• ADAS sensors and ADAS features account for the majority of Automated Mobility’s revenues today for carmakers, suppliers, and other stakeholders
• In the next decades, the progress in Automated Driving technology and its wider adoption will unlock new earnings from novel “features”, and the expansion to new markets, and 8 new industries
• Winning strategies will leverage software & AI as well as control over the software value chain to offset downward pressure from less-differentiated, low-cost platforms

The shift to a new Software-based revenue model for Automated Mobility in the 2020s

Today, sales of front-facing cameras, forward-looking radars, and ultrasonic sensors for Autonomous-Emergency Braking, Lane-Departure Warning, and parking maneuvers dominate ADAS sales for carmakers and major suppliers.

Carmakers will need to continue the investments in ADAS & Autonomous Driving to remain competitive. We assess Lv.0-to-L2+ account for 99% of new car sales across 4 major car markets in 2020 and c.85% by 2025 respectively showcasing the opportunity in driver assistance systems to be the predominant solution for the next decade.

Auto2x

In the 2020s the vehicle’s software value will exceed that of hardware as carmakers shift to more common platforms to achieve cost savings. What’s more, the software will be crucial for product differentiation such as new features, content, and new personalized experiences. The shift of value to software will shape a new Software-based revenue model for Automated Mobility as existing players are forced to shift away from vertically integrated, asset-heavy business models to compete with new entrants. The economics of software are a strong fit for volume OEMs.

Two reasons why Emerging markets are key to fuel growth in Autonomous Mobility revenues

Developed markets will lead Autonomous Driving revenues for the near to short terms driven by the expertise of domestic players and more favorable consumer adoption. Today, emerging markets face issues with connected infrastructure and the cost of technology which restrict the deployment of even basic ADAS, let alone autonomous driving adoption.

Cost savings & revenue potential in 8 new industries

Apart from the automotive industry, a series of industries will experience the benefits of Autonomous Mobility in terms of cost savings and new revenue opportunities. For example, carmakers and mobility providers could see revenues from autonomous ride-sharing grow rapidly as well as from private car ownership due to the transformed role of the car as the “3rd living space” due to increasing productivity.

Strong revenue growth opportunities in Transportation of Goods, AMoD, IoT, Mining, and Media in the long run

Freight transportation could benefit substantially from Conditional and Fully-automated driving in terms of safety, fuel-efficiency, and traffic. The fast adoption of technologies such as platooning could bring immediate benefits to large fleets. In addition, the Mining industry could leverage object detection and recognition of ADAS sensors to drive efficiencies.

Telecom could benefit from the rising need for Connected Cars which demands investment in infrastructure for a broad network and digital services such as location-based services. Lv.3-Conditional Automation will allow drivers to engage in side-tasks while the vehicle is on automated mode which creates opportunities for onboard entertainment, especially video for Media content providers.

Dealers and aftermarket, Auto Insurance, and Car rentals could see opportunities and risks

Finally, the Automotive Aftermarket and car rental industries will be impacted by the rising usage of shared mobility and the proliferation of electric cars but could leverage opportunities in fleet services.

Read more

1. Three Takeaways from Top Suppliers’ ADAS Revenues in 2020
2. Carmakers see revenues shrink by $130Bn threatening autonomous roadmaps
3. 21% of new cars to be highly-automated in 2025
4. Top-12 technology partnerships in Connected & Automated Driving in 2020
5. TOP-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving
6. Top 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race
7. New Regulation for Lv.3 Autonomy finally coming in 2021 after 3 years of delays

Read our reports to understand the strategies of major Suppliers in ADAS sensors, AD platforms as well as collaborations. Our reports also provide an in-depth analysis of how the regulatory framework affects the OEM strategy for Level 3 deployment.

• 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025.
• ADAS Suppliers Rankings & market shares 2015-20
• Auto2x Perspectives: Automated Driving 2025
• “Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car” report portfolio

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

• The ADAS market grew in 2020 but how did ADAS revenues evolve in 2020 for major Suppliers?
• What are the key ADAS technologies experiencing strong demand for Suppliers?
• Keys to Top-ADAS Suppliers strategy in 2020-30

1. Top ADAS Suppliers saw ADAS order-book grow in 2020 but revenues dropped

Major Automotive Suppliers are already generating substantial growth from increasing vehicle automation, primarily from radar, camera, and ultrasonics for Level 1 and 2 driver assistance systems which are becoming mandatory across major markets, such as Europe.

The availability of Lv.2-Driving features in Europe, such as Audi’s Adaptive Cruise Assist and Tesla’s Autopilot, grew by 43.3% in 2020 to 139 models to 5.77 million cars, according to Auto2x.

Auto2x assessed that the Top-3 ADAS Suppliers, Continental, Bosch and Valeo, collectively recorded ADAS revenues of €6.13 billion in 2019, up 29.4% from 2018. The majority of these revenues come from the sales of ADAS sensors.

Auto2x

In 2019, Bosch sales of driver assistance systems rose by 12% to around €2 billion. Apart from the leaders, other ADAS suppliers with smaller market shares in ADAS saw a substantial increase in ADAS business in the last 2 years. In 2019, ZF’s Electronics & ADAS division recorded sales of €1,848 million, up 10.9% from 2019 (€1.67 billion), according to their 2019 Annual report. The division accounted for 5% of ZF’s total sales. The main driver for the growth in ADAS was the rising demand for camera-based ADAS.

2020 was a turbulent year for the auto industry causing rippling effects on Suppliers revenues

Bosch, the world’s largest supplier by automotive revenue, saw revenues down by 7.9% in 2020 to€71.6 Billion from €77.7Bn in 2019, according to its preliminary figures.

The pandemic also affected revenues from ADAS despite the growth in ADAS penetration.

The rise in ADAS Lv.1 & Lv.2 launches in 2020 was offset by lower volumes and some delay in the sourcing of ADAS due to the pandemic in H1 2020.

In their latest quarterly sales announcement, Continental said its unit sales of ADAS in Q1-Q3’20 were down year-on-year due to delayed ADAS sourcing.

Valeo’s Comfort & Driving Assistance Systems business group saw sales drop by 12% to €3.23 bn in 2020, from €3.65 bn in 2019.

Auto2x

ADAS order-books experienced mixed results in 2020

2. Supercomputers & Lidar fueled new growth for ADAS Suppliers

ADAS sensors such as cameras and radar for cruising, parking, and safety ADAS still account for the majority of ADAS sales for major Tier-1s. ADAS suppliers introduced new functionalities in 2020, such as Bosch’s new MPC3 video camera with AI-based object detection.

But 2020 also saw new business lines grow in order intake, among them supercomputers and lidar.

• In December 2020 Bosch announced they received more than €2.5 Billion worth of orders for vehicle super-computers for automated driving in 2020. Its central computers have been on the roads since 2019 to reduce the complexity of electronic systems. Bosch expects that vehicle super-computers will become a multi-billion market growing to €20Bn by 2030. The company claims its vehicle computers will increase computing power in vehicles by a factor of 1,000 by the start of the next decade enabling autonomous driving, electrification, and connectivity.
• ZF announced new contracts won in Domain ECU (in million units).
• According to the current TOP500 list of the world’s most powerful computer systems, Continental’s new supercomputer occupies the top spot in the automotive industry.

3. Keys to Top-ADAS Suppliers strategy in 2020-30

Improving the capabilities of ADAS sensors and systems will not be enough to maintain a strong position in the Connected & Automated market. In addition to the slowdown caused by the pandemic, the automotive revenue pool moves from hardware to software. According to McKinsey, software’s share in the value of a vehicle will rise from just 10 percent today to 30 percent in the future. 

Suppliers re-organize ADAS segments to strengthen position

Major Automotive Suppliers aim to secure their position as leading providers of automated driving solutions. They are also looking to become providers of Mobility solutions and focus on Software and AI. These forces sparked a strong uptake in the re-organization of ADAS segments of major Suppliers in 2020.

• Bosch: To capitalize on the market opportunity for Automated Driving Software, Bosch created a new division called Cross-Domain Computing Solutions, which started operation in Jan’21. The division pulls together the company’s software experts.
• Continental: New structure started in Jan’20 with the Chassis & Safety division transforming to the Autonomous Mobility & Safety (AMS) under the Automotive Technologies Group
• ZF Group’s structure was adjusted as of January 1, 2019, with the Active & Passive Safety Technology Division divided into three Divisions: Passive Safety Systems, Active Safety Systems, and Electronics and ADAS.

Read more

• Carmakers see revenues shrink by $130Bn threatening autonomous roadmaps
• 21% of new cars to be highly-automated in 2025
• Top-12 technology partnerships in Connected & Automated Driving in 2020
• TOP-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving
• Top 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race
• New Regulation for Lv.3 Autonomy finally coming in 2021 after 3 years of delays

Read our reports to understand the strategies of major Suppliers in ADAS sensors, AD platforms as well as collaborations. Our reports also provide an in-depth analysis of how the regulatory framework affects the OEM strategy for Level 3 deployment.

• 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025.
• ADAS Suppliers Rankings & market shares 2015-20
• Auto2x Perspectives: Automated Driving 2025
• “Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car” report portfolio

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

• VW Group, Toyota Motors & General Motors collectively lost $94.38 Billion of revenues in Q1-Q3 2020 and push for further transformation
• Capital constraints faced by carmakers require new strategic approaches in 2021 as the pressure for further investment in autonomy & electrification accelerates
• Software-based business models, such as vehicle super-computers and SW-defined architectures, camera-based ADAS for L2/L2+, lidar and AI are the new value pools for carmakers and suppliers
• Auto2x reports explore winning strategies of carmakers in Autonomous Driving and Automated-Mobility-on-Demand over the next decade to unlock new revenues

Global carmakers face $130 Billion COVID-19 pothole in Q1-Q3 2020 year-on-year

Toyota Motors reclaimed that No.1 spot in global vehicle sales in 2020 but saw a sharp decline in revenues shrink by 18.1% and profit margin cut by half from 7.5% to 3.8% in Q1-Q3 2020 vs. Q1-Q3 2019.

German OEMs VW Group (- €31.13bn in Q1-Q3 2020, -16.7% y-y), Daimler (- €17.93bn, -14.3%) and BMW Group, (- €5.37bn, -7.1%) collectively lost $54.40 Billion in the same period. The 3 German carmakers saw profit margins shrink in 2020 by -1.3% on average.

Renault’s revenue growth by 36.6% in the first nine months of 2020, an increase by €10.55Bn, could not offset Nissan’s losses. Renault has recently announced a new strategy called “Renaulution”,  which “aims to shift Groupe Renault’s strategy from volume to value”, according to the brand.

The Top-8 Suppliers recorded automotive revenue of €250.2 Billion in 2019 but saw revenue drop in 2020

Bosch, Denso & Continental led Suppliers’ Ranking by global Automotive Revenue between in 2019 among ADAS suppliers. Automotive revenue for Bosch, Continental, and ZF shrank in 2019 whereas Hyundai Mobis and Valeo were among those recording revenue hikes. The Top8 Suppliers in ADAS, incl. Bosch, Denso, Continental, Magna, ZF, Hyundai Mobis, Valeo, and Veoneer recorded automotive revenue of €250.2 Billion in 2019, according to Auto2x analysis.

In 2019, Bosch sales of driver assistance systems rose by 12 percent to around 2 billion euros, according to the company. In 2020, Bosch reported revenues of €71.6 Billion, down 7.9% from the year before.

Bosch

To learn about the rankings and market shares of ADAS hardware component suppliers (radar, cameras, Lidar, ultrasonic sensors) by ADAS revenues read our reports.

Software, ADAS & Autonomous Driving and AI create new revenue pools for Carmakers

EuroNCAP requirements for 5-star safety rating, the General Safety Regulation 2 coming in effect in Europe from 2022 and brand competition push ADAS penetration in EU car sales as part of optional or standard equipment. Also, ADAS can provide new revenues and product differentiation. Carmakers and Suppliers are monetizing the increasing ADAS content per vehicle.

Vision-based fusion technologies will experience strong demand as the rating scheme evolves to incorporate ever more sophisticated functionality Parking assistance, emergency braking, and lane assist systems are the most popular ADAS in the U.K, the NL, Belgium, & France (Bosch survey).

Carmakers will need to continue the investments in ADAS & Autonomous Driving to remain competitive. We assess Lv.0-to-L2+ account for 99% of new car sales across 4 major car markets in 2020 and c.85% by 2025 respectively showcasing the opportunity in driver assistance systems to be the predominant solution for the next decade.

Auto2x

Auto2x expects that leading ADAS players will introduce 71 Level 3 -equipped vehicles in Europe in 2025 while Level 3 penetration will reach 21.2% of new car sales in Europe in that year. A higher level of vehicle automation will require an augmented sensor set, new architecture, and innovative validation methods among others. In more detail, ADAS Average Content per Vehicle in 2020 will range from €489 for Level 2, with 17 sensors per car, to €960-€2.100 for Level 3 depending on the usage of lidar or not for redundancy.

Finally, Software & AI represent new value pools. Software represented around 10% of overall vehicle content in 2018 for a D-segment car ($1,220) & it will grow with a compound annual rate of 11% to reach 30% ($5,200) in 2030, according to McKinsey. Major Tier-1 Suppliers are already monetizing the growth. For example, Bosch has already been building Vehicle super-computers for ADAS & Automated driving and received more than €2.5 Billion worth of orders in this domain in 2020. They expect the market to be worth €20Bn by 2030.

Read more

• 21% of new cars to be highly-automated in 2025
• Top-12 technology partnerships in Connected & Automated Driving in 2020
• TOP-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving
• Top 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race
• New Regulation for Lv.3 Autonomy finally coming in 2021 after 3 years of delays

Read our reports to understand carmakers’ strategies to reach higher levels of vehicle autonomy and the opportunities they create for ADAS sensors, AD platforms as well as collaborations. Our reports also provide an in-depth analysis of how the regulatory framework affects the OEM strategy for Level 3 deployment.

• 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025.
• ADAS Suppliers Rankings & market shares 2015-20
• Auto2x Perspectives: Automated Driving 2025
• “Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car” report portfolio

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

• With the ALKS regulation opening the road for Level 3 deployment in 2021, and Autonomous Driving roadmaps largely insulated from the pandemic, “eyes-off the road” technology will be commercialized in Europe and Japan this year
• Cars equipped with Level 3 features in Europe will more than double between 2021 and 2025 but hands-off functionality will be restricted to highway functions due to regulation and Lidar deployment strategies
• Premium car brands, such as Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz will dominate deployment of Level 3 – Driving features in 2021 but by 2025 Volume brands will lead both market shares in Lv.3 sales and models equipped with Level 3 capabilities
• BMW will hold the lion’s share in Level 3 – Traffic Jam Pilot & Highway Pilot features sold in Europe in 2021; VW the claim the top spot in 2025

Regulation delayed the transition to Level 3 “conditional eyes-off” from 2017 to 2021

Technologically, 2017 was the year of transition from Partially (SAE Level 2) to Conditionally-Automated driving (SAE Level 3) in passenger cars, with Audi becoming the first to announce a Level 3 Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. But with regulation restricting the deployment of “eyes-off-the-road” on private car ownership, Level 3 introduction is delayed by more than 3 years until later in 2021 in Europe when the Automated Lane Keeping Systems regulation comes into force in the signatories the UNECE R.79.

Europe is not the only geography to see Conditional Automation in 2021 with Nissan and Honda announcing deployment plans in Japan. Nissan’s ProPilot 2.0, which the company originally planned to launch in Japan by the end 2019 in the Nissan Skyline, falls into the definition of L3+ Highway Pilot. What’s more, Changan is among the Chinese carmakers planning to start of production of Lv3 autonomous cars in the world’s largest car market this year.

Read more about China’s potential to read the Autonomous Driving race here.

Autonomous Driving roadmaps could remain insulated from the pandemic but further collaboration is needed

Despite the disruption the automotive industry has witnessed due to the pandemic, the Autonomous Driving roadmaps of some carmakers remained largely unaffected driven by safety regulation, market competition. Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Nissan, and Honda are among the carmakers announcing a shift to Level 3 from 2021. What’s more, back in May 2020, Volvo confirmed its commitment to self-driving cars as they remain a priority for the Swedish OEM. Volvo plans to launch a Lv.4 system from 2022 featuring Luminar’s lidar.

The capital constraints together with the need for further expertise in AI and software to accelerate time-to-market will fuel further collaboration between players.for example to develop AD platforms. This shift from working independently to a collaborative approach is demonstrated by recent announcements of the alliances between leading car manufacturers and major ADAS Suppliers or mobility providers.

Read more about the most important technology partnerships between carmakers and other automotive players in 2020.

“We expect that in 2025, 21.2% of new car sales in Europe will offer Highly-Automated Driving (Level 3) features as optional or standard equipment. Even though the majority of Lv.3 features will come from premium car manufacturers in 2021, by 2025, Volume OEMs will account for the lion’s share.

The functionality of Lv.3 features will quickly expand from low-speed, single-lane Traffic Jam Pilots to more advanced Highway Pilots supported by Lidar.”

Auto2x

Premium car brands will dominate Level 3 deployment until they start shifting to Level 4 from 2022

Premium car brands, such as Audi, BMW, and Mercedes-Benz will dominate deployment of Lv.3-Driving features in 2021 but by 2025 more Volume brands will launch capabilities. BMW will hold the lion’s share in Lv.3-Traffic Jam Pilot & Highway Pilot features sold in Europe in 2021 but they will lose the top spot to VW by 2025.

BMW plans Level 3+, Level 4 capable vehicle by 2021, announced as ‘iNext’ back in Sep’18 or iX in Nov’20, developed through the partnership formed with Mobileye and Intel in July 2016. iX will act as a tech flagship for BMW with 100% BEV and leading AD for the brand. The German brand formed partnerships for solid-state Lidar with Innoviz for its L3/4 platforms through Magna as a Tier-1. We assess that L3 will expand quickly across BMW’s carlines between 2021 and 2025 so that by 2025 L3 will be available in 52.4% of BMW’s model range, or 11 models out of the 21 models.

ADAS content is increasing to bridge the technological gap for higher levels of autonomy

Auto2x expects that leading ADAS players will introduce 71 Level 3 -equipped vehicles in Europe in 2025 while Level 3 penetration will reach 21.2% of new car sales in Europe in that year.

A higher level of vehicle automation will require an augmented sensor set, new architecture, and innovative validation methods among others. In more detail, ADAS Average Content per Vehicle in 2020 will range from €489 for Level 2, with 17 sensors per car, to €960-€2.100 for Level 3 depending on the usage of lidar or not for redundancy.

Level 3 could cost €3.000 & Level 4 €10.000

APTIV

This will drive demand for ADAS sensors, supercomputers, AI, high precision maps, etc. It will also drive further collaboration between OEMs and Tier 1s-2s for the development of AD platforms-be it Level 4 for car-sharing or not. Volume OEMs, as well as AD laggards, are also in demand for cheap and scalable AD platforms in their quest to remain relevant.

Read more

• Top-12 technology partnerships in Connected & Automated Driving in 2020
• TOP-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving
• Top 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race
• New Regulation for Lv.3 Autonomy finally coming in 2021 after 3 years of delays
• Highly-Automated Driving (Level 3) in 1 out of 6 cars in Europe in 2021, says Auto2x

Read our reports to understand carmakers’ strategies to reach higher levels of vehicle autonomy and the opportunities they create for ADAS sensors, AD platforms as well as collaborations. Our reports also provide in-depth analysis of how the regulatory framework affects OEM strategy for Level 3 deployment.

• 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025.
• ADAS Suppliers Rankings & market shares 2015-20
• Auto2x Perspectives: Automated Driving 2025
• “Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car” report portfolio

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

2020 witnessed strategic technology partnerships in Lidar, Autonomous Trucks, Autonomous Driving Software, Robotaxis, and 5G for V2X to progress the roadmaps of automotive players to automated and connected driving.

Learn who collaborated with whom across the most crucial Automated Driving technology domains, what does it mean for the players, and what is our outlook on the Automated Driving market.

January 2020: Zenuity-HP

• Technology domain: Data services and computing for Autonomous Driving
• What: Zenuity partnered with Hewlett Packard for AI and higher performance computing for Autonomous Driving.
• Why it matters: Digitalisation is a key enabler of current Connected Car and future mobility services. Also, Artificial Intelligence is one of the key enablers for the transition from today’s driver assistance systems to self-driving chauffeurs in private cars and first/last-mile transportation. Tier-1s need technology partners with expertise in data and computing to support data validation & verification of Automated Driving scenarios and feature development for carmakers.

February 2020: FCA-AutoX

• Technology domain: Automated Mobility on Demand (AMoD)
• What: Alibaba-back AutoX partnered with FCA to develop self-driving robotaxis.
• Why it matters: Automated-Mobility-on Demand can solve challenges in B2C car sharing and B2C taxi services / ride hailing. Firstly, it can provide independence from brokering company and secondly, easy redistribution of vehicles. Carmakers are developing robotaxis mainly for two reasons. To tap into a promising new market as consumer needs in urban environment demand alternative business models of “consuming mobility in addition to or substituting vehicle ownership”. Moreover, through robotaxis, they can amortize the cost of expensive sensors, such as lidars, before they can fit them to passenger cars.

March 2020: Intel-Moovit

• Technology domain: Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)
• What: Moovit will join the Mobileye business while retaining its brand and existing partnerships.
• Why it matters: The sharing economy expands to the automotive industry to reshape urban mobility. The addition of Moovit brings Intel’s Mobileye closer to achieving its plan to become a complete mobility provider, including robotaxi services, which is forecast to be an estimated $160 billion opportunity by 2030.

April 2020: APTIV-Hyundai

• Technology domain: Autonomous Driving in Passenger Cars, AMoD
• What: APTIV-Hyundai create Autonomous Joint-Venture called Motional for L4/5 platforms for robotaxis, fleet operators, and OEMs.
• Why it matters: The need for technical expertise in new domains, reduction of capital wasting and acceleration of time-to-market fuel demand for collaboration to develop Autonomous Driving platforms.

May 2020: Huawei-Chinese carmakers

• Technology domain: Connected Cars using 5G
• What: Huawei partnered with Chinese carmakers to “cultivate 5G automobile ecosphere” according to the company. The first batch of 18 automakers of this alliance includes First Automobile Group, Chang’an Automobile, Dongfeng Motor Corporation, SAIC Motor Corporation, Guangzhou Automobile Group, BYD Auto, Great Wall Motors, Chery Holdings, and JAC Motors. 

June 2020: NVIDIA-Mercedes

• Technology domain: Autonomous Driving Software
• What: To build the world’s most advanced, software-defined vehicles.
• Why it matters: Software can provide product differentiation and improve customer experience. If carmakers do not embrace tech change and invest in SW, they face being merely assemblers and lose access to a large revenue pool.

July 2020: FCA-Waymo

• Technology domain: Autonomous Trucks and Passenger Cars
• What: FCA and Waymo Further expand Autonomous Driving Technology Partnership.
• Why it matters: Competition for leadership in the ADAS&AD space is intense and success requires expertise, substantial investment in terms of capital, human capital as well as time and time-to-market. This enhances the pursuit for (even) closer collaboration between players to develop components and platforms for higher levels of autonomy and avoid resource wasting.

August 2020: Toyota-Amazon

• Technology domain: LV.4 Parking in Passenger Cars using V2I
• What: Toyota and Amazon Web Services Collaborate on Toyota’s Mobility Services Platform: to expand Toyota’s Mobility Services Platform (MSPF), an ecosystem to help Toyota engineers develop, deploy, and manage the next generation of data-driven mobility services for driver and passenger safety, security, comfort, and convenience in Toyota’s cloud-connected vehicles.

September 2020: ZF-Aeva

• Technology domain: Lidar for Lv.4 in Passenger Cars
• What: Aeva and ZF partner to bring FMCW lidar to automotive grade volume production.
• Why it matters: Lidar can complement radar and camera sensors to provide more robust perception of the vehicle’s environment required for highly-automated driving.

October 2020: Daimler Trucks-Waymo

• Technology domain: Autonomous Trucks
• What: Daimler Trucks and Waymo partner on the development of autonomous SAE Level 4 trucks. Also in October 2020, Daimler Trucks and Torc partnered with Luminar to enable automated trucking – Daimler Trucks acquires a minority stake in Luminar.
• Why it matters: Autonomous Driving features such as multi-brand platooning and autonomous delivery of goods can have a substantial impact on the Commercial Vehicle market where asset tracking, fuel efficiency and road safety are of major importance.

November 2020: Mobileye-Luminar

• Technology domain: Lidar for Lv.4 in Passenger Cars
• What: Luminar partners with Mobileye for self-driving cars, following partnerships with Daimler Trucks and Volvo earlier in 2020. Mobileye said it will use Luminar’s lidar for the first generation of its Level 4 Mobility-as-a-Service pilot and driverless fleet in key markets around the world, including Tel Aviv, Israel; Dubai, United Arab Emirates; Paris; and Daegu City, South Korea.

December 2020: Uber-Aurora

• Technology domain: Autonomous Trucks
• What: Amazon-backed Aurora bought Uber’s ATG and announced a strategic partnership with Uber to strengthen Aurora Driver in heavy and light-duty vehicles.

Read more

• TOP-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving
• 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race
• New Regulation for Lv.3 Autonomy finally coming in 2021 after 3 years of delays
• Highly-Automated Driving (Level 3) in 1 out of 6 cars in Europe in 2021, says Auto2x

To learn more about competition and market developments in the next decade read our reports

• 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025.
• ADAS Suppliers Rankings & market shares 2015-20
• “Intelligent, Autonomous & Secure Car” report portfolio

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

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• Europe and the USA remain the geographies with the highest penetration of Autonomous driving but stricter road safety regulations and lack of standardization could still restrict fast deployment;
• China’s commitment to Intelligent & Connected Vehicles could fast track regulatory changes to give a head start to domestic brands, while the advanced digital infrastructure and the burgeoning mobility market hold the potential to boost adoption of AMoD;
• Successful expansion of Chinese pioneers beyond China in both AMoD and Lv.3/4 in passenger cars will be crucial to claim a stronger position in the Autonomous Driving race

Europe is the leading geography in terms of ADAS deployment with Lv.2 penetration accounting for 35.8% of new car sales in 2020, followed by the USA with 16.8% respectively, according to Auto2x. But the amendment of regulations for Lv.3 Conditional Automation has delayed the roadmaps of European and American players in Europe for the last 3 years.

3 reasons why China could emerge as leading Autonomous Driving Mobility Hub

• Automated Driving Technology: Chinese Carmakers leverage strategic ties with European OEMs and partnerships with domestic pioneers to close the technological gap for L2-4 and fast-track deployment. Domestic innovation and infrastructure in connectivity, internet services, and AI, is strong to support Autonomous Driving, and Vehicle-to-Vehicle & Infrastructure communication;
• Autonomous Driving Regulation: What’s more, they could benefit substantially from the flexible domestic regulatory framework which favors domestic brands to move swiftly to deployment
• Consumer adoption: China has a consumer base that has a high level of acceptance of innovative technologies. The country is also the world’s largest ride-hailing market which is working on robotaxis and autonomous deliveries

Therefore, Auto2x assesses that China will take global leadership of Lv.2-Driving sales in 2025 with 1.70 million cars, ahead of Europe and the USA.

1. Chinese carmakers have aggressive Automated Driving Roadmaps but deployment is concentrated on the domestic market

• BYD offers Lv.2 parking in China since 2012 and they launched Level 2 DiPilot in 2020

In Apr’20 BYD officially launched its DiPilot ADAS which claims it optimizes ADAS to the driver’s input by means of notification and intervention under a system called DiTrainer. It also features: Lv.2-D Traffic Jam Assist and One-lane integrated Cruise; Lv.2-P: Remote Control Parking, L1-P Automated Parking Assist for the first time in the Han; Lv.1: AEB, ACC, LKA, and Lv.0: FCW and LDW

In Mar’20, sources claimed that BYD planned the launch of its BEV SUV Tang EV600 in Norway in 2021, marking the entry of its passenger cars to Europe through the country with the highest BEV penetration. Reports claim that some of the BEV Tang EV600’s ADAS will be Lv.2-P Remote Controlled Parking, L2-Driving which is not named, L1-Driving ACC, blind zone alert, file change alert, collision alert and automatic emergency braking. The expansion of ADAS features in Europe could be an important step for BYD to position itself better in the Autonomous Driving race.

China to take global leadership of L2-Driving sales in 2025 with 1.70 million cars

We assess that China will follow behind Europe and the USA in terms of sales of L2-L4 Driving features until 2025, with the exception of L2-D, where China will claim leadership in 2025. This is because of two reasons.  First, because today, many European and US carmakers lead the deployment of ADAS and innovate in Automated Driving technology.

Technology innovation in China, specifically through Baidu’s Apollo, could help bridge the gap. But as more brands in Europe and USA start shifting to L3-D especially towards the end of the first half of the next decade, causing L2-D sales to decrease, China’s L2-D sales will continue to grow which will allow them to surpass Europe and the USA in 2025.

Auto2x

• NIO’s new eT7 marks a new level of competence in Autonomous Driving for Chinese carmakers

In Jan’21, NIO unveiled their new eT7, a new electric car with entry level 70kWh battery priced at $69,200, which features an impressive ADAS & autonomous driving sensor suite. NIO also announced a subscription to their autonomous driving service which costs $107 a month. 

NIO’s Autonomous Driving (NAD) in the description is designed for driver assistance purposes only and cannot fully replace driver’s control or handle all possible traffic, weather, and road conditions. The driver must maintain attention as necessary and interfere or take over the control promptly based on the surrounding environment. NAD should be used with caution in complex traffic, bad weather, or special road conditions.

NIO

2. Favourable regulatory framework could boost the Autonomous Driving Roadmaps of key Chinese Carmakers but further clarity is needed to support development plans of OEMs

Over the past few years, China has changed its policy towards Autonomous Driving from completely prohibiting testing on public roads to allowing specific tests following local testing regulations in major cities such as Beijing, Shanghai, Shenzhen and Chongqing. Today, L4-5 Automated driving is not permitted and all automated vehicles must be equipped with a black box to determine liability in case of an accident.

In Jan’21, China’s Ministry of Transport announced a policy document which promotes smart road infrastructure and cooperative systems, such as Vehicle-to-Vehicle or Vehicle-to-Infrastructure communications, for the commercialization of higher levels of autonomous driving by 2025.

The Chinese ICV standard system aims to develop a preliminary ICV standards system to support ADAS and Lv.3 by 2020 and a comprehensive system to support L4-5 by 2025. In Feb’20, China unveiled its blueprint to develop its own standards for AV by 2025.

We assess that China will follow the UN R79 amendments and the new Automated Lane Keeping Assist Systems which allows Lv.3-Conditional Automation circa 2021 but we are concerned over the following issues which need to be resolved to provide clarity to manufacturers of Automated Driving Systems.

1. We believe that China will follow the R79 amendments and the new Automated Lane Keeping Assist Systems but it will probably seek to introduce additional requirements in the domestic market to give an edge to Chinese manufacturers. The restrictive framework of data collection for foreign players adversely affects their deployment roadmaps in China therefore an equal playing field is required;
2. Also, China has multiple ministries which are responsible for the supervision of AD and there needs to be greater clarity regarding who regulates what and who oversees regulation and compliance;
   1. Research & planning on ICVs: Overall plan of ICV in China: MIIT; Industrial development strategy: CAAM; Technical development roadmap: SAE China; System planning: NTCAS;
   1. Applicability: Laws, rules, and regulations relating to automobile and other relevant industries; together with Compulsory national standard applying for automobile
3. Further government action needed to develop higher quality highway infrastructure for autonomous vehicles which might give an edge to China comparing to Europe and the US which lead AD technology.

3. China’s burgeoning MaaS hub promotes autonomous mobility

China is the leading ride-hailing hub with an estimated 360 million registered users and more than 210 online car-hailing companies operating in the country, according to China’s Ministry of Transport.

Mobility companies, such as Uber and Didi are racing to deliver robotaxis which could allow them to offer a significantly lower cost service and gain market share. For Uber the cost of the driver is 70-80% of net revenue, substituting with Lv.4 could decrease operational cost and allow the company to become profitable as well as offering lower-cost service, even free in some cases, and subsidize from partners (e.g. Deliveroo).

During the pandemic, a number of mobility players in China accelerated their plans for autonomous deliveries to support hospitals, food delivery and other use cases. COVID-19 has impact consumer adoption towards autonomous deliveries which will be crucial for the adoption of autonomous driving in passenger cars.

The commercialization of robotaxis in China came one step closer recently with Baidu receiving the first license to test robotaxis without safety back-up drivers in Beijing, China. The company will test five of its self-driving Apollo vehicles which are retrofitted Lincoln MKZs and Chrysler Pacificas.

The adoption of robotaxis will play a crucial role in acceptance of self-driving cars. Safe operation can make or brake AMoD business models as demonstrated by the turmoil that AMoD faced after the first self-driving fatality caused an Uber test vehicle back in 2018.

Read more

• TOP-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving
• New Regulation for Lv.3 Autonomy finally coming in 2021 after 3 years of delays
• Highly-Automated Driving (Level 3) in 1 out of 6 cars in Europe in 2021, says Auto2x

To learn more about competition and market developments in the next decade read our report 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025. For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

2020 saw the launch of Level 4-Autonomous Driving in Automated Mobility on Demand (AMoD) from Waymo. But in passenger cars, the level of automation is still Level 2-Partial Automation.

Here are the biggest changes in Autonomous driving in 2021:

1. New Autonomous Driving Regulation for Level 3 is coming in 2021
2. Cyber Security mandates coming from January 2021
3. Autonomous driving poses challenges to Auto Insurance
4. The role of ADAS Suppliers in new Mobility will rise
5. HMI becomes the king of the vehicle interior

1. Regulation will finally allow Level 3 autonomous driving from 2021

In Europe, Japan, and China, Type approval of SAE Level 3 autonomous driving features, such as Audi’s AI Traffic Jam Pilot, is not allowed today requiring the amendment of UN Reg. No.79. The delay of the amendment of R79 is blocking Audi’s Lv.3 deployment strategy since 2018 until the UNECE-Automated Lane Keeping Systems regulation comes to force in Jan’21.

Read more about the requirements of the regulation here.

We see Europe and Japan benefiting from the changes in regulation due to the combination of technological capabilities in Level 3 from their domestic carmakers and the favorable political framework to remove roadblocks and establish their respective markets as key innovation hubs.

Germany and Japan to become early adopters

Europe is the leading geography in terms of penetration of ADAS technology, thanks to innovation primarily from German carmakers. Level 2-Driving feature availability in Europe reached 91 models in 2019 as Volume brands such as Renault, Citroen and Honda introduced Traffic Jam Assist features. Mercedes-Benz has already stated that its new S-Class equipped with the new DRIVE PILOT will switch on Level 3 by late ’21 on suitable highways in Germany. We expect Audi, and BMW to join Mercedes-Benz among the first carmakers to activate Level 3 via Over-the-Air-Updates in Europe.

Before the pandemic hit, Japan aimed to align its Autonomous Driving regulatory framework with Europe aiming to unlock Lv.3 for the 2020 Tokyo Olympics. In Jan’20, Japan even announced safety standards for Lv3. We expect that Level 3 demonstrations in Japan during the 2021 Tokyo Olympics will demonstrate its technological innovation led by Nissan who will offer its first Level 3 Pro-Pilot feature in the Skyline.

To learn more about competition and market developments in the next decade read our report 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025.

2. Auto Insurance is up for disruption

Who is liable for a crash when Level 3 is in “Active mode”?

Level 3-Autonomous Driving presents a challenge to traditional vehicle insurance due to its implications for the determination of liability. In Level 3, the transfer of vehicle control from the driver to the Automated Driving System has implications for the determination of liability since the driver is still the ultimate back-up. This also creates insurance challenges for higher levels of automation.

More specifically, since the Liability framework for Level 3 is still largely unconfirmed, insurance tools are not in place for this level of automation. The above challenge the development of Level 2-Autonomous Driving and Level 3 features by manufacturers. However, carmakers, including Audi and Volvo have claimed that they will be accountable for potential failures when their ADS are active.

The ALKS regulation mandates vehicles to be equipped with a Data Storage System for Automated Driving — the so-called “black box” — which will record when ALKS is activated. Car manufacturers must also introduce Driver Availability Recognition Systems, which monitor seatbelt use and monitor the driver’s capability to take back control of the vehicle, including through spotting eye blinking and closure.

Among automotive industry associations, the GEAR 2030 has expressed the views that “motor insurance and product liability directives are sufficient for upcoming systems, whereas harmonisation of national liability regimes is neither needed nor feasible for the upcoming systems in 2020”.

We see the need for adequate education of drivers, from both carmakers as well as rating associations such as the NCAP to help them understand their legal requirements and avoid consumer confusion over driver responsibilities or even misuse resulting from “mode confusion”.

3. Automotive Cyber Security becoming mandatory

Over the next decade, as transportation progresses from Connected and Partially-Automated to Highly and Fully-automated, Smart and Shared Mobility, the addition of new sensors and ECUs, new architecture, more Connected devices and V2X will significantly enlarge the vehicle ‘’attack surface”. Identifying, mitigating and responding to cyber threats will not only be paramount for physical road and vehicle safety but also a prerequisite for the transition towards self-driving cars.

ALKS will also need to comply with cyber-security and software update requirements set out in two other new U.N. regulations. In more detail, two new regulations on automotive cybersecurity and software updates to establish clear performance and audit requirements for OEMs are coming into effect in Jan’21.

• The 1st is the “UN Regulation on Cybersecurity and Cyber Security Management Systems” and
• the 2^nd the “UN Regulation on Software Updates & Software Updates Management Systems”.

To better understand the changing legislation read our reports:

• Automotive Cyber Security 2025: the secure Connected Car
• Regulatory roadmaps to Autonomous Driving, Automotive Cyber Security, V2X & AI

4. ADAS Suppliers poised for growth but they will face even tougher competition

ADAS suppliers are well-positioned to monetize the revenue growth coming from the proliferation of ADAS. They have significant expertise in the design, development, and delivery of components for ADAS and/or ADAS features, which gives them an edge over many OEMs.

Leading ADAS suppliers are in a unique position to supply multiple OEMs with technology which provides them a wide customer base but they also have the ability to sell their ADAS portfolio directly. Furthermore, leading Tier-1s have announced a continuing investment in human capital and expansion of production capacity, especially for radars and Lidar sensors. Last but not least, leading ADAS suppliers to have a well-diversified revenue base and additionally worldwide presence to capitalize on growth in different regions, i.e. currently in advanced car markets which account for most of ADAS revenues but later on in emerging car markets so the highest growth potential. 

Fighting off new entrants: new expertise & collaborative business models needed

As mobility shifts from product to service, the world’s biggest automotive suppliers are striving to develop capabilities in AI & software. Bosch is committed to invest 300 million euros by 2021 in the development of the Bosch Center of Artificial Intelligence which already operates in India, the U.S. and Germany. But even though they invest heavily to support the autonomous driving and connectivity roadmaps of carmakers, tech giants entering the mobility space seem to be closer to bring new services to the market.

To learn more about winning business models in ADAS & Autonomous Driving and market leadership in ADAS read our report Rankings & market shares of Top Tier-1 ADAS Suppliers by 2020.

5. New HMI technology will see growth to unlock driver safety and convenience

Today, drivers cannot be distracted by ADAS. They always have to have their hands on the steering wheel and their eyes on the road. But a number of reasons cause confusion to drivers leading to system misuse or abuse. Carmakers face challenges with ADAS Level 1-2 UX / UI which might confuse drivers and lead to system misuse of abuse.

Intuitive interaction with HMI and safe transition of control between the driver and the system is critical for higher levels of automated driving. Already, the UNECE-R79 regulation is considering mandating technologies such as driver-facing cameras to mitigate safety risks of ‘’transition demand’’. In addition to regulatory requirements, engineering requirements for functional safety will affect the design and operation of modern HMI for automated driving to deliver enhanced safety and take advantage of the side tasks unlocked by higher autonomy.

We see 3 key changes coming up in 2021 around HMI for ADAS and Automated Driving

1. Further industry standardization of ADAS HMI visuals on driver cluster (status, warnings) driven by the regulatory guidance;
2. Driver-facing cameras need to become an engineering requirement for Lv.2 systems to prevent driver distraction in L0-1 and help with driver availability in L2 and L3 handover;
3. AI-based emotion state monitoring to tackle inefficiencies of current Driver monitoring systems and shift from mitigation to prognosis.

Read more

• 3 reasons why China could win the Autonomous Driving race?
• New Regulation for Lv.3 Autonomy finally coming in 2021 after 3 years of delays
• Highly-Automated Driving (Level 3) in 1 out of 6 cars in Europe in 2021, says Auto2x

For more information, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562 or info@auto2xtech.com.

• After almost 3 years in the making, the amendment of UNECE Reg. No.79-Steering Equipment will allow Level 3 in countries adopting the new rules called “Automated Lane Keeping System”
• Germany, France, and Japan expected to be among the first. But the USA does not follow the same regulatory framework
• Mercedes-Benz, BMW, Nissan, and Honda are among the carmakers announcing a shift to Level 3 from 2021 – Audi, Tesla expected to join
• Regardless, ADAS Lv.0-2 will be the most prevalent by 2025

Today regulation restricts Level 3 in UN R.79 counterparties incl. the EU, Japan, and China

Regulation delayed the transition to “conditional eyes-off” from 2017 to 2021-22 in signatories of UNECE N.79 giving an advantage to the USA, which follows voluntary guidelines instead of mandates for type approval. However, Audi lost its head-start to deploy Lv.3 in the US whereas Tesla’s FSD is still a hands-on Level 2 system.

Going beyond today’s status of Automated Driving, which is SAE Lv.0-2 with the latter meaning the drivers must always be in control even if ADAS are active, would require a new approach to the road traffic-otherwise drivers would be breaching their legal obligations. Regulators and technical groups have been trying to amend the R.79-Steering Equipment to allow the system to control the vehicle during “automated mode” with the driver as a fall-back.

The introduction of L3 driving features will allow the driver to take his/her eyes-off the road during the automated driving mode since the ADS will be responsible for monitoring the road when it’s in active mode. This presents engineering challenges to the automotive industry in terms of robustness, validation as well as technical and ethical issues.

What is more, the introduction of these systems falls under regulatory approval both at an international level (e.g. R79) and at a national level (domestic traffic laws). Work is being done on both aspects of major car markets.  

UNECE’s Automated Lane Keeping System regulation is applicable for LEVEL 3, for low-speed (60 km/h) highway-only

In Jun’20, the UN announced the ALKS regulation which is set to apply to 60 countries including the UK, Japan, and European Union member states from January 2021, to enable the safe introduction of ‘Level 3’ automation features in certain traffic environments. 

UN regulations manage pre-sale Type Approval, i.e. the Regulation sets out clear performance-based requirements that must be met by car manufacturers before ALKS-equipped vehicles can be sold within countries mandating the Regulation.

Table Requirements of Automated Lane Keeping Regulation (Text here)

“Automated Lane Keeping System (ALKS)” for low speed application is a
system which is activated by the driver and which keeps the vehicle within its lane for travelling speed of 60 km/h or less by controlling the lateral and
longitudinal movements of the vehicle for extended periods without the need for further driver input.

ALKS

Requirements

1. “ALKS can control the vehicle when the driver is behind the wheel with their seatbelt on.” This means that the regulation does not allow driver-less vehicles, as in the case of Waymo. It’s important to note that Mobility services are expected to follow different rules compared to passenger cars. 2. The driver can override such systems and can be requested by the system to intervene, at any moment. Operational domain 3. ALKS can only be activated on roads equipped with a physical separation dividing traffic moving in opposite directions, and where pedestrians and cyclists are prohibited. 4. In its current form, the Regulation limits the operational speed of ALKS systems to a max of 60 km/h (37 mph) 5. Screens for any activities other than driving are automatically switched off as soon as the driver resumes control 6. The Regulation also lays down requirements on how the driving task shall be safely handed back from the ALKS to the driver, including the capability for the vehicle to come to a stop in case the driver does not reply appropriately. 7. The regulations also require vehicles to be equipped with a Data Storage System for Automated Driving — the so-called “black box” — which will record when ALKS is activated. 8. Car manufacturers must also introduce Driver Availability Recognition Systems, which monitor seatbelt use and monitor the driver’s capability to take back control of the vehicle, including through spotting eye blinking and closure. 9. ALKS will also need to comply with cyber-security and software update requirements set out in two other new U.N. regulations also adopted this week.

Adoption by counterparties & carmakers

The government of Japan – which co-led the drafting of the Regulation with Germany – will apply the Regulation upon entry into force. The European Commission, which also contributed to its development alongside, amongst others, France, the Netherlands and Canada, has announced that the Regulation will apply in the European Union following its entry into force. UN mentioned that a number of major automotive manufacturers are expected to apply the Regulation upon entry into force.

What is the outlook for regulatory roadmaps of carmakers for Level 3-4 Automated Driving?

We expect Germany to lead Lv.3 deployment in Europe after the amendment of R79, followed by the UK. German brands, such as Audi, BMW, and Mercedes, did not manage to take advantage of exemptions using Article 20 and Germany’s early move of road traffic act amendments. But standardization across Europe will probably start after 2022 – which is a considerable delay for brands such as Audi whose Lv.3 system was scheduled for deployment in Europe in 2018 and it is still not available in the USA, Europe, or China.

Audi become the first to introduce a L3-Driving feature in 2017 with the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval and validation is pending. Audi’s flagship, which became available in Germany by the end of 2017, is equipped with long-range radars, 12 ultrasonic sensors, Lidar and hi-resolution video cameras which will constantly monitor the car’s surroundings allowing TJP to guide a car through traffic-jams at speeds up to 37mph (60 km/h).  

When Audi’s AI Traffic Jam Pilot is active, drivers will be able to take their eyes-off the road and perform side tasks, e.g. read emails. But they must always be available to takeover vehicle control- since they are (by definition) the ultimate back-up. Audi has stated that they will accept full liability while in L3 autonomous mode. Volvo has done the same.

We expect that Lv.3 cars will feature AD-Event Data Recorder (AD-EDR) to handle liability issues. Audi’s strategy to deliver Lv.3 marks an intermediate level of autonomy between Supervised driving (SAE Level 0-2) and Unsupervised driving (Level 4-5) which could be described as Conditionally-Unsupervised.

Learn more about Regulation & Carmakers’ roadmap’s in Auto2x’s reports

• To understand the current status of autonomous vehicle deployment including the ADAS&Autonomous Driving portfolio of 30 leading brands, read our report: 30 Carmakers’ roadmaps in Automated Driving by 2025
• To read more about the current state of the art of regulation read our report Regulatory guide to Autonomous Driving, Automotive Cyber Security, V2X & AI. This report analyses the regulatory landscape for the transition from Supervised to Unsupervised-Driving (SAE Level 4-5) to allow the deployment of higher levels of autonomy. Since the future is also Secure and Connected, our analysis also provides a regulatory guide on Automotive Cyber Security and V2X (V2V-V2I).

Read more insights

• Top-5 new changes in 2021 transforming Autonomous Driving
• Regulatory impact on the deployment of Highly-automated driving
• Germany legalizes Level 3 automated driving technology that allows “eyes-off” the road
• Volvo to skip Level 3 autonomous mode

For more information on this report, including sample pages and a full Table of Contents, please contact us on (+44) (0)20 3286 4562.