The Autonomous, Intelligent & Secure Car of the Future portfolio is priced at £10,000, providing savings of 28% for the 4 reports:
- 30 Carmakers’ Roadmaps in Automated Driving up to 2025 (individually priced at £5,000)
- Automotive Cyber Security Market Forecast: the secure Connected Car (£3,259)
- Regulatory guide to Autonomous Driving, Automotive Cyber Security & V2X (£2,699)
- Rankings and market shares of Top Tier-1 ADAS Suppliers by 2020 (£2,799)
When will automated driving tech & regulation converge to allow the first L3 & L4 cars to hit the road? How do leading carmakers plan to commercialize automated driving?
We examine the current & future status of automated vehicle deployment until 2025 and analyze the strategy & technological roadmaps of 30 leading carmakers to commercialize automated driving for passenger cars.
Carmakers have unveiled their vision for the Autonomous Car of the Future but today’s technology is still “highly assistive”
- Today, drivers enjoy longitudinal and/or lateral driving assistance (SAE Level 0-2) in both parking and cruising scenarios. Conditional eyes-of-the-road (Level 3) is not permitted by regulation and traffic laws in Europe and China which has delayed or changed carmakers’ strategies.
- Carmakers have unveiled their vision of Level 5 autonomy with concepts designed from the ground up to take advantage of it (e.g. side tasks). But engineering challenges to reach higher autonomy, regulatory approval to allow deployment and consumer adoption stand in the way.
- Geo-fenced L4 in Automated-Mobility-on-Demand was launched in 2019 by Waymo but deployment in private cars follows a different roadmap
OEM strategies & business models to commercialise the Car of the Future
The approval of Level 3 automation will allow greater utilisation of the time spent inside the car. As a result, new business models arise to monetise the new opportunities in automotive insurance, such as Pay-As-You-Drive insurance, and in-vehicle infotainment, e.g. video-on-demand.
However, the commercialisation of Level 3 is uncertain given the high cost/benefit ratio, i.e. the marginal impact on safety and driver convenience from L2 compared to the massive engineering challenge. Hence, carmakers are taking different approaches to reach L4 in an attempt to gain a competitive advantage and reshape profitability.
What is more, L4/fully-automated vehicles will revolutionise transportation and mobility leading to what we call Intelligent Mobility. This includes the rising car-sharing and ride-sharing businesses as well as new vehicle ownership models in the Passenger Car market.
However, we assess that the impact on the Commercial Vehicle market will be even greater (with features such as platooning) therefore more and more carmakers shift their focus on or try to enter the mass transit and CV market. For example, Ford is now branded as a mobility company whereas Uber acquired Otto which is working on the first self-driving truck.
Finally, L4 will cause a shift in industry profits. If carmakers do not embrace tech change and invest in SW they face being merely assemblers.
Regulations for the Car of the Future
Level 3-Conditional Automation presents challenges to motor insurance due to its implications for the determination of liability. Read how Event-Data-Recorders for Automated Driving modes could help the auto insurance industry to adapt to the disruption.
Protection against cyber-physical threats, security-by-design, needs to become a priority as higher automation and connectivity will augment the vehicle’s attack vector.
Automotive Cyber Security is a big concern that is still not addressed sufficiently
Voluntary guidelines can have an immediate effect, compared to a mandate that can take 4-8 years to come into force however, they do not offer the benefits of comments etc.
What is more, enforcement is weaker. The problem is that non-binding guidelines might fail to address one of the most important issues we are facing today: retrofitting vehicles on the road with more robust security. A clearer response to if and when NHTSA will make the Vehicle Performance Guidance mandatory, with retroactive effect, could help towards retrofitting & give a clear adoption roadmap to stakeholders