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Autonomous Driving: 30 Carmakers roadmaps by 2030

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Publication date: Updated in January 2022
Number of pages: 201
Number of tables and graphs: 222 (82+140)

Description

“Autonomous Driving: Top 30 Carmakers roadmaps by 2025” – our 200-page report examines the current status of the levels of vehicle automation by driving and parking features and provides an outlook for 2025-30 (SAE Level 0-Level 4). It also provides a roadmap for Automated Driving deployment for 30+ major OEMs in Europe, the USA, Japan, and China.

Learn about the status of vehicle automation in 2021 and its outlook for 2025 in the major car markets:

  • What is the availability of key ADAS features, such as AEB, TSR, ACC, LKA, TJA, in leading carmakers in Europe, the US and China? We provide in-depth segmentation by SAE Level;
  • What is the penetration rate of SAE Level 0-3 in European, U.S & Chinese car sales?
  • Which OEMs lead L2-3 deployment and why? Which are the most prominent features?
  • What changes are coming in terms of the deployment of Lv.2 and L3-4 by 2025?

Understand the regulatory and engineering challenges carmakers face for the deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy:

  • What is the status of the Autonomous Driving Regulation in major car markets?
  • What are the differences in the legal and regulatory framework between Europe, the United States and China? How will these differences in policy affect L3-5 deployment?
  • Which geography presents the most favourable environment for deployment of Level 3?
  • What breakthroughs are required in the area of SW/HW and validation for L3-4?

Read how carmakers, Tier-1s and new entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving

  • How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities? By when?
  • Analysis of OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations
  • Learn why leading Tier-1s are well-positioned to monetize ADAS growth

Who will lead and who will follow in the autonomous vehicle race until 2025?

  • Discover when leading carmakers will launch capabilities of L2, L3, and L4, segmented into Driving (L2-TJA vs L3-TJP) and Parking features (e.g. L2-Self Park, L4-Valet Parking)
  • What are the trends by ADAS levels in Top Premium OEMs’ model range during 2016-25?
  • Learn about the penetration of different levels of autonomy in European car sales?

Benchmark competition:

  • Strengths and weaknesses of ADAS&AD product portfolio, suppliers and competitiveness
  • Shares in automation in key markets and roadmap of deployment by key carline

    Carmaker Roadmap in Autonomous Driving
    Carmaker Roadmap in Autonomous Driving

 

2021 saw the introduction of Lv.3 technology that allows “eyes-off” the road

 In June 2020, regulators announced that the UNECE regulation Automated Lane Keeping Systems will come into force from Jan’21 allowing the deployment of Level 3 in signatory countries.

Technologically, 2017 was the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (L3), with Audi becoming the first to introduce an Lv.3-Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval and incomplete data validation.

Is Mercedes-Benz’s Level 3-Autonomy worth the 5.000 euro premium? Read more here

Level 3 systems can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’. But the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the takeover request.

Deployment of Level 3-AD is still subject to regional regulatory approval. What’s more, the regulatory and legal framework differs across leading car markets. This could result in a lack of harmonisation and require design variation, adversely impacting the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.

Lv.2-Driving availability in Europe reached 91 models in 2019 as Volume brands join in

The number of models offering Partially-automated driving capabilities in Europe, as standard or optional equipment, rose with CAGR 71% over the last 5 years to reach 73 in 2018.

Carmakers are gradually offering higher-speed functionality by expanding Cruise Assist (CA) offerings across their model range. Moreover, the number of models offering L2-Parking reached 18 in 2018, of which 13 offered Self & Remote Parkin

Partially automated (SAE Level 2) model offerings expand to the compact segment

At the same time, more carmakers are introducing Level 2 parking & driving capabilities and are expanding feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment. This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars, and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements, and competition drive the fitment of ADAS.

Autonomous Driving Technology Roadmap; ADAS Feature & Sensor Set

Level 3 and L4 require augmented sensing capabilities thus additional front sensors are expected to become part of the ADAS sensor set to enhance robustness. Lidar and/or high-definition radars are expected to become the norm for this, as Audi A8’s lidar above, but not everybody is going this direction. For example, Tesla’s HW for the Enhanced Autopilot, which claims L3-4 capability does not include a lidar. The figures below present a representative (but not exclusive) set of building blocks, i.e., supporting ADAS driving and parking features, to enable higher levels of autonomy. Another key component for these feature roadmaps is the required sensor set for each level of automation presented below.

Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but standardisation will be a challenge

 The transition from driver-centric regulation to Autonomous Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment of international regulations as well as national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what’s legal and what’s not?

Clear guidance on the safe and secure development, testing and deployment of AV technologies is necessary as well as harmonisation of homologation standards or vehicle certification in order to comply with safety standards.

Table of Contents

  1. Status of Autonomous Driving Technologies Deployment by driving & parking features
  2. Status of Automate Driving regulation
  3. OEM Strategies & business models in Automated Driving
  4. From Assisted to Autonomous: L2 – L4 Roadmap from leading OEMs
  5. Carmakers ADAS & autonomous driving roadmap & outlook
  6. Appendix

Buy this report together with “ADAS Supplier Rankings and Market Share” as part of our “Intelligent, Secure, and Connected Car Report Portfolio” and save 28%.

Details

Publication date: Updated in January 2022
Number of pages: 201
Number of tables and graphs: 222 (82+140)
Word count: 64,114

Table of Contents

  1. STATUS OF AUTOMATED DRIVING DEPLOYMENT BY LEVEL IN 2020-21
  • Democratization of ADAS accelerates fast to meet safety mandates but techno-economic deployment challenges  of Level 3 still persist
    • Regulation is delaying “conditional eyes-off the road’’ in signatories of UNECE regulation N.79 until 2021 giving an advantage to the USA
    • Germany’s attempt to gain a competitive advantage hindered by a slow regulatory update for Level 3 deployment
    • Level 2 model availability in Europe between 2016 & 2021
    • L2-D is expanding across carlines reaching the compact segment
    • ADAS content is increasing to meet safety regulatory mandates and bridge the technological gap for higher levels of autonomy
  • SAE Level 2 status in Europe 2020-21: TJA, SP & RP availability (%)
    • L2-D status in Europe in 2020-21: Traffic Jam Assist availability
    • Comparison of L2-D technology: speeds, lane change, hands-on detection, stop-in-lane, and naming strategy
    • EuroNCAP’s 2020 rating of Highway Assist / SAE Lv.2 features
    • L2-P in Europe 2020-21 Self-Park & Remote Parking availability
    • Level 2 penetration in European car sales in 2020-21
    • Level 2 OEM ranking in 2017 vs 2021: leaders and followers
  • SAE Level 1 in Europe 2020-21: ACC, AEB, PA, & LKA availability
  • Level 0 penetration in Europe 2020-21: BSM, DDM, FCW, LDW & TSR
    • Marketing names for ADAS L0/L1 features in Top-6 Premium OEMs
  • Level 3 testing/pilots: who tests what and where
  • The implications of Conditionally-automated driving on HMI
  1. THE STATUS OF AUTOMATED DRIVING DEPLOYMENT BY LEVEL 0-4 BY 2025
  • Read why regulation challenges Autonomous Driving deployment
  • Overview of AD regulatory & legal status in key geographics
  • The amendment of Reg.79 will allow L3 in UNECE from Jan 2021
    • ADAS are assistive and hands-on the wheel is always required
    • Reg.79 amendment is the critical step toward self-steering systems
    • Three concerns arising from Reg.79’s amendment
    • Automated Lane-Keeping System (ALKS) Regulation for Lv3
    • The USA has opened up the road to HAVs with guidelines
    • State of AV testing in the United States up to the end of 2021
    • Concerns over U.S policy on Automated Driving Systems
    • L3 automated driving is legal in Germany from autumn’17
    • The impact of AD regulation on L3 deployment
    • Technical challenges for deployment affecting AD adoption
  • Liability in L3 and the role of Event Data Recorders for AD
  • Vehicle Cybersecurity becomes a priority for carmakers
    • OEM and regulatory activity heats up in major car markets
    • What regulatory/legal action is needed to secure Connected Cars?
  1. OEM STRATEGIES & BUSINESS MODELS IN AUTOMATED DRIVING BY 2025
  • Incremental vs skip approach to reach Highly-automated driving
  • Build your own Automated Driving platform vs collaboration
    • Consortiums for L3-5 platforms, AMoD, and HD maps
    • Why ADAS Suppliers are well-positioned to monetize ADAS growth
  • Digitalization unlocks personalisation & new mobility services
  • Use cases and business models to commercialise L4/5
  • Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS)
  1. FROM ASSISTED TO AUTONOMOUS: L2-L4 ROADMAP FROM LEADING OEMS
  • Overview of L2-L4 Driving & Parking roadmap by OEM at earliest implementation
  • Automated Driving technology roadmap: ADAS feature & sensor set
  • Aggregate sales forecast by L2-D to L4-Driving features in EU, USA, China 2013 & 2025
    • Aggregate L2-D car & LV sales forecast in EU, USA & China 2013-25
    • Learn which geographies will lead Level 3 deployment
    • Aggregate Level 3-Driving equipped car sales forecast up to 2025
    • Aggregate sales of cars & LV with L4-Driving features by 2025
  • European AD forecast up to 2025: Driving vs Parking features
    • European AD roadmap for driving features: L2-D to L4-D
    • The impact of EuroNCAP’s 2025 roadmap
    • Market shares in Europe’s car sales by level of automation 2015-25
    • Partial automation (L2-D) forecast in Europe 2013-25
    • Conditional automation (L3-D) forecast in Europe 2018-25
    • L4-Driving forecast in European car sales 2018-25
    • European AD roadmap for parking features up to ‘21: L2-P to L4-P
    • Market shares of OEMs by Level of Automated Driving in Europe: L2-Driving, L3/4-D
  • USA Autonomous Driving Forecast for Driving features up to 2025
    • USA LV Sales & Penetration by L2-D to L4-D between 2013 & 2025
    • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales for L2-Driving features 2013-25
    • USA forecast of Light Vehicle sales with L3-Driving features by 2025
    • USA forecast of LV sales with L4-Driving features by 2025
  • China Automated Driving Forecast: L2-D to L4-D 2013 to 2021
  • Lidar forecast up to 2030 in passenger cars
  1. CARMAKER ADAS & AUTOMATED DRIVING ROADMAP & OUTLOOK
  • Audi
    • Audi’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set
    • Audi’s AD outlook: feature roadmap & model range by AD level
  • BAIC Motors
  • Bentley
  • BMW Group
    • BMW’s ADAS feature availability in model range & sensor set
    • BMW’s AD outlook: model range by AD level & feature roadmap
    • Mini with Level 2-Driving since 2018 and Level 3-Driving in 2025
  • BYD
  • CHANGAN
  • Daimler: Mercedes-Benz
    • ADAS feature availability in model range, Europe
    • Mercedes-Benz’s AD outlook: feature roadmap & AD level mix
  • FCA: Focus on Alfa Romeo, Fiat, Maserati & Jeep
  • Ford
  • Geely
  • General Motors: Cadillac and Chevy-Cruise
  • Great Wall
  • GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP (GAC)
  • Honda
  • Hyundai, KIA, and Genesis
    • Hyundai’s vision for Automated Driving
  • Jaguar Land Rover’s AD outlook: feature roadmap & AD level mix
  • Porsche
  • PSA
  • Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance
    • Nissan & Infiniti
    • Renault
  • SAIC
  • Subaru
  • Tesla Motors
    • Tesla’s ADAS portfolio and feature availability in model range
    • Tesla’s strategy to reach L4 with emphasis on vision
  • Toyota Motors: Lexus and Toyota
    • Toyota’s Automated Driving roadmap
  • Volvo
    • Volvo ADAS fitment: L2 in Europe offered as standard
    • Volvo’s AD outlook: model range by ADAS level
  • VW & VW Group: VW’s strategy & model range by Level of Automated Driving
  1. APPENDIX
  • Model availability by level of automation in Europe, 2015-2025
    • Models with Level 2-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
    • Models with Level 2-Parking features in Europe, 2015-2025
    • Models with Level 3-Driving features in Europe, 2015-2025
    • Models with Level 4 features in Europe, 2015-2025
  1. GLOSSARY
  2. DISCLAIMER

Companies Mentioned

Companies examined:

Audi Ford Porsche
BAIC Motors Geely PSA
Bentley General Motors: Cadillac and Chevy-Cruise Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi Alliance
BMW Group Great Wall SAIC
BYD GUANGZHOU AUTOMOBILE GROUP (GAC) Subaru
CHANGAN Honda Tesla Motors
Daimler: Mercedes-Benz Hyundai, KIA and Genesis Toyota Motors: Lexus and Toyota
FCA: Focus on Alfa Romeo, Fiat, Maserati & Jeep Jaguar Land Rover Volvo

VW & VW Group

Companies mentioned:

Alfa Romeo, Audi, BAIC Motors, Bentley, BMW, BYD, Cadillac, CHANGAN, Chevy, Citroen, Daimler, DS, FCA, Ford, GAC, Geely, General Motors, Genesis, Great Wall, Honda, Hyundai, Infiniti, Jaguar, Jeep, KIA, Land Rover, Lexus, Maserati, Mercedes-Benz, Mitsubishi, NIO, Nissan, Porsche, PSA, Renault, SAIC, Skoda, Stellantis, Subaru, Tesla, Toyota, Volkswagen, Volvo, VW, XPENG

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