Roadmap to Self-Driving cars 2025: leading carmakers’ roadmap and strategy to commercialize Autonomous Driving
This report examines the current status of autonomous vehicle deployment including the ADAS&AD portfolio of 24 leading OEMs, the engineering and regulatory challenges for high levels of autonomy and the business models to overcome them. Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.
2019 could see the introduction of technology that allows drivers to take their “eyes-off” the road under specific conditions
Technologically, 2017 was the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (Level 3) with Audi becoming the first to introduce a L3-Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval. This means that the introduction of ”eyes-off-the road” technology could be delayed to end of 2019 / early 2020.
In Level 3, the driver can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’.
But the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the takeover request.
Today, Level 3 deployment is still subject to regional regulatory approval. What’s more, the regulatory and legal framework differs across leading car markets. This could result in lack of harmonisation and requirements for design variants which could adversely impact manufacturers of Automated Driving Systems as well as the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.
Partially automated (L2) model offerings expand to the compact segment
At the same time, more carmakers are introducing L2 parking and driving capabilities and expand L2 feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment.
This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements and competition drive fitment of ADAS.
New entrants compete for a share in the new mobility era
Carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, such as tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo) and MNOs compete in the autonomous vehicle race to establish a winning portfolio or just remain competitive.
However, many of the engineering, regulatory/legal and ethical challenges for deployment of higher levels of autonomy remain unresolved.
Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but harmonisation will be a challenge
The transition from driver-centric regulation to Automated Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment in international regulations and national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what’s legal?
What is the status of AD regulation in Europe and the U.S? What is the impact on L3 deployment?
Which geography presents the most favourable environment for deployment of Level 3?
Clear guidance on the safe and secure development, testing and deployment of AV technologies is necessary as well as harmonisation of homologation standards or vehicle certification in order to comply with safety standards.
Higher level of automation require augmented sensor set, architecture and enhanced robustness
A Mobileye executive has recently described the challenge and complexity of launching SAE L4, i.e. Highly-autonomous cars which are equipped with chauffeur driving and valet parking features among others, with putting a man on the moon.
Further development in machine learning is required in the area of maps and image processing, to improve object recognition and subsequently decision-making in split-second timeframe. Tesla and Ford have announced developments in this area together with some leading Tier-1s.
How are carmakers forging their HW and SW portfolio to enable L3 and higher levels of automation?
How will this affect the mobility ecosystem and the supply chain?
New business models arise in the new era of smart mobility
The approval of L3 will allow greater utilisation of the time spent inside the car. As a result, new business models arise to monetise the new opportunities, e.g. in automotive insurance and in-vehicle infotainment. L4/fully-automated vehicles will revolutionise transportation and mobility leading to what we call Intelligent Mobility.
What this report delivers
This report focuses on leading car manufacturers’ ADAS&AD portfolio, strategies and business models to transition towards full automation and self-driving cars. Moreover, it examines the regulatory landscape and other technical challenges and their implications on deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy.
Finally, we provide a technological roadmap for the introduction of L2-5 by leading OEM and a penetration forecast of cars equipped with different levels of autonomy over the next decade.
- Learn about the status of vehicle automation in 2015-18:
- What is the availability of key ADAS features, such as FCW, LDW, TSR, AEB, ACC, LKA, TJA and Self-Park, in leading carmakers?
- What is the penetration rate of SAE Level 0, 1 and 2 in Europe between 2016 and 2018?
- Which OEMs lead Level 2 deployment today and why?
- What changes in 2019-20 in terms of deployment of L2 and L3?
- Understand the regulatory and engineering challenges carmakers face for the deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy:
- What is the status of Autonomous Driving regulation in major car markets?
- What are the differences in the legal and regulatory framework in Europe and the United States and how this will affect L3-5 deployment?
- Which geography presents the most favourable environment for deployment of Level 3?
- What breakthroughs are required in the area of SW/HW and validation for L3/4?
- Read how carmakers, Tier-1s and new-entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving
- How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities and when?
- OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations
- Learn why leading Tier-1s are well positioned to monetize ADAS growth
- Who will lead the autonomous vehicle race?
- Discover when leading carmakers will launch capabilities of L2, L3, L4 and L5 segmented into Driving (L2-TJA vs L3-TJP) and Parking features (e.g. L2-Self Park, L4-Valet Parking)
- What are the trends by ADAS levels in Top Premium OEMs’ model range during 2016-21?
- Learn about the penetration of different levels of autonomy in European car sales in 2021
- Benchmark competition: ADAS feature mix by level of autonomy 2017-2021, information on ADAS portfolio suppliers and competitiveness
Table of contents
1. The status of Autonomous Driving deployment in 2016-17 (19 pages)
- SAE Level 2 is already here whereas L3-D will hit the market in 2017
- SAE Level 2 status in Europe in 2016: TJA, SP and RP availability in leading OEMs’ model range
- L2-D status in Europe in 2016: Traffic Jam Assist (TJA) availability
- Comparison of L2-D tech: speeds, lane change, hands-on detection, stop-in lane, and naming strategy
- L2-P status in Europe 2016: Self-park and Remote Parking availability
- L2 penetration in European car sales in 2016
- L2 OEM ranking in 2016 vs 2017: leaders & followers
- SAE Level 1 status in Europe in 2016: ACC, AEB CUI, PA and LKA availability in leading OEMs
- SAE L0 in Europe: Availability of BSM, DDM, FCW, LDW, TSR in leading OEMs
- Marketing names for ADAS L0/1 features in Top-6 Premium OEMs
- SAE Level 3 testing pilots: who tests what and where
- What does L3-Conditionally automated driving look like?
2. Regulatory, engineering and other challenges for the deployment of L3-L5 (16 pages)
- Read why regulation challenges Autonomous Driving deployment
- Overview of AD regulatory & legal status in key geographies in 2016
- The amendment of Reg.79-Steering equipment will allow L3 deployment in Europe
- Today are ADAS are assistive and hands-on the wheel are always required
- Reg.79 amendment is the critical step towards self-steering systems
- Three concerns arising from the UNECE Reg.79’s amendment
- The USA has opened up the road to HAVs with the FAVP
- State of AV testing in the United States in 2016/17
- Concern over U.S Federal Autonomous Vehicle Policy
- L3 automated driving to become legal in Germany from autumn 2017
- The impact of AD regulation on L3 deployment
- Technical challenges for deployment and other key factors affecting AD adoption
- Liability in L3 and the role of Event Data Recorders for AD
- Vehicle Cybersecurity becomes a top priority for carmakers
- OEM and regulatory activity heats-up in major car markets
- What is needed to secure Connected Cars
3. OEM-Tier 1 strategies to commercialize Autonomous Driving (4 pages)
- Incremental vs skip approach to reach Highly automated driving
- Building your own ADS platform vs collaboration
- Learn why leading ADAS Suppliers are well positioned to monetise ADAS growth
- Use cases and business models to commercialize L4/5
4. From Assisted to Autonomous: L2-L5 roadmap from leading OEMs (19 pages)
- Overview of L2-L5 Driving and Parking roadmap by OEM at earliest implementation
- Trends from the AD roadmap of Top Premium OEMs 2016-2021
- Autonomous driving technology deployment: leaders and followers
- AD technology roadmap: key ADAS features and sensor set
- Partial automation: from single to multi-lane, high-speed systems
- The impact of EuroNCAP’s 2025 roadmap
- Learn which geographies will lead L3 deployment
- European car sales by level of automation during 2016-2021
- Market shares of European car sales by level of automation during 2016-2021
- OEM market shares in European car sales by ADAS level 2017 vs 2021
- L4-Full automation and L5
- L4/5-and new mobility concepts
- The role of user experience, HMI, smartphones and in-car apps in L4/5
5. ADAS&AD portfolio & roadmap by leading OEM (24 pages)
- ADAS feature availability in model range in 2016 and sensor set
- AD outlook: product roadmap and model range by AD level 2016-2021
Other companies included in our AD Roadmap but not profiled include:
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