are closer to L3, to deploy their systems in the market.

In April, the Bundestag, the lower house of the German parliament, approved the version therefore the only part missing for the amendment of the StVG to come into force was approval from the upper chamber of the German parliament, the Bundesrat. This came in May 12th, earlier than initially expected, removing the regulatory barrier for Audi who plans to deliver the first-ever L3 Traffic Jam Pilot in its updated version of the flagship A8.

Level 3 (SAE) vehicle automation represents a milestone in Autonomous Driving because when these features are active they can take over the monitoring task, together with the driving task, enabling drivers to take their “eyes-off” the road. But the driver must always be available to takeover, since he/she are the ultimate back-up. In case the driver is incapacitated and unable to take back control, adequate robustness must be in place to bring the vehicle into a safe stop, initially in lane.

To learn how Level 3 changes the driving task and how carmakers plan to get there read our post: Volvo to skip Level 3.

Today, even the most innovative ADAS systems for driving and parking, such as Mercedes’s Drive Pilot, Tesla’s Autopilot and BMW’s Remote Control Parking are classified under SAE’s definition as Level 2-Assistive. This means, that they can assist but cannot substitute the driver who must always be in control.

Figure: Volvo’s L3 Intellisafe Autopilot allows hands-off and eyes-off (Source: Volvo)Volvo_Autonomous_driving

L3-Conditional automation to be legal in Germany from Sep’17 requiring EDRs-AD and compliance with UN-EU regs

Initially, this legislation was expected to pass Parliament before federal elections in September 2017, a timeline that aligns with the introduction of the L3-Traffic Jam Pilot from Audi in the 2018MY A8. However, the approval occurred earlier than expected demonstrating the German government’s willingness to promote the domestic market as the leader in Automated Driving which promises a zero-road death future and to unlock time for drivers to focus on other tasks beside driving while commuting.

The amendment of national traffic laws, together with the amendment of international Reg.79 which is expected to come into force by Oct’18, will open up the road for “hands-off and eyes-off” L3 (but not L4 yet). However, many issues remain open with the most important being what exactly will drivers be allowed to do in L3 and the specifications of data recording and sharing capabilities for Event Data Recorders (EDR) which will assist in determining liability when an accident occurs while the L3 system was driving.

Deployment of L3 in Germany would be possible under the new framework, but also provided that systems are compliant with UNECE regulations (e.g. Reg.79 or an exemption is granted) and EDRs (for L3) are fitted for accident reconstruction and claims.

EDR requirements for L3 are immature yet, with more information is expected to come before the finalisation of the law. Minimum requirements from the German draft law include recording of lateral control, system active status, and handover requests for accident reconstruction and insurance claims. Data must be available to relevant road traffic authorities upon request, as well as to any third party. From conversations with Tier 1s, we understand that EDRs for TJP are probably developed in-house by other OEMs rather than in collaboration with suppliers.

Audi to get a head start, other leading premium German OEMs and Tesla to follow

This gives an advantage to Audi since the brand’s launch date for L3-TJP with the new 2018MY A8 is in line with the law coming into force in Sep’17. Audi’s system will probably be categorised as ACSF B2 but we expect the brand to use EU’s Article 20 to get an exemption for the new technology.

Figure: Audi L3 Piloted Driving (Source: Audi)Audi TJP

We expect that other German-based OEMs which are technologically closer to L3 will also benefit, with BMW and Mercedes-Benz being the obvious candidates. Tesla will also benefit since it claims that it is close to L3 (Self-driving functionality). However, the company has been asked by the German government to change its Autopilot naming to avoid customer confusion and misuse/abuse.

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy

The problem arises from the fact that vehicle regulation and national traffic laws have been developed with the driver in mind, i.e. driver in control. From a technological perspective, we have now reached the point where in certain markets the amendment of regulation is needed to allow Automated Driving Systems to take conditional and eventually full control of the driving task and monitoring of the road.

At the same time, national traffic laws might need to change to accommodate the new driving conditions, e.g. allow the complete absence of driving controls for L4/L5 or driver for L5. Amendments are in progress, to allow the driver to be ‘’out of the loop’’.

But will there be regional inconsistences between what’s legal given that the regulatory landscape in the U.S is different than the rest of the world’s major car markets?

To read more about Autonomous Driving regulation check our report Roadmap to Self-Driving Cars. For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com.

Aktiver Nothalt-Assistent; Wenn der Fahrer nicht mehr reagiert; Der Aktive Nothalt-Assistent bremst das Fahrzeug in der eigenen Spur bis zum Stillstand ab, wenn er erkennt, dass der Fahrer während der Fahrt mit eingeschaltetem Aktivem Lenk-Assistent dauerhaft nicht mehr in das Fahrgeschehen eingreift.  ;

Active Emergency Stop Assist; If the driver is unable to respond; Active Emergency Stop Assist brakes the vehicle in its lane to stand still if the system detects no driver reaction while driving with Active Steering Assist turned on. When there is no steering wheel movement over a 
predefined period, the system informs the driver by visual and audible prompt to place the hands on the steering wheel.;

BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla were the only brands already capable of Level 2 Driving and Parking in 2016-Free whitepaper

Partially-automated model availability more than doubled in 2016

The number of models offering Partially-automated driving capabilities (L2-D) as standard or optional equipment rose by 144.4% in 2016 to 22 models, from just 9 in 2015. Growth was primarily driven by European automakers’ strategy to expand Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) offerings across their model range.

Models with L2-D+P in 2016-17

German car manufactures hold the lion’s share in Level 2-Driving feature offerings

What is more, the number of models offering Self-Parking (SP) capabilities tripled in 2016 amounting to 6 models, whereas those equipped with Remote Parking (RP) doubled to 4. Still though, capability of both L2 driving and parking (L2-D+P) is concentrated in a handful of premium brands’ models. In detail, only 3 car manufacturers, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla, offered 6 models equipped with TJA and SP as standard or optional equipment in 2016, of which only 4 also offered RP.

bmw self-driving

Some of our key findings for the availability of L2 in Europe in 2016:

  • Partially-automated model availability more than doubled in 2016
  • Audi, BMW and Mercedes are expanding their offerings of Level 2 Automated Driving across carlines but more importantly, TJA (L2) has now reached the compact car segment and volume OEMs including VW and Nissan.
  • 2017 will see the introduction of technology that allows conditional “eyes-off” the road

Regulatory, engineering and other challenges for L3-5 deployment

Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but standardisation will be a challenge 2016 saw a shift in the focus of regulation from approval of L3/4 testing to discussion for reforms to enable deployment of L3 in public roads. We expect regulatory action to continue stronger in 2017 as key car markets boost their efforts to lead the AV global scene but also guarantee safe and secure deployment.

The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment of international regulations as well as national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies?

Download our free whitepaper for more insights on ADAS&AD offerings in Europe here: http://auto2xtech.com/go/adlpfreep1/

For further information about our consulting service please contact us on info@auto2xtech.com, (+44) (0) 203 286 4562 or visit auto2xtech.com.

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Volvo to skip Level 3 autonomous mode

Volvo is now added to the list of carmakers pulling-away from deployment of Level 3 automated driving (at least for now) with the CEO characterizing the handover of vehicle control as unsafe.

This comes a few months away from the first-ever L3-equipped car from Audi which will conditionally allow drivers to take their eyes-off the road at low speeds and perform some side tasks but requires them to always be available to takeover within a few seconds. Volvo argues that this handover of control is unsafe and will only offer (completely) unsupervised autonomous mode when it’s safe, for which it will assume full responsibility.

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Debate over supervised vs unsupervised driving modes-is an intermediate one a good idea?

Earlier, Ford and Google have also expressed a similar philosophy, with the latter basing its approach on the fact that intermediate levels were subject to abuse and/or misuse. More recently, Mercedes has expressed a similar approach, at least as long as it can guarantee the “best or nothing” moto. Thus, it’s expected the updated version of its (Level 2) Drive Pilot in the upcoming flagship S-Class will also be marketed as an Assistive Level 2 system, even though its capabilities could probably support Level 3.

Another key issue is that the deployment of an immature technology for the sake of remaining competitive could have continuous disengagements thus spoiling the driving experience and ruining customer attractiveness.

This development is another demonstration of the different approaches leading car manufacturers are following to commercialize automated driving amid the engineering, regulatory and consumer adoption hurdles. The industry is currently facing a debate over supervised (L0-2) vs (optionally) unsupervised driving (L4-5) and whether an “intermediate” level (L3), where the system can monitor but drivers have to takeover in case of an emergency is safe and adds value to owners.

2017 is the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (L3) which can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’

L3 driving, 070417

 

What’s coming up from leading carmakers

Volvo will start testing its geo-fenced L4 Intellisafe technology using real families this year in Sweden with the Drive Me project, collecting data on system performance as well as feedback of driver acceptance of what will now be an “unsupervised” driving experience.

Mercedes-Benz is also collecting data for it’s automated driving technology in a project in Australia.

Tesla’s Enhanced Autopilot, which is equipped with an augmented sensor set and Tesla Vision – the proprietary image processing after the split with Mobileye- has almost reached feature parity with the original Autopilot (L0-2) with Musk promising Self-driving capabilities within the year.

Audi is expected to launch the new A8 in Germany, where the legal framework is currently being amended to allow L3, together with certain states in the Americas where the regulatory framework allows it. The feature is expected to initially run in the background until validation and verification is completed.

It’s up to the Germans now to prove that handover of vehicle control can be done safely, intuitively, without disrupting user experience, and that drivers will exploit the conditional eyes-off the road Traffic Jam Assist offers. If the outcome is successful, this head start will be crucial and determine the approach other carmakers follow to commercialise autonomous driving. It will also provide evidence to other key car markets to amend their legal and regulatory framework to allow conditional automation.

To read more about the strategies leading carmakers follow to unlock higher levels of automated driving check our report Roadmap to Self-Driving Cars. For more information on this report, including sample pages and full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com.

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Demand for Hybrids drives growth of Alternatively-Fuelled Vehicle sales in Western Europe in 2016

London, February 1st, 2017

Electrification and hybridisation of Western European powertrains continued in 2016 with total sales of AFV rising by 6.7% comparing to 2015 reaching just over 600,000 units. However, AFV penetration in Western European car sales remained at 4.5%, the same level as in 2015, according to data published by the ACEA.

Key findings:

  • Total sales of Alternatively-Fuelled Vehicles (AFV) in Western Europe (EU-28+EFTA) rose by 6.7% in 2016, driven by +28.8% growth in Hybrids
  • AFV sales amounted to 686,820 or 4.5% of Western Europe car sales in 2016; same as in 2015
  • Strong demand in hybrids (HEVs, +28.8%), PHEVs (+17.2%) and lower for Battery Electric Vehicles (BEVs, +2.9%) compensated for the drop in sales of LPG+NGV+E85, (-19.6%) and Extended Range EVs+Fuel Cell EVs, (-23.0%).
  • HEVs accounted for 44% of AFV sales, followed by LPG+NGV+E85 with 26% and BEVs with 13%.
  • Italy leads AFV sales’ volume but the UK is the leader in Western Europe by sales’ volume of PHEV, Other ECV and HEVs
  • Norway leads AFV penetration with more than 10 times the W.Europe penetration

Cap1ture

Italy leads AFV sales’ volume but Norway leads AFV penetration with 10x the W.Europe

Capt3ureRenault remained the BEV leader in Europe

ZOE heads the electric passenger car ranking with 21,735 registrations (up 16%) and Kangoo Z.E. the electric light commercial vehicle market with 3,901 vehicles sold, according to the brand.

1280px-Geneva_MotorShow_2013_-_Renault_Zoe_chargingChina remains the world’s largest EV market followed by the U.S.

Data for Chinese BEV and PHEV until Oct’16 from CAAM, China’s automotive association, show sales Jan-Oct sales of 258,000 and 79,000 units respectively. This gives the global EV lead in China with 337,000 ”new energy vehicles” and penetration in new car sales of 1.8%.

In the U.S, EV sales amounted to 159,139 in 2016, up 37.1% from the year before. Tesla led the U.S. EV market with Model S ranking 1st and Model X 3rd with 29,400 and 18,223 units respectively, according to data from insideevs.

BMW to offer 9 electrified models in 2017, up from 7 in 2016

Full-year sales of BMW electrified vehicles topped 62,000 in 2016, with the figures growing strongly through the year as more models were added to the line-up. The BMW Group now offers a total of seven electrified vehicles, the broadest range of any manufacturer. With the addition of the BMW 5 Series and the MINI Countryman plug-in hybrids in the coming months, the BMW Group will have nine electrified vehicles in its portfolio and is targeting electrified sales of 100,000 units in 2017.

New product launches from Jaguar and Mercedes-Benz

Mercedes plans to launch a new generation of electrified cars under the EQ brand starting with the Generation EQ, a high-riding SUV is planned to go into production in 2019. The German brand targets at least ten electric vehicles to wear the new badge by 2025 to compete with existing competition such as Tesla’s Model S and X, as well as the recently announced Jaguar I-Pace expected by late 2018, Audi’s e-tron and the much-anticipated Tesla Model 3.

Generation EQ, Exterieur
Generation EQ, Exterieur

 

For more information on this electric vehicle sales check our report on Automotive Powertrains.

To request a full Table of Contents please contact us on: (+44) (0)20 3286 4562, info@auto2xtech.com or visit auto2xtech.com