1. ADAS Strategy Comparison: Winner-Geely

Roadmaps to Level 4-Autonomous Driving: Winner-Changan

• Changan offers Level 3-Conditional Automated Driving since 2020 and plans Level 4 in 2025
• Geely, in cooperation with Volvo Cars, aims to have one-third of its sales with full autonomous drive capabilities by 2025. We expect Geely to follow a similar roadmap to Volvo which means they will have Level 4 in 2022 & L4-P VP

Changan Auto’s Lv.3 Traffic Jam Pilot in UNI-T and Level 2 iACC

In March 2020, Zhu Huarong, President of Changan Automobile, demonstrated the Level 3 autonomous driving function of the UNI-T SUV. According to a Changan’s announcement, it was the first time that Level 3 autonomous driving technology was applied to mass production in China. Equipped with L3-TJP, the UNI-T vehicle monitors the traffic conditions on a continuous basis and conducts fully autonomous driving at speeds up to 40 km/h; when the speed is above 40 km/h, the driver only has to keep eyes on the road information

Launched in 2018, Changan’s integrated Adaptive Cruise Control (IACC) facilitates smart driving features including traffic assisted driving, lane keep assist, lane change assist, automatic deceleration during turns, intelligent speed limit assist, and voice-activated cruise speed setting. Initially mass produced on the CS 55 SUV, the IACC system is now installed in multiple Changan vehicles; including the UNI series, the Oushang X7 and the CS 85 series.

Geely does offer Level 3 yet but has a high Level 2 penetration

G-Pilot represents Geely’s efforts in the AD technology field. From 2018 and onwards, Geely has equipped the majority of its models with G-Pilot 2.0; a system that combines Adaptive Cruise Control, Lane Keep Assist, Automatic Parking Assistant, Crash Detection and low-speed Emergency Braking (AEB); enabling this way Geely’s capability to realize L2 autonomous driving functions.

The availability of Level 0-2 in their model Line-up in 2021 in China: Winner-Geely

• Geely: L1-Safety in 76% of their models in China whereas L2-D penetration was at 68% in 2020 
• Changan: L1-Safety: 60%, L2-D: 37% and L3-D: 6%

Strategy execution incl. key partnerships

Changan and Huawei collaborate in Level-4 autopilot, 5G and C-V2X

Changan Automobile cooperates with Huawei on the “Beidou Tianshu Plan” aiming to create an intelligent network that integrates intelligent driving, vehicle connectivity and other software development; as well to promote the deployment of new energy vehicles. In this direction, Changan has also established strategic agreements with companies such as CATL, NIO, Alibaba, and Baidu. Changan aims to provide L4 autonomous driving volume production in 2025. In 2020, the Company spent ¥4.142 billion on R&D programs.

Geely partnered with Tencent for ICV and it is committed to developing autonomous technology jointly with Volvo

In 2019, ECARX, a strategically invested enterprise under Geely Holding Group, signed a cooperative agreement with Tencent; to jointly collaborate on intelligent connectivity services, joint user operations, AI, and cloud services. Currently, Tencent automotive applications have been successfully integrated into several Geely Auto and Lynk & Co models.

In June 2016, Volvo and Geely stated that they intended to deepen co-operation in driverless technologies and connectivity. Volvo has announced that it will move directly to SAE Level 4 autonomy from Level 2. It is expected that Geely will follow the same path. The company has tried to apply pressure to the Chinese government to open the high-definition mapping market, to accelerate AV development.

2. ADAS Portfolio & Technology Capabilities: Winner-Geely

SAE Level 2-ADAS fitment in new car sales in 2020: Winner-Geely

Regarding the fitment of Level 2 features, according to our analysis in the end of 2020:

•  37% of Changan’s models in China feature L2-Cruising and 32% feature L2-Parking
•  68% of Geely’s models in China are equipped with L2-Cruising and 56% L2-Parking

In the end of 2020, 37% of Changan’s models featured L2-Cruising and 32% L2-Parking

• Changan offers L2 Traffic Jam Assist in the CS55, CS75, CS85 and the Qushang X7; L3 Traffic Jam Pilot in UNI-T;
• L2 Self-Parking, is available in 7 of 22 models; L3 Remote Valet Parking with auto-learning park pilot is providing in UNI-T, CS75 Petrol version, CS 95 and Qushang X7;
• From 2018, Changan new models started featuring the more integrated Adaptive Cruise Assist, which is capable of highway assistance, therefore a L2-Cruise Assist;
• From 2020, CS 75 Plus, CS 85 Coupe and UNI-T. incorporate the networked operating system Tinove OS, developed by Wutong Auto;
• The vehicles under Oushang brand, are equipped with Huawei’s Hicar intelligent in-car operating system;

In the end of 2020, 68% of Geely’s models in China feature Level 2-Cruising and 56% L2-Parking features

• Geely’s G-Pilot 2.0 system offers driving functions such as full-speed Adaptive Cruise Control (ACC), Lane Centring Assist (ICC) and Lane keep Assist (LKA) that combined are capable of providing L2 autonomous driving experience;
• Geely’s vehicles equipped with G Pilot 2.0 can provide L2 parking functions; the Automated Park Assist system (APA) helps the driver to park or even automatically park the vehicle itself;
• Xingyue, Geely’s flagship SUV, is equipped with G-Pilot 4, the highest level of Geely’s autonomous driving technical route;
• The Binyue (Coolray) model performs L2 high-speed Autonomous Braking. In more detail, by integrating 1.2 million monocular camera and 77 GHz millimetre wave radar, the Binyue’s Pre-Crash Safety system can identify pedestrians and vehicles in front within a speed range of 5-150km/h and actively brake and decelerate the vehicle.

ADAS sensor technology for Level 2-Self & Remote Parking

Geely’s Xingyue comes with L2-Parking 5G-enabled, completely unmanned automated valet system

Within a 200-metre area such as a parking lot, the parking system enables the Xingyue to drive 100% on its own, search for parking spaces, park itself; or pick up the vehicle user within a 200-metre area. To accomplish the fully autonomous parking function, the system integrates 12 ultrasonic radars, 5 millimetre wave radars, 4 HD surround view cameras, 1 monocular camera, 1 dashcam, 1 interior camera, and 24 environmental sensors.

Changan’s UNI-T is equipped with APA 5.0 remote control valet parking system, IACC, and an AI chip developed by Horizon Robotics

APA 5.0 parking system integrates 4 HD wide-angle cameras (360° view) and front/rear parking radars to enable the vehicle to realize horizontal parking, vertical and diagonal parking, find a parking space within 20m, enter the parking space and complete the parking process automatically. The car owner can also use the mobile phone APP to carry out one-key remote parking. The system integrates ultrasonic radar and high-definition camera data to identify parking spaces, vehicles, pedestrians, obstacles, etc., and has an emergency braking function. 

Changan’s UNI-T is the first model to feature an AI chip and AI vision developed by Horizon Robotics, The Horizon’s SoC technology integrates a deep learning processing unit engine (BPU), an ARM CPU sub-system and a dedicated Image Signal Processor (ISP), to enable object detection, object classification and pixel-level semantic segmentation.

3. Market leadership in Level 2 car sales volume in China: Winner-Geely

Geely claims they are a leader in Lv.2 car sales in China

In 2019, Geely achieve the production of L2 level autonomous drive capable vehicles, according to their press release. They announcement claimed that “L2 leader in China in terms of adoption. In the first four months of 2019, Geely Auto has sold over 450,000 vehicles equipped with Level 2 technologies”. We estimate that Geely’s Level 2-equipped cars amounted to 601,235 in 2020 vs. 549,093 for Changan.

Read More

• 30 Carmaker Roadmaps in Automated Driving by 2025
• Chinese Carmaker’s ADAS Benchmarking: BAIC, BYD, Changan, Chery, FAW, GAC, Geely, Great Wall, NIO, SAIC    
• SAIC, Great Wall and Changan lead Chinese Level 3 Autonomous Parking
• 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

• BYD, Changan, Great Wall, Geely, and SAIC have already introduced Self-Parking capabilities that rival the likes of Audi, BMW, Mercedes-Benz and Tesla
• Chinese Carmakers leverage their strategic partnerships with foreign OEMs and domestic tech pioneers to fast-track deployment of autonomous parking capabilities

1. SAIC’s Roewe Marvel X and Marvel equipped with Lv.3 “Full-scene Automated Valet Parking”

Availability: Roewe’s BEV SUV Marvel X and its successor Marvel R are currently the only models under the Roewe brand that provide SAE Level 3- Self-learning parking capabilities.

Marvel X’s successor Marvel R also enables parking functions above L2 level. The pure electric SUV integrates Luminar’s Lidar technology to provide vision fusion fully automatic parking. Marvel R is also equipped with Huawei Balong 5000 5G chip that enables 5G/V2X communications, and Mobileye’s EyeQ4H core chip, among other intelligent driving systems.

The brand’s RX5 eMax and iMax 8 are equipped with SAE Level-2 APA automatic parking system.

Other ADAS features: Marvel X enables semi-autonomous driving capabilities of L2 by providing full-speed ACC (0 to 150 km/h), Lane Change Assist, Traffic Jam Assist, ICA highway assist and emergency braking, among other driving features.

2. Great Wall Motor’s ORA “Good Cat” with Lv.3 full-scene Automatic Parking

During the parking process, the vehicle can automatically complete the horizontal, vertical, oblique, slope and horizontal angle of less than 10% of the scene parking space. The system also provides AI point-to-point memory parking by integrating visual SLAM and ultrasonic radar to memorize and learn commonly used parking spaces and driving routes, and ultimately builds its own regional map.

Availability: GWM’s pure electric ORA Haomao, which means ‘Good Cat”.

3. Changan’s Auto Remote control Valet Parking system in UNI-T series

Availability: Changan’s UNI-T series.

Other ADAS: In addition, equipped with IACC integrated adaptive cruise system and Traffic Jam Assist, Changan’s SUV can realize L2+ automatic driving functions. UNI-T, the first model of the brand-new sequence “Gravity”, integrates “Journey II” car-level AI chip and AI vision developed by Horizon Robotics, in order to identify the scene-based needs of the drivers and provide corresponding services.

4. Geely’s Xingyue with FOTA and 5G Autonomous Valet Parking

Xingyue is equipped with G-Pilot 4, the highest level of Geely’s autonomous driving technical route; that offers intelligent parking capabilities, mobility services and L2+autonomous driving functions, such as intelligent travel pilot (ICC), full-speed ACC, TJA, LCA and in specific Geely models high-speed autonomous emergency braking (AEB CUI high speed).

5. BYD’s DiLink3.0 intelligent driving assistant system

Availbility: BYD’s flagship pure-eclectic sedan HAN was the first model equipped with DiLink3.0 system; currently 7 BYD’s models –Han series, Tang series and Song Plus DM-i – are equipped with DiLink3.0.

Han is currently the only model in BYD’s fleet that is capable of achieving parking functions above L2; approximately 67% of total BYD’s models are below L1 autonomous parking.

Auto2x

HAN can provide full-scenario automated parking with remote control capabilities. BYD plans to install the DiLink3.0 system in more of its existing models in order to close the existing gap in its parking technology deployment.

Read more

• 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race
• 21% of new cars to be highly-automated in 2025
• Level 3-Autonomous regulation finally coming after 3 years of delay
• TOP-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving
• 5 new models with Partial & Conditional automation coming up

Read our report “30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025″, to learn more about the ADAS feature capabilities of major carmakers and their future roadmaps. For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

• The current number of electric car charging piles is relatively low compared to the government’s initial goal of 4 million stations in 2020
• In the coming years, charging network availability may be of greater importance than the actual EV price
• Heavy investment by public companies, energy providers and automakers aims to tackle the inefficient distribution of charging infrastructure in China
• China’s tech giants seek to monetize the gains from the continuous NEVs deployment and the emerging Autonomous Driving technologies

China’s Electric Car charging infrastructure is struggling to keep up with the growing demand for NEVs

According to the same source, the vehicle-to-charging point ratio across all the country is 3.5:1, while in the mega-cities like Beijing and Shanghai the ratio is substantially better, 1.5:1 and 1.2:1 respectively. Among public charging polls, fast-charging (FC) points count for 309,000, an approximately 12:1 ratio nationwide (i.e. one FC poll for every twelve EVs).

EV penetration is expected to grow up to 10%-12% of new vehicle sales, or greater, by 2023, according to China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT). The “Energy-saving and New Energy Vehicle Technology Roadmap 2.0” released by SAE China in collaboration with MIIT, predicts that the NEVs share will reach 40% by 2030 and over 50% by 2035.

EVCIPA estimates that 50,000 public charging piles and 300,000 private piles will be deployed annually in the following years.

The investment cost of public charging piles will be ¥ 50,000 and the investment cost of private ones will be ¥25,000. EVCIPA estimates that the investment scale will reach ¥90 billion in 2025.

EVCIPA

The Economics of Electric Car Charging Infrastructure

EV price-parity with conventional ICE cars is likely to take place between 2026 and 2029 in China, as large economies of scale in EV production and improvements in battery costs enhance automakers expectations and thus boost EV mass production. ICCT predicts that by 2030 battery pack costs will drop from the current ¥0.90/Wh to ¥0.4/Wh).

Nevertheless, an essential key for achieving cost parity with conventional ICE vehicles, especially regarding short-range BEVs (i.e range up to 250 km), would be the expansion of the current electric car charging infrastructure network.

Current charging piles deployment is relatively low compared to the government initial goal for approximately 4 million charging piles in 2020. This is mainly attributed to the high density of the Chinese cities and the lack of the spaces required for charging spots installation. In addition, the relatively insufficient vehicle-to-charging point ratio in China’s less populated regions (the public charging utilization ratio falls in some cases below 6%) implies an imbalanced distribution of charging piles triggered by insufficient charging infrastructure investment in these territories.

Substantial investment by the state and private players aim to tackle the “infrastructure bottleneck”

“StateGrid announced a ¥ 2.7 billion ($380 million) investment in 2020 to set up 78,000 charging piles across the country, while China Southern Power Grid (CSG) announced plans to invest more than ¥ 25 billion (about $3.48 billion) for the completion of 150 large-scale centralized charging stations and 380,000 charging piles, in the four following years.”

StateGrid

BP’s Strategy

BP’s strategy in the EV charging business indicates that the energy giant demonstrates the importance of building a strong position as an electric car charging provider as mobility becomes more electrified and shared. 

• BP acquired Chargemaster in the UK in 2018
• Recently they acquired a 33.3% share of the Daimler-BMW joint venture ChargeNow in Europe.
• BP invested in NIO Capital in 2018 to fund NEV ecosystem new ventures,
• BP also invested in PowerShare, a company that provides a connection to multiple charging point operators.
• In 2019, Didi Chuxing (“DiDi”) and BP, announced that they have agreed to form a new joint venture to build electric vehicle (EV) charging infrastructure in China.

Beyond “pure charging installation” the management of wide charging networks is crucial for charging infrastructure deployment

In general, vast amounts of data obtained by EV users through the cloud and digital platforms can provide information about customer preferences similar to the information obtained by smartphone usage that led to the previous decade “e-commerce boom”.

In the charging-business field, analyzing EV-user’s behaviour is not only important for the charging infrastructure providers and the EV manufacturers but is also crucial for the power grid management and the efforts related to energy grid load demand optimization. In this direction, several players in the business prioritize the development of cloud-based platforms in order to provide a connection between charging points and enhance their users experience in charging delivery.

CSG’s platform “Shunyi Charging” has more than 500,000 registered active users per day, while State Grid’s number of registered users exceeds 3 million and covers more than 85% of the public charging piles nationwide“. 

Monetize gains from smart technologies deployment in EV growing numbers lures tech-giants

An increasing number of tech giants and car-makers are racing to develop smart electric vehicles in China’s booming NEV market. Huawei collaborates with various Chinese automakers including BAIC and BYD, while Alibaba – an early investor in electric vehicle manufacturer Xpeng – has formed an EV joint venture with SAIC. Another Chinese automaker Geely has recently partnered with tech-giant Baidu in order to develop intelligent EVs, while Didi Chuxing – the major Chinese ride-hailing player – has partnered with automaker BYD in the development of all-electric D1 vehicles.

In March, Xiaomi announced plans to invest $10 billion in the following years in order to develop its own smart-electric vehicle, while another smartphone manufacturer, Oppo, plans to venture into the automotive sector according to recent media reports.

Tech-giants experience in software and hardware integration is able to give them a “built-in” advantage in applying smart technologies in new electric vehicles. Besides valuable gains from the vast amounts of generated data, EV’s mass deployment could be tech-giants’s first step in order to leverage their smart-tech knowledge in the next generation autonomous vehicles.

Read more

• Barriers in EV Charging Infrastructure to Turn California Green
• 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race

To learn about Carmakers’ strategies, market positioning and leadership in Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure, as well as electrification of MaaS read our report “Carmakers’ Competitiveness in Smart Mobility“.

Technology Partnerships in Autonomous Driving for Lidar-based Level 3, Software-defined cars

1. SAIC-Luminar Tech partnership for Lidar (March 2021)

Luminar has already built a strong supply chain base with leading carmakers to install its lidars. Luminar has partnerships with Volvo to provide lidar for the SPA-2 based cars coming in 2022 with Level 4-Highway Pilot. The company teamed up with the ex-Audi AID, now Argo AI in Dec’18 for forward-looking Lidar.

What to expect next: Chinese brands are leveraging partnerships to deploy Level 3 and Level 4 Autonomous Driving in China. Auto2x expects vehicles equipped with Level 3-Driving features in China to account for 6% of new car sales in China in 2025 or 2.3 million cars. SAIC will follow BAIC, Changan and Chery among Chinese carmakers to offer Level 3+ Automated Driving by 2025 which allows drivers to take their eyes off the road on specific highways and perform side tasks where the system controls driving function. But they must always be available to take over vehicle control- since they are (by definition) the ultimate backup.

2. Denso collaborates with lidar-developer Aeva (January 2021)

What to expect next: Aeva followed a number of LiDAR startups to IPOs (AEye, Luminar, Ouster and Innoviz. and Velodyne) and was recently listed on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker symbol, “AEVA”.

Aeva is engaged with 30 of the top OEM and automotive industry players in the advanced driver assistance and autonomous driving industries, has received strategic investments from Porsche SE, the majority shareholder of VW Group, and has relationships with some of the largest Tier 1 automotive suppliers.

Aeva

3. Toyota’s Woven Planet partners with Apex.AI (April 2021)

What to expect next: The transition from hardware-defined vehicles to software-defined vehicles is crucial for automakers. “Software is now a prime value driver in the product development portfolio of automakers”, according to a recent McKinsey report.

4. Daimler’s Torc Robotics selects Amazon as its cloud provider for self-driving trucks (February 2021)

“We believe this relationship between Torc and AWS brings together two very strong teams and is another milestone on our road to Level 4 trucks”

Dr. Peter Vaughan Schmidt, Head of Daimler Trucks’ Autonomous Technology Group

Partnerships in Electrification & Sustainability

5. Daimler Trucks & Volvo Group launch Hydrogen Truck Joint Venture “CellCentric” (April 2021)

Partnerships like cellcentric are vital to our commitment to decarbonizing road transport.

Martin Lundstedt, CEO of Volvo Group

What comes next: A number of technological and commercial barriers restrict the adoption of Hydrogen in Trucks today but the industry is working on tackling them. The production cost of Green Hydrogen (from renewable resources), the cost of vehicles, the storage and distribution (refuelling infrastructure) are among the key challenges for the commercialization of the technology. Daimler and Volvo call for a “harmonized EU hydrogen policy framework to support the technology in becoming a viable commercial solution”.

6. Baidu collaborates with Geely for smart EVs by 2024 (January 2021)

7. Mercedes−Benz & Siemens partner for digital and sustainable automotive production (March 2021)

In the future, e-mobility components will also be assembled in Berlin. The company wants to secure the future for the Berlin plant, which is the oldest site in the Mercedes-Benz global powertrain production network.

Mercedes-Benz

Partnerships in Shared Mobility and Robotaxis

8. Mobileye partners with Silicon Valley startup Udelv (April 2021)

9. Toyota, Aurora And Denso Partner to Develop Robotaxis (February 2021)

10. Microsoft’s Azure cloud platform will power GM Cruise’s robotaxis (January 2021)

Read more

• The 12 most important technology partnerships in Connected & Automated Driving in 2020
• Five New Revenue Pools for Automated Mobility

To learn more about competition and market developments in the next decade read our reports

• 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025.
• ADAS Suppliers Rankings & market shares 2015-20
• “Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car” report portfolio

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

• The Golden State faces barriers in electric vehicle charging infrastructure which might delay its goal of 1.5 million zero-emission vehicles on state roads by 2025
• California leads the “race between the states” in public investments in EV charging infrastructure but private players have to explore new streams of earnings
• California aims to set a Fast Charging (DC) inlet Standard in order to address the rising complexity

California’s plan to scale EV Charging Infrastructure to meet the 2025 ZEV goal

Tesla sold nearly 84,000 vehicles in California as of 2020, while Chevrolet and Toyota followed with smaller sales proportions.

Following California’s ZEV action plan, authorities plan to put 1.5 million ZEVs on state roads by 2025 and at least 5 million zero-emission vehicles by 2030. Regarding ZEV’s adoption through 2030, California’s Air Resources Board (CARB) 2030 Strategy Scenario and CEC’s 2020 energy demand forecast, indicated that over 2.2 million zero-emission vehicles are expected to hit California roads by 2025.

As ZEV prices decline, shared public charging infrastructure will be increasingly critical for the wider adoption of Electric cars

Back in 2019, a study conducted by the Harris Poll on behalf of Volvo Cars, indicated that public charging availability is crucial for EV’s development – in the years to come the growth in the EV market will increasingly depend on driver confidence in charging infrastructure. According to the study, while almost 50% of the ZEV’s drivers choose to charge their vehicles at the public stations, more than one-third of them (36%) found the experience of using public charging stations as time-consuming.

The gap in charging infrastructure may obstruct the State’s progress toward 2030 ZEV goal 

According to California Public Utilities Commission, the state is currently on the road to achieving the goal of 1.5 million ZEVs on state roads by 2025 but is behind in providing the charging infrastructure needed to support the growing EV population.

As of late 2020, California had nearly 67,000 public and shared chargers installed, including over 5,000 direct fast chargers. Projected installations of public and private Level 2 and DC Fast Chargers are expected to reach nearly 189,000 by 2025 according to the California Energy Commission, leaving a gap of almost 61,000 chargers in order to meet the 2025 charger goal.

Financing the expansion of EV charging infrastructure in California

Biden’s call for massive investment and the current (public and private) investment status in California

President Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure plan includes a $174 billion investment in order to promote EV deployment and install 500,000 charging stations across the U.S. by 2030. Concerning the current status of investment, California State is leading the state race of charging infrastructure deployment.

The California Energy Commission’s Clean Transportation Program has invested almost $200 million in public and private charging infrastructure over the past 10 years, while CALeVIP continues to fund incentives for EV charger installations.  Additionally, in Jul.2020, the California Public Utilities Commission approved a $436 million program that will deploy approximately 40,000 charging stations for electric vehicles in Southern California.

The need for new revenue streams: 2 paradigms, Smart charging and bi-directional charging are two paradigms

Beyond the traditional revenue model (i.e. mark up the retail price of electricity for charging purposes), charging infrastructure development requires new business models that can potentially expand the revenue streams and diversify charging-business for the EVSE suppliers.

Smart Charging uses a cloud-based energy management system that is capable of optimizing the existing charging infrastructure for electric vehicles. ChargeForward, a “smart-charging” pilot program launched by BMW and Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), offers to all BMW EV drivers in Northern and Central California incentives for maximizing the integration of renewable energy when they charge their cars during recommended hours. Drivers are able to use BMW ConnectedDrive and ChargeForward apps, in order to fulfill their smart charging requests.

Bi-directional charging allows cars to store and discharge power from their battery packs, usually in the context of vehicle-to-grid (V2G) systems that integrate EVs with the power grid. The all-electric Ford F-150 will provide bidirectional charging capabilities, while the Lucid Air developed by Lucid Motors offers full bi-directional charging for Vehicle-to-Everything (V2X), Vehicle-to-Grid (V2G) and Vehicle-to-Vehicle (V2V) features.

Standardization of Fast Charging (DC) inlets by 2026 become crucial

As more and more carmakers contemplate intelligent charging solutions, standardization of charging inlets will be a key prerequisite for the development of charging infrastructure. The lack of standardization among charging inlets -and particularly FC inlets- increases rapidly the barriers to establishing a functional charging network. The current split of DC chargers among three designs -CCS, CHAdeMO, and Tesla- causes complexity issues in terms of drivers uncertainty (i.e. finding a compatible connector) and the EVSE suppliers ‘ infrastructure plans.

California’s Air Resources Board (CARB) has recently announced that by 2026, all light-duty EV vehicles with fast-charging capability in California should be compatible with the CCS connector.

CARB

In its 2020 analysis, CARB foresees that by the end of 2022,  51 of the 59 BEVs in California will use the CCS inlet. In this context, Nissan has recently announced that it would be equipping the new Ariya electric crossover with a CCS connector, rather than the CHAdeMO inlet.

Read more

• Free-Floating Car-Sharing Fuels Growth to the German market
• Online Car Purchases On The Rise In The U.S

To learn about Carmakers’ strategies, market positioning and leadership in Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure, as well as electrification of MaaS read our report “Carmakers’ Competitiveness in Smart Mobility“.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and a full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562.

• E-Commerce vehicle sales rise year-on-year as the pandemic reshapes consumer attitude to “digital-first”
• More Carmakers Copy Tesla’s Online Car Purchase Playbook

Online car purchases fueled by e-commerce rise, enabling tech for a better shopping experience & COVID-19 impact

The pandemic is pushing carmakers and auto dealerships to rethink their digital retail channels and accelerate their online e-commerce offerings to enable more consumers to purchase cars online.

“By the end of this year, you’re going to see 80%-90% of U.S. new car dealers with full e-commerce capability in their shops” to handle everything online but the test drive and — maybe — the final signature”

Rhett Ricart, the former chairman of the National Auto Dealers Association (NADA)

Understanding the challenges and the purchasing criteria of today’s connected customer

But the challenges and the purchasing criteria of today’s connected customer differ from the previous times. Product specification, device interoperability, Connectivity, Content/service availability affect personalised shopping experiences. In this direction, major carmakers are collaborating recently with digital retail providers in order to digitalise their sales platform (and/or their dealerships platforms) and enhance consumer’s accessibility to purchasing vehicles online.

A recent example is Tekion’s EV-focused retail software for GM’s dealers. Tekion will provide GM dealers with its retail management software that will make it easier to purchase a Chevy, Cadillac, Buick or GMC brand electric vehicle. According to the company’s announcement, the new Tekion software can process a large portion of a vehicle transaction online, making it simple for customers to search for and buy an EV. GM, alongside Renault-Nissan and BMW, was an early investor in Tekion, which is now valued at over $1 billion.

Enabling Technology: Digital & mobile-first, AR/VR

Competition in Online Car Purchase Business model

In the US, one of the largest car and online sales markets globally, the number of automakers that provide sales through their own digital retail platform is relatively low. Major automakers such as Daimler, Hyundai, BMW, Peugeot, Porsche and Citroen among others have already created sales platforms on their official websites in order to sell their vehicles online. But the vast majority of them involve active dealership participation in almost every aspect of shopping procedure – from vehicle pricing based on existing demand and existing inventory in stock to the signature and the delivery of the purchased vehicle.

Tesla has a substantial lead over Ford and GM, even though lately the two auto giants have made moves in Tesla’s direction.

Tesla is targeting direct online car purchases and service, not franchised dealerships

Tesla continues to adjust its retail operations and product offerings (deliveries to customers’ homes and workplaces, touchless deliveries etc.) in order to optimize customer experience.

“We are targeting with Model 3 and Model Y, a global mass demographic with a broad range of potential customers” .

Tesla’s Annual Report, 2020

FCA Group enhances Online Retailing Experience

FCA has built a digital retail platform that allows customers to complete the entire vehicle purchasing process online, including pricing information, options for financial lending, e-signature and in some cases home delivery. E-Shop is accessible through the Chrysler, Dodge, Jeep, Ram, Fiat and Alfa Romeo websites.

“Shop, Click, Drive” provided by General Motors, aiming to boost the online purchase cycle

“Shop, Click, Drive” allows users to obtain certain GM vehicles (Buicks, Chevrolets and GMCs) through GM’s dealership network and complete a portion of the transaction online. The service became particularly popular in the wake of the pandemic- according to GM’s announcement dealers have seen a five-fold increase in the number of sales leads they are getting from the “Shop. Click. Drive” service.

Mustang Mach-E retail platform for online car purchases

Ford’s online platform enables Mustang Mach-E orders: By this application, Ford enables customers to create their preferred vehicle configuration of Mustang E and complete their payment online. Additionally, Ford has recently launched a new digital platform for used-vehicle sales, branded Ford Blue Advantage.

Read more

• Free-Floating Car-Sharing Fuels Growth to the German market

To learn about Carmakers’ strategies, market positioning and leadership in MaaS read our report “Carmakers’ Competitiveness in Smart Mobility“.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and a full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562.

Car-Sharing in Germany bounced back in 2021. Both the number of customers and fleets are increasing steadily in Germany.

The evolution of Germany’s car-sharing market is a key metric for the rate of consumer transition from car ownership to Mobility-as-a-Service in Western Europe’s leading car market and one of the top hubs for autonomous, electrified and shared mobility. It also paves the way to the future of mobility with Robo-taxis, Robo-shuttles, aggregate mobility providers and Urban Air Mobility.

The successful execution of leading carmakers’ Smart Mobility strategies in their domestic market is crucial as they cannot afford to miss out on the new revenue pools against new Mobility Service Providers.

The evolution of Germany’s car-sharing market

Germany’s car market was hit hard by the pandemic, with new car sales down by 19.1% in 2020 according to ACEA.

To capture how COVID-19 might have reshaped consumer sentiment towards car ownership and the use of mobility services, a survey by LeasePlan unveiled that 60% of the respondents in the country intends to buy or lease a new car in the next 5 years. Almost all respondents in Germany have access to a car by the end of 2020.

LeasePlan

Car-sharing subscribers rebounded in Q1 2021, while the vehicle fleet continued to grow

Similarly to the hurdles Germany’s auto market faced in 2020, the domestic car sharing market witnessed a slowdown in 2019 but managed to rebound quickly at the beginning of 2021. As of January 2021, there were 2.874.400 registered customers across 228 car-sharing schemes in Germany’s 855 cities and municipalities according to BMWI.

In 2020, the number of subscribers contracted by 6.9% to 2.29 million year-on-year but Q1 2021 saw a positive trajectory up by 25.5% y-y. The disruption in growth was attributed to the drop in the number of users of Free-Floating services in 2020 as compared to the year before, but the first few months of 2021 saw users return to car-sharing.

Germany’s Car-Sharing market rebounded in 2021

• The number of customers in Germany has more than doubled in the last 5 years, recording a CAGR of 16% between 2016 and 2020;
• Free-Floating services account for the largest share in both vehicle fleet and customers of car-sharing schemes in Germany;
• The Car-Sharing fleet in Germany grew with 26% AGR in 2020 recording a CAGR of 12% between 2016 and 2020;

Free-floating car-sharing accounts for the highest share in both users and vehicle fleet

In the free-floating car-sharing market segment, the number of users rose by 36.1% in the first three months of 2021 compared to 2020 reaching 2,150,300 users. Free-floating car sharing, in which the vehicle is picked up using a smartphone app from where the last customer left it, is growing on the existing space, mainly in the large metropolitan regions, such as Berlin and Munich. Free-floating providers offer car-sharing services in a total of seven large cities and the metropolitan areas around them. As for 2020, there were no new locations added.

e-Car sharing penetration rose to 19% in 2021

The share of battery-electric vehicles and plug-in hybrids in the German car sharing fleet is, as of Jan. 21, roughly at 19%. All alternative drives (battery electric, hybrid, plug-in, hydrogen fuel cell, gas hydrogen) combined made up around a quarter of new registrations in 2020.

Nevertheless, in the national car fleet the proportion of emission-free vehicles stay relatively law, only 1.2 percent (0.5% in 2019). The take-up of electric vehicles has been slow in Germany compared to many other European markets (i.e. Norway & Netherlands) despite huge government incentives.

Electric car penetration in Germany, which include Battery Electric Vehicles (BEV), Plug-in Hybrids (PHEV) and Fuel-Cell vehicles (FCV), accounted for 14% of new car sales in 2020, according to ACEA.

Carmakers Vs. emerging competition

The number of car-sharing businesses, cooperatives and associations has remained fairly stable in 2020 as compared to 2019 to 288 schemes. Germany’s top carmakers are particularly active in car-sharing in their domestic market, particularly BMW, Daimler and VW Group through their Joint-Ventures and subsidiaries.

The Free-Floating car-sharing market is dominated by the four large providers ShareNow (a JV between Daimler and BMW), Miles, Sixt and WeShare (Provided by VW Group).

Share Now is a Free-floating car-sharing service. In 2020, around 2.9 million customers used the SHARE NOW car-sharing services, which are available in 16 cities and eight countries. The car-sharing fleet currently comprises around 9,500 vehicles, almost one-quarter of which are electrically powered

Daimler with Car2Go has been a leader in B2C Car-sharing and in 2019 announced a deeper strategy shift to focus on mobility with its restructuring. Also, it has announced an alliance with BMW Group to merge their mobility services business units and offer customers a single source of urban mobility. Each company holds 50% of the new joint venture.

VW’s WeShare is now available in Berlin and it recently expanded to Hamburg.

Paving the way to robo-taxis & Urban Air Mobility

Robo-taxis hold strong potential to revolutionize mobility. For carmakers, Robo-taxis present significant opportunities, such as amortizing the cost of the sensor set needed for higher autonomy before they can be brought into series production for private cars.

Apart from the automotive industry, a series of industries will experience the benefits of Autonomous Mobility in terms of cost savings and new revenue opportunities. For example, carmakers and mobility providers could see revenues from autonomous car-sharing and ride-sharing grow rapidly as well as from private car ownership due to the transformed role of the car as the “3rd living space” due to increasing productivity.

…”Station-based and free-floating carsharing leads to a reduction of private cars but to different degrees (DriveNow 7%; Flinkster 15%). The shedding of cars is influenced by the frequency of use of carsharing and the increasing membership of station-based carsharing providers”.

The Impact of Carsharing on Car Ownership in German Cities (2016)

Finally, Urban Air Mobility, which offers a new way to commute to work and transport goods using electric vertical take-off and landing aircraft (eVTOLs), is expected to be launched soon in German cities by players such as Munich-based start-up Lilium and Daimler-backed Volocopter.

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To learn about Carmakers’ strategies, market positioning and leadership in MaaS read our report “Carmakers’ Competitiveness in Smart Mobility“.

For more information on this report, including sample pages and a full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562.

• Cloud-based development of ADAS promises scalability, efficiency, security, and staying always up to date to guarantee that today’s systems will mitigate future accidents in the ever-changing road environment
• Data-driven and Software-defined cars and Mobility Services could see accelerated deployment by 2025
• The role of Cloud computing providers is increasing

4 benefits of Cloud-based platforms for ADAS development

By 2030, 67% of vehicles sold globally will have at least level 2 and 3 autonomous driving capability. One quarter will have level 4 and under 5% will have level 5 full automation capabilities.

1. Up-to-date and robust models to mitigate future accidents after SOP

Cloud and OTA-based architecture can provide augmented robustness to traditional validation of ADAS and higher-quality ADAS models by identifying and rectifying failures after SOP with SW patches. Data generated from radars, cameras lidars, and other embedded smart devices can be processed using cloud platforms and the improvements can be used immediately.

2. Software for ADAS is becoming increasingly complex

Vehicle-to-Cloud-based ADAS can simplify the development of automated driving functions by managing accumulating data volumes such as traffic data from vehicles and simulation data.

3. ADAS must be developed in ever shorter cycles

ADAS Sensor data can be processed using cloud-based platforms to enhance the efficiency, safety and security of self-driving vehicles.

4. V2X will rely heavily on cloud-based computing

Vehicle-to-Cloud (V2C)-based ADAS can achieve safe and secure data exchange between OEMS, suppliers and others.

Leveraging a Digital twin for Vehicle-to-cloud (V2C)-based ADAS

Carmakers are already starting to work with cloud computing providers for a variety of application segments—including software development platforms and SaaS. I believe this trend will continue and accelerate in the next decade.

• Amazon Web Services holds a strong position in this domain counting Lyft, TuSimple, HERE, Toyota Research Institute, and nuTonomy among its clients. In Feb’21, Torc Robotics, Daimler Truck’s subsidiary, announced the selection of Amazon Web Services (AWS), Inc. as its preferred cloud provider to handle the scale and speed needed for data transfer, storage, and compute capacity as the company prepares to deploy its fleet of L4 test trucks in New Mexico and Virginia.
• Microsoft Azure is also being used by carmakers such as VW (Feb’21), Ford, and Cruise (Jan’21) among others.
• Other notable players include IBM, Google, Alibaba, Tencent, Dell, Harman, and HERE.

Read more

1. Five New Revenue Pools for Automated Mobility
2. Three Takeaways from Top Suppliers’ ADAS Revenues in 2020
3. 21% of new cars to be highly-automated in 2025
4. Top-12 technology partnerships in Connected & Automated Driving in 2020
5. TOP-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving

Read our reports to understand the strategies of major Suppliers in ADAS sensors, AD platforms as well as collaborations. Our reports also provide an in-depth analysis of how the regulatory framework affects the OEM strategy for Level 3 deployment.

• 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025.
• ADAS Suppliers Rankings & market shares 2015-20
• Auto2x Perspectives: Automated Driving 2025
• “Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car” report portfolio

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

• ADAS sensors and ADAS features account for the majority of Automated Mobility’s revenues today for carmakers, suppliers, and other stakeholders
• In the next decades, the progress in Automated Driving technology and its wider adoption will unlock new earnings from novel “features”, and the expansion to new markets, and 8 new industries
• Winning strategies will leverage software & AI as well as control over the software value chain to offset downward pressure from less-differentiated, low-cost platforms

The shift to a new Software-based revenue model for Automated Mobility in the 2020s

Today, sales of front-facing cameras, forward-looking radars, and ultrasonic sensors for Autonomous-Emergency Braking, Lane-Departure Warning, and parking maneuvers dominate ADAS sales for carmakers and major suppliers.

Two reasons why Emerging markets are key to fuel growth in Autonomous Mobility revenues

Developed markets will lead Autonomous Driving revenues for the near to short terms driven by the expertise of domestic players and more favorable consumer adoption. Today, emerging markets face issues with connected infrastructure and the cost of technology which restrict the deployment of even basic ADAS, let alone autonomous driving adoption.

Cost savings & revenue potential in 8 new industries

Apart from the automotive industry, a series of industries will experience the benefits of Autonomous Mobility in terms of cost savings and new revenue opportunities. For example, carmakers and mobility providers could see revenues from autonomous ride-sharing grow rapidly as well as from private car ownership due to the transformed role of the car as the “3rd living space” due to increasing productivity.

Read more

1. Three Takeaways from Top Suppliers’ ADAS Revenues in 2020
2. Carmakers see revenues shrink by $130Bn threatening autonomous roadmaps
3. 21% of new cars to be highly-automated in 2025
4. Top-12 technology partnerships in Connected & Automated Driving in 2020
5. TOP-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving
6. Top 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race
7. New Regulation for Lv.3 Autonomy finally coming in 2021 after 3 years of delays

Read our reports to understand the strategies of major Suppliers in ADAS sensors, AD platforms as well as collaborations. Our reports also provide an in-depth analysis of how the regulatory framework affects the OEM strategy for Level 3 deployment.

• 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025.
• ADAS Suppliers Rankings & market shares 2015-20
• Auto2x Perspectives: Automated Driving 2025
• “Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car” report portfolio

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

• The ADAS market grew in 2020 but how did ADAS revenues evolve in 2020 for major Suppliers?
• What are the key ADAS technologies experiencing strong demand for Suppliers?
• Keys to Top-ADAS Suppliers strategy in 2020-30

1. Top ADAS Suppliers saw ADAS order-book grow in 2020 but revenues dropped

Major Automotive Suppliers are already generating substantial growth from increasing vehicle automation, primarily from radar, camera, and ultrasonics for Level 1 and 2 driver assistance systems which are becoming mandatory across major markets, such as Europe.

The availability of Lv.2-Driving features in Europe, such as Audi’s Adaptive Cruise Assist and Tesla’s Autopilot, grew by 43.3% in 2020 to 139 models to 5.77 million cars, according to Auto2x.

Auto2x assessed that the Top-3 ADAS Suppliers, Continental, Bosch and Valeo, collectively recorded ADAS revenues of €6.13 billion in 2019, up 29.4% from 2018. The majority of these revenues come from the sales of ADAS sensors.

Auto2x

In 2019, Bosch sales of driver assistance systems rose by 12% to around €2 billion. Apart from the leaders, other ADAS suppliers with smaller market shares in ADAS saw a substantial increase in ADAS business in the last 2 years. In 2019, ZF’s Electronics & ADAS division recorded sales of €1,848 million, up 10.9% from 2019 (€1.67 billion), according to their 2019 Annual report. The division accounted for 5% of ZF’s total sales. The main driver for the growth in ADAS was the rising demand for camera-based ADAS.

2020 was a turbulent year for the auto industry causing rippling effects on Suppliers revenues

Bosch, the world’s largest supplier by automotive revenue, saw revenues down by 7.9% in 2020 to€71.6 Billion from €77.7Bn in 2019, according to its preliminary figures.

The pandemic also affected revenues from ADAS despite the growth in ADAS penetration.

The rise in ADAS Lv.1 & Lv.2 launches in 2020 was offset by lower volumes and some delay in the sourcing of ADAS due to the pandemic in H1 2020.

In their latest quarterly sales announcement, Continental said its unit sales of ADAS in Q1-Q3’20 were down year-on-year due to delayed ADAS sourcing.

Valeo’s Comfort & Driving Assistance Systems business group saw sales drop by 12% to €3.23 bn in 2020, from €3.65 bn in 2019.

Auto2x

ADAS order-books experienced mixed results in 2020

2. Supercomputers & Lidar fueled new growth for ADAS Suppliers

ADAS sensors such as cameras and radar for cruising, parking, and safety ADAS still account for the majority of ADAS sales for major Tier-1s. ADAS suppliers introduced new functionalities in 2020, such as Bosch’s new MPC3 video camera with AI-based object detection.

But 2020 also saw new business lines grow in order intake, among them supercomputers and lidar.

• In December 2020 Bosch announced they received more than €2.5 Billion worth of orders for vehicle super-computers for automated driving in 2020. Its central computers have been on the roads since 2019 to reduce the complexity of electronic systems. Bosch expects that vehicle super-computers will become a multi-billion market growing to €20Bn by 2030. The company claims its vehicle computers will increase computing power in vehicles by a factor of 1,000 by the start of the next decade enabling autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity.
• ZF announced new contracts won in Domain ECU (in million units).
• According to the current TOP500 list of the world’s most powerful computer systems, Continental’s new supercomputer occupies the top spot in the automotive industry.

3. Keys to Top-ADAS Suppliers strategy in 2020-30

Improving the capabilities of ADAS sensors and systems will not be enough to maintain a strong position in the Connected & Automated market. In addition to the slowdown caused by the pandemic, the automotive revenue pool moves from hardware to software. According to McKinsey, software’s share in the value of a vehicle will rise from just 10 percent today to 30 percent in the future. 

Suppliers re-organize ADAS segments to strengthen position

Major Automotive Suppliers aim to secure their position as leading providers of automated driving solutions. They are also looking to become providers of Mobility solutions and focus on Software and AI. These forces sparked a strong uptake in the re-organization of ADAS segments of major Suppliers in 2020.

• Bosch: To capitalize on the market opportunity for Automated Driving Software, Bosch created a new division called Cross-Domain Computing Solutions, which started operation in Jan’21. The division pulls together the company’s software experts.
• Continental: New structure started in Jan’20 with the Chassis & Safety division transforming to the Autonomous Mobility & Safety (AMS) under the Automotive Technologies Group
• ZF Group’s structure was adjusted as of January 1, 2019, with the Active & Passive Safety Technology Division divided into three Divisions: Passive Safety Systems, Active Safety Systems, and Electronics and ADAS.

Read more

• Carmakers see revenues shrink by $130Bn threatening autonomous roadmaps
• 21% of new cars to be highly-automated in 2025
• Top-12 technology partnerships in Connected & Automated Driving in 2020
• TOP-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving
• Top 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race
• New Regulation for Lv.3 Autonomy finally coming in 2021 after 3 years of delays

Read our reports to understand the strategies of major Suppliers in ADAS sensors, AD platforms as well as collaborations. Our reports also provide an in-depth analysis of how the regulatory framework affects the OEM strategy for Level 3 deployment.

• 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025.
• ADAS Suppliers Rankings & market shares 2015-20
• Auto2x Perspectives: Automated Driving 2025
• “Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car” report portfolio

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.