Hydrogen Fuel Cells will gain popularity by 2030 fueled by regulation and decarbonization strategies
Hydrogen Mobility could reach Total Addressable Market (TAM) of $185 Billion by 2026, while Fuel cells have a TAM of $12 Billion.
Today, the application of hydrogen as a fuel is not a popular option for transportation because of high cost of production, difficulties in handling and distribution and the lack of hydrogen infrastructure network, among others.
Furthermore, Hydrogen value chains can be complex and require cross-sector investment co‑ordination, which multiplies risks, especially for new network infrastructure.
Adoption of fuel cell technology in cars is still in its infancy, with approximately 3,500 cars sold in China, USA, Europe and Japan in 2019. According to IEA “The global fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) stock reached 11,200 units at the end of 2018, with sales of around 4 000 in that year (80% more than in 2017).
Hydrogen is particularly suitable for trucks which carry heavy goods over long distances on their pursuit for zero emissions because of faster charging than BEV trucks, and longer range.
We are experiencing a sharp shift to zero-emission technologies from the automotive industry which now realizes the potential of Hydrogen for Commercial mobility to meet sustainability goals.
We believe that Hydrogen has a role in the electrification strategies of players in the new era of electrified mobility.
Policy in China, Europe and Japan is favourable for Hydrogen, especially for heavy-duty trucks
China has recently extended the incentives for NEVs (New Energy Vehicles) but has also shown commitment to Hydrogen mobility through incentives for FCVs. NEV sales in China, which include BEV, PHEV and FCV, rose to 1.25 million. NEV sales have recorded a CAGR of 59.8% between 2014 & 2020.
In September 2020, France presented the national hydrogen strategy with a plan to provide an investment of €7.2 billion by 2030 and a hydrogen production capacity of 6.5 GW by 2030. France announced its Hydrogen Deployment Plan for Energy Transition in June 2018, the targets of which include 20-40% low-carbon hydrogen use in industrial applications of hydrogen, and a reduction in electrolysis cost to EUR 2-3/kg by 2028.
In 2020, Germany’s National Hydrogen Strategy earmarked $8.2 Billion for investments in new business and research around green hydrogen and $2.3 Billion to support international partnerships around hydrogen development.
Japan and South Korea are expected to be pivotal in advancing the fuel cell electric vehicle technology, as Toyota and Hyundai-Kia claim to become the global leaders in fuel cell technology.
Innovation is supporting the progress of Hydrogen Mobility
Platinum is a major contributor to the high cost of FCVs. Platinum is expensive which increases the initial cost of fuel cell production. Replacing it with another material which gives the same effectiveness for oxidation-reduction reaction that of Pt is difficult.
Extensive research over the past several decades was focused on developing alternative catalysts, including non-noble metal catalysts. These electro catalysts include noble metals and alloys, carbon materials, quinone and derivatives, transition metal macrocyclic compounds, transition metal chalcogenides, and transition metal carbides.
Over the past year, research work to cut down platinum costs has gained momentum. Recent catalyst developments are key to the future of fuel cell technology, and the large-scale commercialization of clean electric power for transportation, as they:
- Reduce fuel cell costs, by reducing the use of precious metals
- Improve durability through innovative catalyst layer designs
- Increase robustness to a range of operating conditions
Three innovative start-ups working on Hydrogen & Fuel Cells for Automotive Applications
|Green Hydrogen||Advanced Ionics||Symbiotic ™ Electrolyzers||Advanced Ionics has developed an electrolyser that runs at temperatures below 650 C and it is reportedly able to produce hydrogen for <$0.85/kg.|
|Fuel Cells||GenCell||Alkaline fuel cell (AFC)||Offers alkaline fuel cell (AFC) technology, the only fuel cell technology with the chemistry and robustness that can utilize hydrogen produced from cracking ammonia, according to the company|
|Advent Technologies||HT-PEM Fuel Cell||HT – PEM (High Temperature Proton Exchange Membrane) that can use any fuels such as Hydrogen, methanol, natural gas, ethanol, other alcoholic fuels|
Table of Contents
- Market Opportunity
- Market forces driving Hydrogen adoption
- Opportunity in Commercial Mobility
- Market status and outlook
- Technological innovaton
- Player Strategy