“Autonomous Driving: Top 30 Carmakers roadmaps by 2025” – our 200-page, report examines the current status of the levels of vehicle automation by driving and parking features and provides an outlook for 2025-30 (SAE Level 0-Level 4). It also provides a roadmap for Automated Driving deployment for 30+ major OEMs in Europe, the USA, Japan, and China.
2021 saw the introduction of Lv.3 technology that allows “eyes-off” the road
In June 2020, regulators announced that the UNECE regulation Automated Lane Keeping Systems will come into force from Jan’21 allowing the deployment of Level 3 in signatory countries.
Technologically, 2017 was the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (L3), with Audi becoming the first to introduce an Lv.3-Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval and incomplete data validation.
Level 3 systems can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’. But the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the takeover request.
Deployment of Level 3-AD is still subject to regional regulatory approval. What’s more, the regulatory and legal framework differs across leading car markets. This could result in a lack of harmonisation and require design variation, adversely impacting the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.
Lv.2-Driving availability in Europe reached 91 models in 2019 as Volume brands join in
The number of models offering Partially-automated driving capabilities in Europe, as standard or optional equipment, rose with CAGR 71% over the last 5 years to reach 73 in 2018.
Carmakers are gradually offering higher-speed functionality by expanding Cruise Assist (CA) offerings across their model range. Moreover, the number of models offering L2-Parking reached 18 in 2018, of which 13 offered Self & Remote Parkin
Partially automated (SAE Level 2) model offerings expand to the compact segment
At the same time, more carmakers are introducing Level 2 parking & driving capabilities and are expanding feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment. This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars, and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements, and competition drive the fitment of ADAS.
Autonomous Driving Technology Roadmap; ADAS Feature & Sensor Set
Level 3 and L4 require augmented sensing capabilities thus additional front sensors are expected to become part of the ADAS sensor set to enhance robustness. Lidar and/or high-definition radars are expected to become the norm for this, as Audi A8’s lidar above, but not everybody is going this direction. For example, Tesla’s HW for the Enhanced Autopilot, which claims L3-4 capability does not include a lidar. The figures below present a representative (but not exclusive) set of building blocks, i.e., supporting ADAS driving and parking features, to enable higher levels of autonomy. Another key component for these feature roadmaps is the required sensor set for each level of automation presented below.
Autonomus Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but standardisation will be a challenge
The transition from driver-centric regulation to Autonomous Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment of international regulations as well as national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what’s legal and what’s not?
Clear guidance on the safe and secure development, testing and deployment of AV technologies is necessary as well as harmonisation of homologation standards or vehicle certification in order to comply with safety standards.
Table of Contents
- Status of Autonomous Driving Technologies Deployment by driving & parking features
- Status of Automate Driving regulation
- OEM Strategies & business models in Automated Driving
- From Assisted to Autonomous: L2 – L4 Roadmap from leading OEMs
- Carmakers ADAS & autonomous driving roadmap & outlook
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