“Autonomous Driving: Top 30 Carmakers roadmaps by 2025” – our 200-page report examines the current status of the levels of vehicle automation by driving and parking features and provides an outlook for 2025-30 (SAE Level 0-Level 4). It also provides a roadmap for Automated Driving deployment for 30+ major OEMs in Europe, the USA, Japan, and China.
Learn about the status of vehicle automation in 2021 and its outlook for 2025 in the major car markets:
- What is the availability of key ADAS features, such as AEB, TSR, ACC, LKA, TJA, in leading carmakers in Europe, the US and China? We provide in-depth segmentation by SAE Level;
- What is the penetration rate of SAE Level 0-3 in European, U.S & Chinese car sales?
- Which OEMs lead L2-3 deployment and why? Which are the most prominent features?
- What changes are coming in terms of the deployment of Lv.2 and L3-4 by 2025?
Understand the regulatory and engineering challenges carmakers face for the deployment of higher level of vehicle autonomy:
- What is the status of the Autonomous Driving Regulation in major car markets?
- What are the differences in the legal and regulatory framework between Europe, the United States and China? How will these differences in policy affect L3-5 deployment?
- Which geography presents the most favourable environment for deployment of Level 3?
- What breakthroughs are required in the area of SW/HW and validation for L3-4?
Read how carmakers, Tier-1s and new entrants, including tech giants Apple and Google (Waymo), plan to overcome the challenges and commercialize autonomous driving
- How do leading OEMs plan to achieve L4/5 capabilities? By when?
- Analysis of OEM strategy, new business models and key collaborations
- Learn why leading Tier-1s are well-positioned to monetize ADAS growth
Who will lead and who will follow in the autonomous vehicle race until 2025?
- Discover when leading carmakers will launch capabilities of L2, L3, and L4, segmented into Driving (L2-TJA vs L3-TJP) and Parking features (e.g. L2-Self Park, L4-Valet Parking)
- What are the trends by ADAS levels in Top Premium OEMs’ model range during 2016-25?
- Learn about the penetration of different levels of autonomy in European car sales?
- Strengths and weaknesses of ADAS&AD product portfolio, suppliers and competitiveness
- Shares in automation in key markets and roadmap of deployment by key carline
2021 saw the introduction of Lv.3 technology that allows “eyes-off” the road
In June 2020, regulators announced that the UNECE regulation Automated Lane Keeping Systems will come into force from Jan’21 allowing the deployment of Level 3 in signatory countries.
Technologically, 2017 was the year of transition from Partially-automated cars (SAE L2), where drivers are in complete control with ADAS being purely assistive for safety and convenience, to Conditionally-automated ones (L3), with Audi becoming the first to introduce an Lv.3-Driving feature, the AI Traffic-Jam Pilot in the 2018MY A8. However, Audi has still not deployed the feature because they have not been granted regulatory approval and incomplete data validation.
Is Mercedes-Benz’s Level 3-Autonomy worth the 5.000 euro premium? Read more here
Level 3 systems can take over the driving and monitoring task under specific scenarios allowing the driver to be ‘’distracted’’. But the driver will still be the ultimate back-up and must remain ‘’available’’ to regain control within a few seconds of the takeover request.
Deployment of Level 3-AD is still subject to regional regulatory approval. What’s more, the regulatory and legal framework differs across leading car markets. This could result in a lack of harmonisation and require design variation, adversely impacting the adoption of higher levels of vehicle autonomy.
Lv.2-Driving availability in Europe reached 91 models in 2019 as Volume brands join in
The number of models offering Partially-automated driving capabilities in Europe, as standard or optional equipment, rose with CAGR 71% over the last 5 years to reach 73 in 2018.
Carmakers are gradually offering higher-speed functionality by expanding Cruise Assist (CA) offerings across their model range. Moreover, the number of models offering L2-Parking reached 18 in 2018, of which 13 offered Self & Remote Parkin
Partially automated (SAE Level 2) model offerings expand to the compact segment
At the same time, more carmakers are introducing Level 2 parking & driving capabilities and are expanding feature availability across their model range. What’s more important though is that L2 expands from premium large cars to the compact car segment. This breakthrough is another indicator that ADAS are no longer the privilege of flagships, premium large cars, and luxurious SUVs since regulations, consumer requirements, and competition drive the fitment of ADAS.
Autonomous Driving Technology Roadmap; ADAS Feature & Sensor Set
Level 3 and L4 require augmented sensing capabilities thus additional front sensors are expected to become part of the ADAS sensor set to enhance robustness. Lidar and/or high-definition radars are expected to become the norm for this, as Audi A8’s lidar above, but not everybody is going this direction. For example, Tesla’s HW for the Enhanced Autopilot, which claims L3-4 capability does not include a lidar. The figures below present a representative (but not exclusive) set of building blocks, i.e., supporting ADAS driving and parking features, to enable higher levels of autonomy. Another key component for these feature roadmaps is the required sensor set for each level of automation presented below.
Autonomous Driving regulation shifts from testing to deployment but standardisation will be a challenge
The transition from driver-centric regulation to Autonomous Driving Systems is necessary for the deployment of higher levels of vehicle autonomy. Amendment of international regulations as well as national traffic laws will soon give the green light for deployment but will there be regional inconsistencies between what’s legal and what’s not?
Clear guidance on the safe and secure development, testing and deployment of AV technologies is necessary as well as harmonisation of homologation standards or vehicle certification in order to comply with safety standards.
Table of Contents
- Status of Autonomous Driving Technologies Deployment by driving & parking features
- Status of Automate Driving regulation
- OEM Strategies & business models in Automated Driving
- From Assisted to Autonomous: L2 – L4 Roadmap from leading OEMs
- Carmakers ADAS & autonomous driving roadmap & outlook